Chinook

HRRR says the temperature will decrease from 66 to 63 for me during the eclipse.

Here's something intereting. There's a relative minimum of EF2+ tornadoes and total tornadoes in Missouri. On the third chart shown, I have chosen the wind probability climatology for June 24th. It is well known that June has the maximum number of wind reports of any month across the US. This chart shows the wind damage reports maximize at Kansas, also, what I'll call "Derecho Alley," from Iowa to Ohio. Also, the southern Appalachians have a maximum of wind reports. Thunderstorms are numerous in the southern Appalachians but sometimes there is not high deep-layer shear in summer. On the fourth chart you can see the hail over 1" maximizes in the central Plains, pretty much lines up with traditional tornado alley. The area with the maximum number of hail-days (of any hail size) is at Cheyenne, Wyoming to the Nebraska high plains and over to Goodland, Kansas (Not shown) Final map: total number of days of severe hail of over 1"

this might be getting worse for north central OH, better for Toledo. Last couple of NAM runs have varying cloud cover for NW Ohio. It's possible there could be a decrease in surface-based clouds(cumulus clouds) closer to totality due to lack of heating. I think this could make a difference for Indiana/Ohio and down to Arkansas but not for thicker cloud areas. 45 % humidity at the lower levels (OH/IN border) may help some cumulus clouds to form. The models have some upper level moisture, so that could be some cirrus clouds

5 years ago: (mar 13 2019) was NOT the big one (that is 2021), but a plains blizzard

if the eclipse were right now

I haven't seen a flood for a while. apparently we got 0.5ft over minor flood stage

this is more of a cold upper-air event, which might be called a "bora," which is one of two downslope wind types (katabatic and adiabatic, Foehn and Bora, from the Alps in Europe.) NW wind gusts of 41 kt next to SE wind gusts of 38 kt

A while ago, I downloaded these ECMWF-ERA reanalysis charts of 4/3/74. 500mb heights show a strong closed low in Kansas, with high wind flow (18z) There was CAPE up to 2400 J/kg in the South, but less CAPE in the north Ohio Valley, but still enough for severe weather. Normally NCEP reanalysis doesn't show high CAPE values as much as actually happened locally on warm days (this is the ECMWF, so I'm not sure how that performs on this, though) 0-6km of 50 kt to 100kt, as such strong 500mb winds rotated around the trough There were dew points of the low 60's to low 70's, with a dryline or cold front type feature, out in front of some 40's dew points in Kansas very low pressure in Iowa, with high low-level winds 0-1km shear values of 30kt to 50kt are a huge component in 0-1km storm relative helicity, highly linked to tornadoes. (large area of 40kt values)

tornado at Conyers Georgia, by Atlanta. Also, tornado by Clanton Alabama (0403z). Thankfully I don't believe there's been a lot of storm reports down south. But these could be as dangerous as any night time tornado!

I'm glad this wasn't a major disaster. Models/SPC also had quite a few chances for big storms down to Mississippi, but that didn't work out much.

Possible tornado Buckeye Lake- Gratiot Ohio

confirmed tornado at the Ohio River

Funnel cloud at Covington

Ryan Hall showed pictures of damage in eastern West Virginia

confirmed tornado near Louisville

four severe warnings getting going in Indiana

possible tornado near Dallas Fort Worth, also, hail reports from other storms shown

this is a confirmed tornado outside of Tulsa

this is a confirmed tornado at or near Chesterfield Missouri, near St Louis

storms with weak rotation have put out 2" hail and one 88mph wind gust this afternoon

This isolated storm has left a swath of hail reports in Illinois.

According to a couple of models, the southernmost supercells could be by Dallas (possibly without the higher storm-relative helicity values)

this is last night's radar with my picture of a bird head

Top synoptic analogs vary greatly in severe weather coverage. Most analogs here have some severe weather reports in Arkansas. There are not necessarily a lot of tornado analogs. As for now, I am not sure what I might want to post with the models. Instability seems a bit low. 84-hours

scattered thunderstorms in various areas near this warm front