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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Tornadoes seem to hate Oklahoma (again) this season. Back in 2014, a grand total of 13 tornadoes it Oklahoma through the whole calendar year, i.e. much below normal for that state. tornadoes haven't come much north of I-70 in April
  2. Chinook
    The 00z has 42 degrees in Toledo with over 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. That could be a pretty nasty situation with cold temps, thunder, rain, small hail.
  3. Chinook
    The NAM has 65-66 degree dew points into SE Oklahoma Monday. My guess is that the SPC will issue a slight risk on Monday. Until a couple of days ago, the GFS runs had basically no CAPE for Monday. But now I think a localized hail/wind threat is possible.
  4. Chinook
    SPC has an outlook (15%) for Day-4 Arkansas, Day-5, AL/MS/TN. The GFS has over 1000 J/kg of CAPE at 12z on Wednesday, in Arkansas. Synoptic details will probably change a lot, but that's a lot of CAPE for 12z in the winter.
  5. Chinook
    Thrall, TX
  6. Chinook
    I have not heard of any damage report, but here is the warning - THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... * UNTIL 1115 PM CST * AT 1038 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SAN ANTONIO INT AP, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
  7. Chinook
    I figured this might be relevant for anybody interested in Houston's heavy rain.
  8. Chinook
    There is a reference to CASA radar in this tornado warning. This could be a dangerous situation if there is a tornado on the ground near the metro area. (not sure if a tornado is on the ground)
  9. Chinook
    tornado reported at Laguna Park
  10. Chinook
    The SPC has put out a slight risk for severe weather in mid-Texas tomorrow. Some NAM forecast soundings west of San Saba at 00z Monday (36 hrs) show 1000 J/kg of CAPE, 59 kt effective shear, 410 m2/s2 effective SRH. Convection-allowing models all seem to have a squall line around San Angelo.
  11. Chinook
    It looks like the CAPE will be higher at nighttime than in the daytime. There might be a half-dozen storm reports at 4:00AM. The convection-allowing models show showers and thunderstorms traveling or developing some 300mi+ eastward across Texas in the time frame of 06z to 12z. There could be a number of severe storms. It would be very climatologically unusual for a severe storm at 3:00AM on January 2nd.
  12. Chinook
    NWS Cleveland created a map and a snowfall summary for the lake effect snow that happened recently http://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20161208-1210_LakeEffectSnow
  13. Chinook
    flash flood threat in New Mexico. WPC mesoscale precip. discussion: SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN AZ INTO WRN NM INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... CONTINUED TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO WRN NM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALIZED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR.
  14. Chinook
    Typhoon Haima, now a lot weaker, is approaching Hong Kong, and the large ragged eye is visible on Hong Kong radar. JTWC predicts it will make landfall ENE of Hong Kong.
  15. Chinook
    Colorado State/CIRA web page for Typhoon Haima. You can click on archive, that is a link underneath each current picture. If you want to look at how this storm developed, pick begin and end frames for different types of satellite loops. note: enhanced IR images should give you lots of frames to loop. You could also view individual pictures since the beginning of the storm. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP252016
  16. Chinook
    In my opinion, it looks like it has a 40nm wide eye and -80C temps in the CDO region, all the way around the eye. I think there might have been some -90C temps in the CDO earlier today. this is from the Typhoon Haima JTWC discussion #17.
  17. Chinook
    another beautiful picture (water vapor channel) of these two terrible storms. Typhoon Sarika made landfall today on Luzon Island, Philippines. It may have brought a large amount of flooding, but I did not check news sources about this. Typhoon Haima takes up the center of this image, with cirrus outflow extending from the equator to 20deg north
  18. Chinook
    Blame it on the TV show
  19. Chinook
    JTWC Prognostic Reasoning on Typhoon Megi (75 kt)
  20. Chinook
    Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan.
  21. Chinook
    WPC forecast has 2.0" for Oklahoma City, Lubbock in 5 days, 1.75" for Kansas City. Kansas City and Wichita have already been very wet in the last 3 weeks.
  22. Chinook
    New JTWC forecasts take it south of Taiwan, meaning that there could be a greater wind speed when it reaches China (perhaps 105kt) near Chaozhou-Jieyang-Shantou metro. Shantou harbor is next to the sea, urban population 5.3 million.
  23. Chinook
    I thought the Japanese were beginning recon in 2017 (after many years of no recon.)
  24. Chinook
    JTWC now forecasts Meranti to be 160 kt in 6 hrs (2:00AM Eastern). Isn't that close to Haiyan's peak intensity?
  25. Chinook
    recent landfalls on Taiwan Typhoon Soudelor (early August 2015) Typhoon Dujuan (late September 2015) Typhoon Nepartak (early July 2016)
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