tnweathernut

If you got downsloped with this last system in northeast TN, and you’ve seen several runs of the CMC tease SE/far east TN with next weeks system, you’d be ok with a bit of a northwest trend and a shot at a light snow event. Im guessing these guys/gals are willing to sacrifice historic gulf coast snow for it. Pretty sure those guys moved down there so they wouldn’t see snow anyway……. lol Besides, when was the last time Jeff scored twice in a 10 day period??

I mean, it’s not like the last 6 runs of the GFS is staying put…….there is a definite trend at the surface. Looking at 500 there’s a limit how far north and west this can make it, but getting scraped isn’t out of the question for some, IMO.

Sounds like we need to put the once reliable Euro on Prozac...

I specifically had you in mind when I made the post…… lol

Was just thinking about that yesterday. In the "snowless" 90's northeast TN saw three separate foot plus events. Not once since I can recall. Pretty crazy.

Wasn't it several years ago when the gulf coast states did pretty well when our area couldn't buy a snow? Maybe back in the mid 20 teens? I agree this has deep south and Carolinas written all over it. Would be nice to see our new poster in east central MS get pounded. Unless they are a Lane Kiffin fan and then in that case, 33 and rain. I kid, I kid. :-)

Just popping in to say we won't hit 1 out of 100 long lead winter events, but you can probably bank on having 5X better odds for the 300 hour 12z GFS severe event it's throwing at us for the 29th of Jan. Goofy usually backs into 1 out of 20 events in that regard, even when the first 180 hours are beyond screwed up and totally wrong. lol

If it's still there on the EURO AI at 0z and also still there on the Canadian there is probably a reason for a thread for the Sunday system, IMO. Especially if one more model jumps on board (i.e. ICON, GFS, EURO). In addition to the AI and GEM, there are hints of it on the normally biased progressive modeling and we are working our way under hour 96. JMO

"Past climate data shows that temperatures this cold only happen about once every 2 to 3 years in the area." Am i mistaken, or will we have we had Cold Weather Advisory criteria for 3 STRAIGHT years if next weeks cold comes to pass?

Fixed it for them ....

It's probably the second best thing northeast TN excels with. The first is dryslots and downsloping. haha

The ultimate ultimate slap in the face (in addition to the above) would be 72-96 straight hours of below freezing cold with some below zero stuff, only to warm up and rain 24 hours later. lol

Would be a kick in the pants to see so many underperform on the last storm and then watch areas of the deep south find a foot plus next week while we see flurries and pipe busting cold. lol Kidding aside, my money is on a trough that is further west and a track that adjusts further north and west with time also. The GEFS seems to be hinting at this the last several runs. I guess time will tell.

The AI has been all over GA low development Sunday across GA on the tail end of the cold front for a couple of days now. VERY consistent from what I have seen. Doesn't mean it has to happen, but I've been intrigued by its consistency since it's a sneaky little 2-4 or 3-6 potential snow system for east TN that's now working inside of day 4ish.

Was just about to say something similar. A high impact event is becoming more likely. Figuring out where (assuming things continue to progress toward an event) will cause all kinds of headaches the next several days, but ensembles will be what I'm looking at the most.