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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    Except for the Johnson City area. We are the Chattanooga of northeast TN. I'm going to lobby the leaders of our city to change our name to "Downslope" City. lol
  2. tnweathernut
    Just trying to get everyone's attention in advance. "mainly in the higher elevations" is a very safe phrase to use. JMO. lol
  3. tnweathernut
    Phone has been ringing all day here. About 75% of them have been to file a claim. I need a vacation.
  4. tnweathernut
    I agree with this and have mentioned it several times. Modeling doesn't do well showing overrunning precip. Seems they are echoing that sentiment with their last sentence.
  5. tnweathernut
    I don't have much confidence in it being consistent like it used to be, but I agree. I definitely want it on board!
  6. tnweathernut
    Definitely perplexing. The Euro (before their changes a while back) was easily the best model for north america at day 5-7 and it usually wasn't close. Maybe their changes have helped their forecasting in Europe, but it's been woefully inconsistent here where we need it. lol
  7. tnweathernut
    I usually take away the two biggest and the two smallest and then take the average from the remaining.
  8. tnweathernut
    Just looking at the UK model. It's been pretty consistent regarding the snow axis the last three runs. Nice battle between the American modeling with the snow axis further southeast and the UK with the snow axis further northwest.
  9. tnweathernut
    Looking like kids are likely going to miss quite a bit of school the next two weeks.
  10. tnweathernut
    All kidding aside, i think the flow could certainly throw a clipper event this way. In fact, I'd almost expect it following the event early next week.
  11. tnweathernut
    At least we know the Euro ensembles would almost have to be better. lol
  12. tnweathernut
    Another benefit for modeling, and a reason to start centering around a general solution we can have some confidence in……….is the big wrapped up storm for tomorrow is pretty consistent among modeling now.
  13. tnweathernut
    If we continue heading this direction….. This could trend to a two part snow storm for some (maybe widespread). Overrunning followed by the main course. I won’t be surprised to see an overachiever with the overrunning….
  14. tnweathernut
    Long fetch WSW winds will be conducive to overrunning. Models don’t typically handle it well either.
  15. tnweathernut
    Apparently, you don't want to be a top 5 team playing this week. 1 and 2 fell yesterday. TN getting whipped at half. Looks like Kansas is going to have to bring home a win for the top 5 crew.
  16. tnweathernut
    Someone needs to start a thread for this system so we can have somewhere to track it or kill it off....... lol The NWS offices are talking about it, so makes sense to pull the trigger.
  17. tnweathernut
    Only caution would be this isn't a full gulf tap with a strong low. It's an overrunning look. I have no clue if it makes a difference how the Euro handles QPF, but it's a different setup for sure .
  18. tnweathernut
    I think until we get superstorm number two out of the way, we won't really have a good handle for what is to follow. I also think the chances for something wintry in the week after superstorm number two is more likely than not. JMO, will be fascinating to watch it play out.
  19. tnweathernut
    The precip panels on the GEFS have also been showing another system during that time frame......... pretty consistently.
  20. tnweathernut
    Welcome to the forum! I'm not Carvers, but I have some time and can answer the question. Hope this helps. Each model run generates individual ensemble members, each of which represents a slightly different possible future evolution of the weather based on small perturbations introduced into the initial conditions. By running the model at different times and with these perturbations, the GFS ensemble provides a more comprehensive picture of the potential range of future weather scenarios and their associated probabilities. Here's how it works: Base model runs: The GFS model itself is run four times per day, starting at the aforementioned UTC timestamps. Ensemble generation: For each base model run, ensemble members are generated by introducing slight variations in the initial conditions, such as temperature, pressure, and wind speed. These variations represent the uncertainties inherent in the initial data and atmospheric processes. Forecast calculations: Each ensemble member then evolves independently through the model, simulating the atmosphere's future state under slightly different conditions. This creates a range of possible weather forecasts for each forecast lead time. Therefore, when you access GFS ensemble forecasts, they represent the combined information from multiple model runs and multiple ensemble members, providing a more nuanced picture of the potential future weather than any single forecast could offer. It's important to remember that even with the ensemble approach, weather forecasts are inherently uncertain, and the range of possibilities represented by the ensemble can increase as the forecast lead time gets longer. Nevertheless, GFS ensembles are a valuable tool for meteorologists and the public alike to understand the potential range of future weather events and make informed decisions.
  21. tnweathernut
    Feel better soon. We are going to need everyone at 100% rowing in the right direction to bring a snow system home........... lol Hope it passes quickly!
  22. tnweathernut
    Well the second thought I had was which one of us on the forum works for channel 4?? lol
  23. tnweathernut
    That is quite possibly the boldest, and probably dumbest thing a major news station could put out for something a week away.............. IMO. lol
  24. tnweathernut
    The insurance guy over here can't catch a break. Several hail storms the past 3 years, last years Christmas pipe buster. Now we get damaging winds across the area tomorrow, likely another round late week, followed by another pipe buster next week. I really need a break. And people wonder why their home and auto insurances are going up at the rate of double digits increases each year.
  25. tnweathernut
    Try being a Minnesota Vikings fan....... lol
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