Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion
Chinook replied to andyhb's topic in Central/Western States
I believe we should start a new general severe weather thread, since it's a new decade. -
I think I got 1.0" to 1.5".
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Will storm chasers even be able to stay in hotels? I guess campgrounds could be open.
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There have been 24-hr temperature change values of -41 to -51 degrees F between Denver, western Nebraska, and Cheyenne.
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I think my place got 1.63" of precipitation in March, and 5.3" of snow. This is a slightly above average value of precipitation, even though Fort Collins-CSU got a little below average. Temperatures were just a bit above normal. This time of year generally the day of the maximum snowpack depth in Colorado, so I thought I might post some maps.
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The GFS and the UKMET are still holding on to the forecast of several inches of snow at Larimer/Boulder Counties. The NWS expects > 3" above ~8000ft in Larimer County and areas closer to Casper, WY. It'll be a shocker, for sure. At my area, we had 70 degrees today.
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Lenticular cloud. I have not gotten a picture of a lenticular cloud in the evening for a long time
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A confirmed tornado was at Troy Alabama earlier, at 15:36z (Troy Airport)
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With this severe weather threat moving east, Valdosta/Moody AFB radar is not working at this time.
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It looks like a tornado tracked from Baker Hill, AL (south of Eufaula,) to Springvale GA.
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The latest GFS says it will be 28 degrees and snowy for me at 6:00PM Thursday. That's just too cold for 6:00PM, seriously.
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Models show some snow for us on Thursday- Friday, particularly Fort Collins to Cheyenne. Once again, the GFS is showing higher values for SE Wyoming (although that didn't work out very well last time.)
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This is my best interpretation of the storm survey of the Jonesboro tornado (12.55 mile track)
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Here is the 4-hr rotation track map for the Jonesboro tornado (MRMS) at 20:30z-00:30z. I wonder how long the tornado was on the ground.
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There could be a CC drop representative of a TDS near Kirkwood, Illinois.
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So, what happened then? I'm seeing reports of 1.5" to 2.5" on the southern side of Denver.
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As an interesting note, we'll have some storms develop near or at areas of 90 kt of effective shear. I don't think I've seen that. Most of the time, you can only get up to about 70 kt of shear in areas of surface instability.
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Now tonight's 3km NAM run has 73/68/ 3200 J/kg near Fort Madison IA at 18z Saturday
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Temperatures on the Colorado plains range from lower 40s to 80 degrees. Stratus clouds filled in northeast Colorado earlier today.
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With a 986mb low over Iowa, and 60-65F dew points from Louisiana up to Springfield IL/Davenport IA, I believe the SPC will have to give a slight risk outlook for the entire cold front and adjacent areas. Especially with 75 kt winds at 500mb over this region.
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Anybody know if there has been any confirmed damage at Triana to Owens Cross Roads AL?
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As for now, this is a radar-confirmed tornado warning at Sewanee.
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There is likely going to be some mixed rain/snow for our area on Friday/Saturday morning, with the potential for heavy snow at Estes Park.
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It looks like this storm north of Huntsville is trying to develop a stronger rotation
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The southern supercell near Vina, AL is ramping up with stronger rotation and a tornado warning.
