ariof

This event is like Pedro facing the NL all-stars in 1999: All whiffs.

The radar shows a mix up to the Notch, but the Cranmore webcam shows SN. Looks like the Coos County Line is the boundary on radar

The deformation band over YYZ looks impressive based on the traffic maps. Toronto doesn't get lots of big storms; they average about as much snow as BOS but to get a storm of this magnitude sort of requires this odd track. I can't find full data but they haven't had a calendar day with >12" of snow since 1999. Everyone appears to have gone to work per webcams, so they're a couple of spinouts from a Dec, 2007 in Boston where the plows can't keep up and everyone gets snowed in. They won't have a Virginia situation, probably, because people have snow tires and generally know how to handle snow.

Cheap high at KBOS this evening; it was 26˚ at 2000 and now 34˚ and climbing. Quite a gradient roughly along Route 1 north of 128 per wundermap stations; 33 east of it, 22 west, and temps climbing over the course of the hour likely given the wind shift. Those stations (this one for example) in the mid-30s were in the mid-10s at 2000.

I've made the drive over 101 from Peterborough to Keene many times. Often green grass on either side and a foot of snow up the hill. The microclimates of 1000' of elevation in southern/central New England are very real. There's also the northwest-of-the-Whites snow hole. It's colder there, but anything with an easterly fetch gets dried up.

Since a lot of it is a nat gas issue they should probably be everywhere they can telling people that if it gets real cold to turn the heat down to 60. No need to bust pipes, but if enough people went from 68 to 60 it would save a good deal of gas which could be put back into the electricity system. Doubt they'll try that, though. Now, if a few prissy folks on the Cape and Vineyard hadn't been tilting at windmills for the last two decades, we'd have a lot of extra generation power offshore for much of the cold events.

Between hours 60 and 72 the NAM SLP moves west by 0.75˚ of latitude. Which would be fine if it weren't starting over ORF.

I'd take that snowfall map. But, yeah, there's a long way to go with this one.

I think that was more of a "no one believes this" but yes it was forecast several days out. The numbers kept going up, I too remember 6-12" the night before (afternoon high of 63) and 10-14" the morning of. I think it took some time to change over on the coast, KBOS only reported 3" on the 31st but MQE had 15". Yeah climo would not suggest 2'+ that time of year. If it happened today this site would mostly be posts about sun angle.

IIRC we walked out of middle school wondering where the snow had come from. No one as prepared. And this was only a few months after April when the mets had called for a changeover between 1600 and 1800 and it changed at 1030.

Yeah I was driving SYR-BOS the day before that and had to leave early to make sure I didn't get caught in it. From various notes, logs and memories it stayed mostly snow NW of a LEB-IZG line. The wikipedia page for that is mostly about the severe wx down south, but has a nice shot of the satellite. Looks like it was over TN, so it must have bounced east.

It's (ic)on

At 72H, the NAM has a 1033 high over BGM, the 06Z GFS at 78H has the same high but centered north of BML. What's 300 miles between friends anyway?

AVP-DDH-[end of run] to ISP-BOS-PWM

ICON and NAM looked quite similar at 84H … and quite different from the GFS at 90H. Of course …

SLP: GFS: AOO-MDT-YUL ECMWF: DCA-ALB-YSC I'd rather have something else, but I guess the Euro > GFS

1-2' of snow on ski country on Monday evening after MLK weekend is … not the best timing for them.

Congrats to the Berkshires and anyone from Monadnock north on the Euro.

Does the CMC usually get stuck at 96H?

AT 36 HOURS THE 18Z GFS THE VORT MAX OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS 50 MILES NORTHWEST OMG GUYS IT'S COMING!

Ski competitions also use salt to melt soft snow so it freezes more easily when temperatures drop. Sochi almost didn't have enough of the right kinds of salt.

In the past 100 years there was that, a 1 in '94, a 0 in '81, -2 in '68, 1 in '62 and 0 in '57. And that was only other time with consecutive winters above 0. The 2016 cold snap to -16 at ORH and -9 at BOS (in both cases, coldest since 1957) is still impressive since it was such an otherwise lackluster winter. Especially when it went to 53˚ two days later.

Probably looking at what happened about 500 miles down I-95. Put out a watch to make people pay some attention, especially for the first "storm" of the season. Of course, it happened somewhere with an average snowfall of about 10" and a bunch of people who have no idea what to do when a flurry hits (and no snow tires).

EC will be in the Bahamas tonight.

Toggling back and forth this NAM run at 84h looks most like the 00Z CMC run which was … hefty.