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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    The 12z GFS sent the brutal cold sliding across southern Canada, and largely kept it out of the lower 48, except for brief incursions into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes area. It's still cold here.
  2. tnweathernut
    The wave after day 10, with energy diving in and a storm on the SE coast could be a nice Miller A for our region. It could also be snow on snow if overrunning sets up somewhere in our region a day or two before. If you want snow, you really need to cross your fingers the GFS is onto something. Most of the time, it's just ON something. Maybe the other modeling will give us some clarity as we move toward @Carvers Gap period, centered around the 5th of February. I can't remember the last time I have seen a great Atlantic and Pacific around day 10. It's usually day 13-15........ Maybe this one isnt a head fake. (insert Lucy pulling the football from Charlie Brown gif)
  3. tnweathernut
    Good posts, Carvers.. It's definitely cold at day 10, but if the 12z GFS is close to correct at 500 at 240, it would almost be a certainty for FRIGID air to come at us toward day 15. MJO phase 1-3 FTW? Around day 9, the 500 charts are pretty much a "money" look for overrunning to begin almost immediately behind the frontal passage day 9. Is it right, I don't have that confidence. Is it inside day 10...............YES!
  4. tnweathernut
    Next year has real potential, coming off a low solar year...... if I did that (moved), it would be guaranteed the mid south would get buried to their eyeballs in snow next year. Before y’all start a go fund me to move me out just know, I can’t be bought.... lol
  5. tnweathernut
    Good game, Jeff. I knew Azibuke would eat us up and spit us out.... that said, they did only call 4 of his 10-12 actual fouls. Haha. Best of luck the rest of the year!
  6. tnweathernut
    Or race the northern piece through ahead of the southern stream to help with thermals. Pretty low opportunity chance either way. It would be nice to see someone get pasted, even if it's not in our area.... I know............I know............... blasphemy.
  7. tnweathernut
    Appropriate as we head toward early February....
  8. tnweathernut
    East Tennessean’s could be in worse places than the northwest quadrant of a bombing low, especially in early Feb (speaking of the 0z Euro). Even with a lack of cold air at the surface and razor thin 850’s. Probably silly to even look at details (although it can be fun), but if you want to have a chance that’s where you’d want to be. Just having multiple models spit out sizable storms should give decent confidence for a big storm somewhere in the southeast down the line. As far as snow, with a lack of cold air in place at the surface, and no real chance for cold coming into any developing Miller A........ it would require serious luck to score anything other than rain outside of the higher elevations. We are probably talking about a dumb and dumber type “so you’re telling me there’s a chance” of luck. The upcoming patter reminds me of springtime, not mid winter.
  9. tnweathernut
    Sorry, Jeff ......but I had hoped Azibuke would have been throwing hands and suspended. That dude is going to kill us. RIP, Uros..
  10. tnweathernut
    I am not sure about day 15, but day 9-10 is lit with possibilities. Doesn't mean anything has to happen, but the general look is there on all global modeling.
  11. tnweathernut
    I didn’t even realize I was posting in the panic thread. I thought I was in the banter thread....
  12. tnweathernut
    Starting in May, Asheville NC airport will be running Monday and Friday flights to Boston on Allegiant Air. Since you can usually pick up a round trip flight for under 100.00 I may initiate a chase sometime next winter. Just thought I'd mention it now in case anyone else would be interested in considering. There's nothing like snow in your back yard, but chasing a monster would be a lot of fun....
  13. tnweathernut
    Definitely noted the HB centered ridge. Give me that and I will take my chances for scoring something down the line. It's certainly not a slam dunk for winter in the mid-south, but it increases the odds drastically. The way I look at the pattern, two weeks ago we were wondering if we'd EVER break the record warm pattern. One week ago we were salivating at the LR. Currently, we can see a different pattern coming, one light years better than the one two weeks ago, but still not a slam dunk for what we all want to see - snow. Sounds pretty typical of winter life in the mid-south which mostly includes a "hurry up and wait" philosophy.
  14. tnweathernut
    Regarding the bolded.......... Life in the mid-south. lol I feel optimistic the change next week throws us a bone. Might be a splintered chicken bone and not a meaty T-bone.... or it could simply be even worse, a bone we all choke on? If you look at the OP modeling across the board there are so many lobes of energy flying around. There is no way these models will be accurate beyond day 5. It's probably best to passively look for the next best opportunity and just hope like heck we can get something inside of 5 days.....
  15. tnweathernut
    Calling all Tennessee Vol basketball fans................. UROS has been freed and is eligible immediately. Carry on
  16. tnweathernut
    If you believe the models it appears we will soon have something to track. I know the OP's haven't been throwing out snowy solutions for the southeast, but with all the ridging shown to occur in central Canada (Manitoba, Ontario, Hudson Bay, Nunavut) this SHOULD eventually force some of these storms under us. That has historically been a pretty good spot for AN heights in correlation with a mid-south snow. I am pretty sure it was Robert (WxSouth) who mentioned this in the past. I wouldn't sleep on the storm shown on the Euro OP around hr 168-180. The height fields will almost certainly trend one direction or the other in the coming days and it wouldn't take an earth shattering amount of change to pop a winter storm somewhere from the coast toward east TN. Even if that one misses, the pattern beyond this period is night and day better than where we have been........ and should produce additional opportunity somewhere in the southeast/mid-south as we close out January. As always, any opportunity will come down to timing, but I think the odds we time something up with enough cold and a favorable storm track are better than 50/50 the last week or so of January.
  17. tnweathernut
    Anybody have a boat I can borrow? Heavy rain and 50 this AM.
  18. tnweathernut
    Your search skills are superior to mine. Thanks!! That’s similar to what I thought I remembered, but I thought (incorrectly) the GEFS upgrade was set for spring this year , not August..... Will be nice to get the ensemble upgraded like the OP. Also good to see improvement will continue for 2021 & 2023. That said, I’m not sure how much value the GEFS will have at 0z, running out to 35 days. lol
  19. tnweathernut
    Agree. The better position for a ridge needs to be near the coast, not the Rockies. LR will move around some, and we appear to be headed in a better direction.......time will tell how the LR looks will evolve.
  20. tnweathernut
    So there is a second upgrade coming for the GFS? The GFS was just upgraded in June of 2019 to a new dynamical core (FV3). I can’t find anything about the GEFS being upgraded, but i am still looking.
  21. tnweathernut
    I wasn’t aware the GEFS had been upgraded yet. I thought the upgrade was scheduled for springtime. I could have missed something though....
  22. tnweathernut
    Holston, you are the MAN! Always identifying and bringing the fantasy snow goods.
  23. tnweathernut
    I was just looking at that and wondered if you were on top of it.... lol
  24. tnweathernut
    It absolutely was. We saw 2-3" rates for 7+ hours. The forecast that day was laughable as the event unfolded. Looks like the recorded history of the event is also laughable.
  25. tnweathernut
    Guessing the 1998 storm didn't make the list due to a lighter accumulation at the airport. We had over 20 inches at my place in JC. I noticed an article from Bristol where they recorded 8". The only two options are the airport didn't record enough to qualify for their list or the snowfall wasn't properly recorded. Since I know that has been an issue in the past it wouldn't surprise me if the latter is the best option.
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