alex

Nice week to be back. Still snowing and it seems like we should see on and off snow pretty much all week!

I know... we usually don’t get much of that, and if we do it’s in October lol. It is pretty, though!

The difference in skiing is amazing. First time skiing glades without stumps and branches everywhere. The stuff is like Sierra cement, couldn’t ask for a better base. Still snowing “in waves” but still not very “fluffy”

And snowing heavily again

6.8” upslope overnight, about 2.5” of slop yesterday

Nice plastering overnight. Resort reports 14” “+”. Should really help conditions!

Some pretty good downsloping here - ripped snow with strong wind but always a tad warm, and shot up to 37 now. Not unusual in these setups as we wait for the upslope to kick in. Fingers crossed!

Getting warmer wetter and lighter snow

Pretty wild out there

P&C has us at 7-15 through Sunday. That would make a big difference for winter sports

Winter Storm Warning is up!

Wildcat has a very high elevation base area; my thinking is that they will do well with the storm and not as well with the upslope - so if the goal is to go out tomorrow, it’s probably a good choice!

That’s actually VERY true. Nonetheless, I feel good about this one. May not be perfect but we may be looking at a lot more open terrain next week

Is this where I start bragging that I called for snow > dryslot > upslope about 3 days ago?

Wow we are exactly at the same elevation.

GYX seems to have heard us: In the mountains, the air mass will initially be cold enough for wintry precipitation through perhaps half of the event. Using a blend of column temperatures to derive precip type and amounts, the potential exists for a plowable amount of snow/sleet in the White mountains northeastward to Rangeley and Jackman. These areas will likely mix with sleet and perhaps a few pockets of freezing rain before eventually going over to a cold rain before ending. Winter weather advisories may be needed for these areas. Winds may be an issue as well, mainly on the coast. Much of the model suite has converged on a stronger southeasterly LLJ on the immediate coast Saturday, with values up to 65 knots at 950 MB. Inverted low levels will keep these highest winds aloft, however forecast soundings are showing some degree of steep lapse rates below 950mb which will be capable of mixing down 30-35 knot gusts on the coast Saturday. Not completely out of the question that we`ll need a wind advisory there which is generally issued for 26 kt sustained winds and/or 40 knot gusts. Most of the steady, heavy precipitation shuts off as the afternoon progresses on Saturday. Thereafter, we`ll have strong NW flow in place along with upslope snow showers in the mountains through Sunday night. Could get several inches of snow in favored areas such as W/NW facing slopes. Thereafter, fair weather is expected through Tuesday night.

Even the NAM solution would mean (if that) bare ground for a few hours followed by upslope. It’s not like we have that much to lose. A 5” snowpack would be very easy to make up in an upslope area. But if course, it’s the NAM at 84 hrs so I wouldn’t expect much reliability (nor at 60, for that matter)

I have to admit, that’s all I look at which may explain my positive thinking. Also, if you ignore the AFD and just look at the P&C you get this which is nothing like the AFD lol

Hard to imagine that much QPF (either way) from a low passing so close to us if not over our head. I would think snow > drizzle/dry slot > upslope would be more likely. But maybe I’m wrong?

I think we see a net gain. And that's usually the case with most cutters anyways, unless they really flood us with warm air. It seems that the most likely scenario is snow to a mix/dryslot to backend upslope -> net result, we gain. That's based on my abysmal knowledge of weather and about 37 seconds spent looking at models; should really go a long way to make you feel better.

Lol. We are on the same boat on that river they want us rafting down

They're happening again... But lighter. But at least there's something in the spot lights, ha. What's the point of having spotlights otherwise?

The snowy P&C warms the heart but doesn't open glades unless it actually materializes. So if you could keep the grids as is and make sure it's in fact all snow, that'd be great! Jokes aside, it's not really meant as a criticism even though it sounds like it. I can't imagine how hard it is to capture the uncertainty and all the variables inherent to forecasting over such a long period and wide area. One day that you're bored I'd love to hear how the system actually works... It seems fascinating!

It's a bit strange though that with such a high probability of rain in the AFD there is not even a mention in the P&C. The two seem completely disconnected

1.5" overnight... Better than expected