Chinook

We have had a couple of sub-severe storms out east of me today. The last 12 days have been above 60 here, with a high of 78, yesterday, a high of 81 on 4/27 and roughly 80 degrees today. Edit: the cold front has come in. In combination with some rain showers, the cold front has increased the dew point to 48 degrees. Summertime! Edit: my place has had some rain showers and distant thunder today.

I downloaded Nexrad level-2 data to make this 3-d image of the Moore tornado, 5/20/2013

I am pleased to announce that we will have a new thread for the summer. Today, it was 80 degrees here. The snow from several days ago is long gone. We probably will have above normal temperatures for several days. I hope we will have a summer with normal to above-normal rainfall.

Eastern Iowa could get several severe storms, with a chance for tornadoes. The SBCAPE may only reach 1000-1800 J/kg, which is generally kind of low, considering the SHARPpy-based soundings seem to have high CAPE numbers a lot of times.

I guess this is the TDS for the confirmed tornado near Rome, TN. it's possible the tornado went over I-40

Yesterday was the 9-year anniversary of some terrible tornadoes in NC, including this one that went through the city of Raleigh. I downloaded some data from NOAA to make this map. I hope this never happens again. The year of 2011 just had a way of making tornadoes go through cities.

Not sure if anybody replied Here's what I use

Models are generally showing a deeper warm sector developing near a low pressure/warm front on Easter Sunday, 12z. I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of outlook for central/east Texas on Saturday. As for Sunday, I would expect possibly an enhanced outlook for Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

I believe we should start a new general severe weather thread, since it's a new decade.

Will storm chasers even be able to stay in hotels? I guess campgrounds could be open.

A confirmed tornado was at Troy Alabama earlier, at 15:36z (Troy Airport)

With this severe weather threat moving east, Valdosta/Moody AFB radar is not working at this time.

It looks like a tornado tracked from Baker Hill, AL (south of Eufaula,) to Springvale GA.

With a 986mb low over Iowa, and 60-65F dew points from Louisiana up to Springfield IL/Davenport IA, I believe the SPC will have to give a slight risk outlook for the entire cold front and adjacent areas. Especially with 75 kt winds at 500mb over this region.

Anybody know if there has been any confirmed damage at Triana to Owens Cross Roads AL?

As for now, this is a radar-confirmed tornado warning at Sewanee.

It looks like this storm north of Huntsville is trying to develop a stronger rotation

The southern supercell near Vina, AL is ramping up with stronger rotation and a tornado warning.

Thunderstorms near Tupelo MS seem to be increasing in intensity quickly.

It seems quite likely that scattered severe storms will move across Tennessee and Kentucky, as well as adjacent areas of Mississippi and Alabama. According to most CAMs, the storms may be quite late in the day, with some stronger storms at 00z (8:00PM eastern/7:00PM central). With strong wind fields aloft, these storms will have fast movement, and I would expect a wind/tornado threat

Why not use math? The 10% tornado area is 113,928 sq mi, the 5% tornado area is 140,381 sq mi, and the 2% tornado area is 168,806 sq mi. The SPC system forecasts a probability that any one point in a certain zone will see a report within 25 miles. That means that each point in space is something of a 25 mi radius storm-report-detector. A 25-mi radius circle takes up (pi)*(25)^2 square miles of area. Aside from using more advanced methods of statistics, let's just apply simple math. The number of 25 mile circles covered by the 10% outlook is 58.02, and likewise, 71.50 circles, and 85.97 circles. Then (58.02)*(0.10)+(71.50)*(0.05)+(85.97)*(0.02) = 11.1 tornadoes. 11 seems like a possible number of tornadoes. Qualitatively, I think it's reasonable to say the 10% risk for a large section of the Ohio Valley/Mississippi may seem too much. Otherwise, using real statistical methods may calculate a different number of expected tornadoes.

The SPC has increased the wind risk to 30% and tornado risk to 10% into southern Indiana and Illinois. Some of the convection-allowing models show updraft helicity tracks in IN/IL late at night, well after 00z.

There could be a TDS near Ash Flat, AR. It's kind of tough to say, with all radars being far away from that area.

Here's an interesting slightly new plot type from SPC HREF- Max and Min (highly negative) updraft helicity tracks. As has been discussed, there is a range of possibilities with supercells/ elevated supercells tomorrow. The SPC may move the risk area farther north into parts of Indiana.

The 00z models are in the process of finishing up the forecasts for tomorrow. At this time, I don't think there's a need to extend the slight risk much north of Cincinnati OH. The 00z HRRR may be unrealistic about deep convection near Indianapolis. I'm not sure. Maybe elevated CAPE could produce some hail near Indianapolis.