Chinook

Some heat records may be broken in the southern plains, Denver, Albuquerque, or Phoenix.

The NWS forecast for Toledo has several 96's in the future. If the forecast is completely correct, then Toledo will be 7.1 degrees above normal from June 27th until next Saturday, July 11th.

Eastern Colorado should have some showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, and I would suppose this will help keep temps below 95 for quite a few areas. I guess it is questionable if very much rainfall really hits the I-25 cities. Fort Collins had +2.8F for June and my place in Loveland got 2.15" of rainfall. The 1981-2010 average for Fort Collins is 2.17", so precipitation was normal compared to that climatological average. That's so close to normal, that it's very strange. It has been a very long time since I really had a normal-precipitation summer month with precipitation spread out nicely into different weeks. 2019-2020 snow statistics: Fort Collins-CSU: 73.9" my place: 79.9" This was fairly similar to the snowy winter of 2012-2013, when snow slammed my area in March through May 2013. For 2019-2020, the timing of snow was quite different.

Did 1995 almost make the list?

My area had a couple of periods of rain, mostly associated the upper-level lift, and not much associated with higher CAPE. We had stratiform rain yesterday morning. Then, we had a very nice blue skies with a high temp of about 80 degrees and breeze to 15mph, with some cumulus clouds later. Then, at 11:30PM, we had this

For eastern Colorado, the trend over the next week should be upwards-- possibly peaking at about 100 degrees on July 8th, but that is 9 days away.

Southwest Iowa is has dew points of 75-79 right now.

The drought has been getting steadily worse for a number of areas. The GEFS ensembles don't show any notable above-normal precip areas in the southwestern 1/4 of the US very soon.

There will probably be quite a few more storm reports out of these sections of the line that are bowing outward.

Sorry to hear that. I guess the storms missed your area. There was almost no precip on radar-estimated storm total for your area. My place got some moderate rain today, with a few loud rumbles of thunder. maybe 0.25"-0.40". As I said yesterday, my area kind of keeps getting lucky. Yesterday the storm total was about 0.12" but it felt like more.

There have been plenty of hail reports near Colorado Springs, now the storm has 75 dBz. There could have been a tornado, but there are no reports.

This is west of Rockford and northeast of Davenport. I am not sure if these rotation area(s) are a tornado or not.

There's a new storm with up to 1" hail heading for downtown Denver.

possible tornado near Colorado Springs/ Palmer Divide

Interesting note for Raindancewx: Go look up this 1 hour long video of the sun. This video should have enough info to show nearly one complete cycle of sunspots. NASA released a truly epic video on Wednesday that compiles 10 years of the Solar Dynamics Observatory's views of our star.

I think there's a possibility for a damaging squall line in SW Michigan. This model run is not really an outlier or anything like that.

So, how do the 00z model runs change the outlook significantly?

My area had a brief rain shower last night, and today, we had a couple of thunderstorms (no hail.) Tomorrow, the Front Range may see some more areas of thunderstorms, with large hail as a possibility. It is nice that it's not totally dry recently. At least my area is getting close to average for rainfall, with, probably at least 1.52" for the month.

This squall line has already produced several severe wind reports in the last hour, and intensify to produce many more severe wind reports.

possible 2-3" hail with increasing rotation northeast of Great Bend, KS

Up to 7000 J/kg today, and it's only 1:00PM Central

I am a little surprised that they upgraded to moderate risk today (wind, hail only)

Many areas around DFW got around 2" of rain, but some storm cells must have sat over Dallas for a long time.

One Arizona wildfire has grown to 151,000 acres at the same time a COVID-19 troubles.

I was looking at the radar for a thunderstorm in Amarillo, and then I came upon something I hadn't thought about for a long time. Coming from the north, US-87/287 splits into two streets southbound, two streets northbound. It then combines into a single street that is US-87. Then US-87/I-27 goes to the south of town, but US-287 goes east, after combining with I-40 at the large interchange. US-287 then splits away from I-40.