Chinook

I am seeing the velocities ramp up after Pachuta, Mississippi.

Possible tornado near Gorgas, AL (west of Birmingham) right now. This storm has tracked northeastward from Reform, AL area, with continuous tornado warnings.

by the way, the Hattiesburg area has had several tornadoes EF1-EF5 since 2000. Hattiesburg is in the middle of this image.

looks like 1-mile wide debris signature (Darbun, MS, west of Hattiesburg)

possible tornado at Oak Grove LA

These are the NAM-3km updraft helicity swaths out to 27 hours (03z Monday.) The NAM seems to like the idea of several storms in Arkansas, as opposed to MS/AL. I am not sure this is necessarily the most accurate depiction. Convection-allowing models are kind of all over the place with convection in MS. They seem to have a bit more agreement on several storms being MS/AL border near 00z, possibly extending the storms up towards Huntsville.

Models are generally showing a deeper warm sector developing near a low pressure/warm front on Easter Sunday, 12z. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of outlook for central/east Texas on Saturday. As for Sunday, I would expect possibly an enhanced outlook for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

I believe we should start a new general severe weather thread, since it's a new decade.

Will storm chasers even be able to stay in hotels? I guess campgrounds could be open.

A confirmed tornado was at Troy Alabama earlier, at 15:36z (Troy Airport)

With this severe weather threat moving east, Valdosta/Moody AFB radar is not working at this time.

It looks like a tornado tracked from Baker Hill, AL (south of Eufaula,) to Springvale GA.

With a 986mb low over Iowa, and 60-65F dew points from Louisiana up to Springfield IL/Davenport IA, I believe the SPC will have to give a slight risk outlook for the entire cold front and adjacent areas. Especially with 75 kt winds at 500mb over this region.

Anybody know if there has been any confirmed damage at Triana to Owens Cross Roads AL?

As for now, this is a radar-confirmed tornado warning at Sewanee.

It looks like this storm north of Huntsville is trying to develop a stronger rotation

The southern supercell near Vina, AL is ramping up with stronger rotation and a tornado warning.

Thunderstorms near Tupelo MS seem to be increasing in intensity quickly.

It seems quite likely that scattered severe storms will move across Tennessee and Kentucky, as well as adjacent areas of Mississippi and Alabama. According to most CAMs, the storms may be quite late in the day, with some stronger storms at 00z (8:00PM eastern/7:00PM central). With strong wind fields aloft, these storms will have fast movement, and I would expect a wind/tornado threat

Why not use math? The 10% tornado area is 113,928 sq mi, the 5% tornado area is 140,381 sq mi, and the 2% tornado area is 168,806 sq mi. The SPC system forecasts a probability that any one point in a certain zone will see a report within 25 miles. That means that each point in space is something of a 25 mi radius storm-report-detector. A 25-mi radius circle takes up (pi)*(25)^2 square miles of area. Aside from using more advanced methods of statistics, let's just apply simple math. The number of 25 mile circles covered by the 10% outlook is 58.02, and likewise, 71.50 circles, and 85.97 circles. Then (58.02)*(0.10)+(71.50)*(0.05)+(85.97)*(0.02) = 11.1 tornadoes. 11 seems like a possible number of tornadoes. Qualitatively, I think it's reasonable to say the 10% risk for a large section of the Ohio Valley/Mississippi may seem too much. Otherwise, using real statistical methods may calculate a different number of expected tornadoes.

The SPC has increased the wind risk to 30% and tornado risk to 10% into southern Indiana and Illinois. Some of the convection-allowing models show updraft helicity tracks in IN/IL late at night, well after 00z.

There could be a TDS near Ash Flat, AR. It's kind of tough to say, with all radars being far away from that area.

Here's an interesting slightly new plot type from SPC HREF- Max and Min (highly negative) updraft helicity tracks. As has been discussed, there is a range of possibilities with supercells/ elevated supercells tomorrow. The SPC may move the risk area farther north into parts of Indiana.

The 00z models are in the process of finishing up the forecasts for tomorrow. At this time, I don't think there's a need to extend the slight risk much north of Cincinnati OH. The 00z HRRR may be unrealistic about deep convection near Indianapolis. I'm not sure. Maybe elevated CAPE could produce some hail near Indianapolis.

I am wondering if we should start a new medium-range tornado/severe weather thread, for general purposes. At the current time, there are no days with a slight risk or 15% risk on the extended SPC outlooks. This could change soon, but I'm not sure.