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Are the NAM thermals onto a sliver of SN+ over SNE tomorrow morning? Are some folks going to wake up surprised to see some springtime paste before the #sunangle gets to work? Or are they back smoking something?

Not to the Fairbanks extreme for, like, mid-January, but pretty darned cold for March. FAI is currently sitting at -15.5° for March. The previous coldest March was -6.6°. The next week will be warmer, with an average around 0, but they should still wind up around -10 for the month, which will easily be their coldest month on record. And that was after their coldest December since 1980, and cold Jan and Feb, so their DJFM will be anomalies of -19, -6, -7 and -20. Plus a lot of snow, they were already above average and Feb dropped 39" (their average is 10"). They should be in the top 10 years with >30" of snow depth (48 days as of yesterday) Pretty deep winter up there. ANC has been warmer until this month, but got 40" of snow in January and this month is running a -15 anomaly. While FAI had one day above average (by like 0.1°) ANC is at like 34 days below average and will add to that for the foreseeable future (they're not progged above freezing for at least a week, and should be at ~ the third longest such streak). And down in Juneau the story is more the snow. 82" in a -12 Dec (depth of 50") which was gone by Jan 15 after a week of rain, but 28" in Feb and 52" so far this month and they're sitting at 184" for the year, 10" off the record, and they should be close by the end of next week. This guy's feed is a pretty good compendium of how cold it has been up there this winter. (Things like "Juneau has had more snow than Fairbanks and Anchorage combined, and both of them are above their averages.")

18Z DGEX!

Quite the CAD in the lee of the Whites. 41˚ at KMWN, warmer than anything in basically an Ossipee-Bridgton-Crawfords triangle. Although anyone over about 1000' AMSL is warmer. Meanwhile KHIE is 58˚.

74° in Boston and the Charles is still frozen. In 2015 when it was frozen a good deal more solid it didn't melt out until April 1. Of course, the first 70+ reading at BOS that year was May 4.

First winter with DJF all below 60˚ (although barely, the pre-xmas Gricn hit 59˚ in BOS) since 2013-2014. After Feb 2015 (high of 39˚) every Feb was above 60˚ until last year (53˚) and this year (49˚). I'll take it.

Does anyone know why KBOS stopped reporting daily snow depth in the late 1990s? This year would be in the top 10, except the data cuts off around 2000. 1977 and 1978 both had two solid months, and 1994 and 1996 both had 30+ days. I have to assume 2015 would be right near the top of the list. KMQE does have data going back longer, right now is sitting at 46 days, 29th longest. Longer this century: 56 (2001), 70 (2015), 77 (2011), 84 (2003). Record of 100 ending 3/23/1923.

HRRR has SEMass (Plymouth and Bristol counties) radiating more than anyone tonight. Soundings for 11Z show 20˚ at the surface and 50˚ juuuust above the surface. Cranberry bog special. TAN and MVY already down to 30˚, OWD at 32˚. Cranberry bog special!

That band hitting Boston right when everyone goes out on the road is going to be fun. Kendall Sq is <1 SM already and not even in that band yet.

The NE Banana Belt today is BTV to MLT, 10-15° warmer than ORE-EEN area (and warmer than anywhere in SNE). Morch #sunangle doing it's job.

DJF with 8.6" of SN at BOS, and monthly anomalies of 4.3, 4.2 and 5.5. That whole winter was Morch.

SN/SN+ in Kendall Square. Viz <1 mi (probably around 3/4 based on which building outlines I can and can't see).

Roads in CT look pretty awful, with everyone going back to work and the storm hitting right at rush hour. 2:15 to go 31 miles from Bridgeport to Rye. Ugly.

Today is day 32 below 42° in Boston in a row. Longer periods: 43 (ending 2015-03-03) 42 (1969-03014) 40 (1936-02-25) 39 (1985-02-09) 37 (1945-02-10) 36 (1981-01-18) 35 (1966-02-09) 35 (1875-02-02) 34 (2011-02-05) 34 (1901-02-25) 33 (2009-01-31) Not a lot of modeling showing it going above 40 in the next week, although the sun angle may start to help.

I heard the same thing. 40 is not out of the question!

Report from Mass Pike from 05Z-08Z last night: Snow began around ALB, west of there was clear sailing (a bit of -SN near BUF which dried out as the storm wrapped in dry air out there). Heavy band over the Berkshires, probably some upsloping. Lots of trucks pulling off at Blandford, and we went down the hill on our own. Picked up series of plows east of there, could make about 45 mph when we didn't have plows and the plows went 15 mph, but were helpful. Varying intensity of -SN to +SN, some drifting but not actually too bad. Accumulation got much lighter around 128, last 10 miles into Boston were fine. If Avis hadn't had a miles-long line in CLE (Hertz saved us, eventually) we would have been nearly an hour ahead of things and probably that would have cascaded to hitting snow further east and having an easier time. But still we beat the worst of the weather, friends made it to Maine. I don't think the Pike east of ORH would be reasonable now.

Let me say that this Cory fellow has a heck of a track record. When do we set up a gofundme to send him out of town the days before Christmas next year? We'll get the Grinch to jump over the BM with that!

BGR and BTV might be the only commercial fields in New England to see flights on Monday.

If they are coming in the morning … they might get canceled. If they are coming in the afternoon … they should be fine. If they think they are going to find an open seat … ha.

Good luck to anyone trying to fly to the East Coast. Everything canceled starting around 18Z tomorrow, Monday, and I'd guess Tuesday AM as well. The closest we can get before Tuesday is Cleveland. At least we can get there in time to get a rental car to get to BOS before the snow begins (it will be tight on the Pike). Have friends who think they are coming into BOS on Monday. Ha!

I was out of cell range for several hours and came back and … they are still pooh-poohing this in the AFD and headlines. This is 10 hours out of date, 45 hours before the start of the event! 36 hour by morning, on a weekend. This is going to be a surprise for a lot of people. (The airlines have had travel waivers up for a day.)

I have a friend who works in a different NWS office and their AFDs are great. It would be quite interesting to train an LLM on the past 25 years of AFDs (I think that's as far back as the dataset goes) and show differences between offices, etc. I also think that offices should put out weekly-or-more-often podcasts called "The ____ Area Forecast Discussion" which is basically a 10 to 20 minute discussion of that week's upcoming weather, with the added benefit of getting in a bunch of people's podcast feeds so you could push emergency announcements out that way as needed for higher-impact scenarios. But that kind of useful thing ain't gonna happen with this administration axing everything they can (although apparently so many people took retirement, etc that NWS is hiring again; apparently the Texas floods got people's attention).

I have been surprised at how much BOX has been pooh-poohing this, and a lot of other media, too. Rather than communicating uncertainty, they're doing the "no big impact but it could come north maybe." Even at their 1834Z AFD was "it's just going to hit the Cape and South Coast nbd." They must be furiously typing out the next AFD now, I hope?

Today was modeled well into the 40s in EMA for several days and everyone is stuck in the 30s.

I'm flying in from ORD at 2130 and would like to get in before all the flights are canceled if this verifies.