Chinook

TDS showing up now near Billingsley

According to the SNOTEL maps I look at, the South Platte Basin (CO only) jumped from 87% to 100% and the Arkansas Basin jumped from 89% to 102%

loops http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_14_2021_500mb_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_14_2021_GFS_sfc_loop.html http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Mar_14_2021_radar_loop.html radar loop in fact did not include KFTG radar information for some or all of the loop due to some weird problem that I've never seen before (as was shown on the fact that KFTG radar data was not getting to Radarscope)

Here are some of my ideas based off the 00z models. Initially, you would think the mid-day threat with the cold front/ almost-dryline situation in AR/LA would be the most impressive. But then I was thinking that the continuation of the convection into the night, may bring many more tornado threats. Late night severe threats are always worse from a human standpoint, as people are sleeping.

more pics

With the CoCoRAHS observations of at least 26" in my area, this is the largest storm I have ever lived through. Even with the 3" of liquid equivalent, this is larger than any 2-day rain or snow event in Fort Collins/Loveland I can think of, and also larger than most rain events that I could ever think of when I lived in Ohio or Michigan.

As per CoCoRAHS, my area got 3.21" - 3.59" of liquid equivalent and 26" - 29.6" of snowfall. edit: CoCoRAHS mid-Fort Collins got 21" and maybe 2.50" to 3.00" of liquid equivalent (there are a couple dozen CoCoRAHS reports, so hard to average everything)

I definitely got in the range of 20-24" and the snow may be ending

My area possibly approaching 20-24" with 36" drifts on the south side of houses.

The snow is still coming down here. I have most likely gotten 2" since I last posted. Around noon, the winds were really going and you couldn't see down the street. It is still decently windy.

my world is pretty white. I got a depth of 17" with some wind gusts of 25mph or more shaking the trees, which are caked in snow

The 3-km NAM still has 2.05" of QPF for me, and that's from 00z, not that long ago, so that would be roughly 20" from 5:00PM onward-- and I've only gotten about 2+ inches since 5:00PM.

I have gotten about 3" - 3.5" of snow. There are some moderate values on radar, kind of medium dendrites. I guess it is something. Earlier this week, I would have assumed I would have 10 or 15" by this time in the day. this better actually happen!!!

possible tornado near Quanah, TX

The snowfall is not too impressive yet for most of the area. For me, the snow is just above the grass

tornado-warned storm near Paducah, TX

Because of daylight savings time, there will no snow between 2:00 AM and 3:00 AM.

Nazareth TX (southwest of Amarillo) - warning is indicated a confirmed tornado

I got my first flakes at about 11:50 AM start of storm

Mostly, you don't want Jim Cantore to come to your town, because if he does, a hurricane will blow down your house.

That's so weird. I can't get Radarscope to switch to FTG radar data either. The data is definitely out there, as it is loading on GRLevel3.

Now the NAM is somewhat respectable compared to the global models, in terms of higher snowfall totals. Sometimes I don't know what it takes for our premiere US regional model to actually forecast snow for the Front Range. I don't think we've had so many posts in the Mountain West discussion in 24hrs+ in .... forever. It looks like now I can say that the snow/rain will develop east of I-25 tomorrow and rotate west over the next 6 hours to fill in the entire area, as the 700mb 0C line will stay in eastern Colorado. A bunch of this rain will push north into Nebraska. The colder 700mb temperatures of -3C to -7C will be just enough to keep the precipitation as snow near I-25. I have kind of not looked at a bunch of the details with the radar/precip rate as each model had some different variations of this dynamic storm.

high precipitation supercell (non-tornado warned now)

new possible tornado east of Lubbock, TX

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far east-central New Mexico Northwest Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 900 PM CST.