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tnweathernut

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  1. tnweathernut
    Off topic, but I remember that event. Went to bed under a WSWarning calling for 8-12 the next day. Woke up and had been upped to 12-16" and thought "here we go"........... Ended with a trace. lol
  2. tnweathernut
    Weenie Rule # 42 - don't ever get sucked in by the SREF plumes. It's almost always a trap. Christmas Eve thunder in the morning, followed by snow in the afternoon? That's what the NAM at 18z looks like for parts of east TN.
  3. tnweathernut
    but this is also a bit more generous to those in eastern middle Tennessee. Would be nice to get more on our forum into the "schmaybe" games!
  4. tnweathernut
    Just a hunch, but I think this will play better for the plateau areas toward middle TN.
  5. tnweathernut
    This might be a great thing to consider for a new pinned thread at some point down the line (similar to the useful weather links). If we could dedicate a thread to various microclimates and the different types of systems that are affected by those areas............... it might become a great resource for new members coming on board in those areas and existing members also. Off topic, but just thought I'd throw this out there.
  6. tnweathernut
    Pretty major timing difference on the 18z GFS. It shows the front pushing through and clearing Tennessee just before 7 AM Christmas Eve morning!
  7. tnweathernut
    This pattern would almost certainly put us in the game and we'd likely be tracking something, maybe even multiple events. The big question is, can we trust an 8-10 day deterministic model run......... I won't feel good about where we are headed until I'm staring at features like this at 500mb 4-5 days out.
  8. tnweathernut
    He really is a great coach. I’m glad Texas thought his best days were behind him.. TN is lucky to have him. As an aside, my wife’s cousin is on Barnes staff and was on the basketball team for 4 years (2015/16 to 2018/19). At family gatherings (not as much lately with COVID) I get to take a peek behind the curtain of UT basketball under Barnes. It’s been fun the last 5+ years.
  9. tnweathernut
    From what I understand. It’s not an NCAA investigation.........yet. It’s an internal compliance investigation for now.
  10. tnweathernut
    Meanwhile TN’s football team sucks and their basketball team is top 10 in the nation. It’s the upside down universe......
  11. tnweathernut
    Aleutian low, west coast ridge, Atlantic ridging, and a trough from central to the eastern US. If true .........the time around New Years will have to be watched for winter fun.
  12. tnweathernut
    So is Dr No trying to turn into Dr Yes for once? 12z looks a lot better....
  13. tnweathernut
    Welcome back to east TN. Good to have you in here. You sure move a lot. lol
  14. tnweathernut
    The GFS at 12z remains extremely consistent in its presentation of rain changing to a heavy quick thump of snow. Of course it could also easily be consistently wrong too. Chattanooga gets in on the action so we can probably toss... just ask Jeff, lol. speaking for the eastern 2/3 of the state. West TN is still getting the shaft. :-(
  15. tnweathernut
    Normally, I'd agree with you, but I believe this low is the powerhouse responsible for whipping that cold front through! We just need the southern low to develop along the front in just the right place as a result of the energy diving toward the Gulf of Mexico. Sure beats watching a front simply blast through.
  16. tnweathernut
    Yeah, that one is just ahead of Winter Weenie Handbook Rule #35. This one says to cut accumulations in half and then divide by 0. The last part of this rule gets us almost every time.... On topic.... glad to see the major globals all spitting the chance for at least some snow in the air and what looks like a lock for a cold Christmas. Snow or no, it should at least feel Christmasy.
  17. tnweathernut
    I sure don't remember being in a winter storm watch up here in northeast TN, but it's possible i missed it with work keeping me busy. I figured the mountains were the only ones under winter storm watches for the system a couple of weeks back.
  18. tnweathernut
    Good luck over that way... hope some from west to middle TN find a surprise or two with this one.
  19. tnweathernut
    12z Euro also very close to a big storm for northeast TN and is a big storm for the NC mountains, SW Va and points northeast......
  20. tnweathernut
    Weak (Miller A) system to our southeast with a robust moisture field is my favorite setup for snow. Usually mutes the dreaded warm nose, and in this particular case with temps about as marginal as they come .....would likely be the best case scenario providing the best chance at something other than rain for the elevated and far eastern areas.
  21. tnweathernut
    Regarding the potential early week system............ all hail the GFS? Maybe it will win this battle, but not the war (later in the week)?
  22. tnweathernut
    I noticed that too. A compromise solution at 500 wouldn't surprise me. The only problem with a compromise would be knowing the surface reflection would be poo poo.
  23. tnweathernut
    Great discussion, guys! I have been super busy, but have really enjoyed following along when time permits. John, I agree, events like this will eventually happen again. Sure looks like old biases may be at play looking at the GFS vs. the EURO from last night. GFS is very progressive at 500 (the surface reflects this too). Just wants to blast everything through the TN Valley and be done with it. The Euro tends to overly amp in the long range, but this seems to be sprouting much closer in time, so does that bias really apply here? Genesis of the trailing frontal (northwest gulf) low in response to the energy at 500 begins shortly after hour 100 (not exactly way out in time). I think this will be a fascinating early season model dual between the new and improved GFS, and the once almighty Euro (snow vs. no snow outcome aside). If the brief west coast ridging can hold on just a bit longer, it should give the energy at 500 more of a chance to dig toward the gulf coast (like the euro at 0z) and develop a southeast storm system. If the Pacific blasts in and collapses the ridging we probably see something closer to the progressive look on the GFS. Fairly minor differences at 500mb (18,000 feet up) between the GFS and Euro, but major differences at the surface where we live. As an aside, I am loving the looks of higher pressures in the NAO region. Feels a bit like finding a unicorn December through the end of February these days.......
  24. tnweathernut
    System in the southwest stays closed and almost stationary as if to say........ woah, good buddy just do your thing. I’ll hang out here for a while”
  25. tnweathernut
    The next piece of energy is robust, but not much separation at 150. Let’s see how the monster vortex in the eastern US tangos with that piece...
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