Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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I think my place got 1.63" of precipitation in March, and 5.3" of snow. This is a slightly above average value of precipitation, even though Fort Collins-CSU got a little below average. Temperatures were just a bit above normal. This time of year generally the day of the maximum snowpack depth in Colorado, so I thought I might post some maps.
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The GFS and the UKMET are still holding on to the forecast of several inches of snow at Larimer/Boulder Counties. The NWS expects > 3" above ~8000ft in Larimer County and areas closer to Casper, WY. It'll be a shocker, for sure. At my area, we had 70 degrees today.
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Lenticular cloud. I have not gotten a picture of a lenticular cloud in the evening for a long time
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A confirmed tornado was at Troy Alabama earlier, at 15:36z (Troy Airport)
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With this severe weather threat moving east, Valdosta/Moody AFB radar is not working at this time.
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It looks like a tornado tracked from Baker Hill, AL (south of Eufaula,) to Springvale GA.
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The latest GFS says it will be 28 degrees and snowy for me at 6:00PM Thursday. That's just too cold for 6:00PM, seriously.
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Models show some snow for us on Thursday- Friday, particularly Fort Collins to Cheyenne. Once again, the GFS is showing higher values for SE Wyoming (although that didn't work out very well last time.)
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This is my best interpretation of the storm survey of the Jonesboro tornado (12.55 mile track)
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Here is the 4-hr rotation track map for the Jonesboro tornado (MRMS) at 20:30z-00:30z. I wonder how long the tornado was on the ground.
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There could be a CC drop representative of a TDS near Kirkwood, Illinois.
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So, what happened then? I'm seeing reports of 1.5" to 2.5" on the southern side of Denver.
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As an interesting note, we'll have some storms develop near or at areas of 90 kt of effective shear. I don't think I've seen that. Most of the time, you can only get up to about 70 kt of shear in areas of surface instability.
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Now tonight's 3km NAM run has 73/68/ 3200 J/kg near Fort Madison IA at 18z Saturday
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Temperatures on the Colorado plains range from lower 40s to 80 degrees. Stratus clouds filled in northeast Colorado earlier today.
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With a 986mb low over Iowa, and 60-65F dew points from Louisiana up to Springfield IL/Davenport IA, I believe the SPC will have to give a slight risk outlook for the entire cold front and adjacent areas. Especially with 75 kt winds at 500mb over this region.
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Anybody know if there has been any confirmed damage at Triana to Owens Cross Roads AL?
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As for now, this is a radar-confirmed tornado warning at Sewanee.
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There is likely going to be some mixed rain/snow for our area on Friday/Saturday morning, with the potential for heavy snow at Estes Park.
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It looks like this storm north of Huntsville is trying to develop a stronger rotation
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The southern supercell near Vina, AL is ramping up with stronger rotation and a tornado warning.
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Thunderstorms near Tupelo MS seem to be increasing in intensity quickly.
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It seems quite likely that scattered severe storms will move across Tennessee and Kentucky, as well as adjacent areas of Mississippi and Alabama. According to most CAMs, the storms may be quite late in the day, with some stronger storms at 00z (8:00PM eastern/7:00PM central). With strong wind fields aloft, these storms will have fast movement, and I would expect a wind/tornado threat
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It looks like my area got 3.9" of snow and 1.35" of total precipitation (nearest CoCoRAHS observers.)
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Today has been kind of low on the storm report total, given the two different enhanced-risk areas. This is a radar-confirmed tornado north of Little Rock.
