Chinook

Storm reports show up to 5" - 6" in some parts of the Denver metro, with over 6" at the foothills/Palmer Divide. Also, up to 8" at Pine Bluff, Wyoming. It must have taken a long time. Here in Loveland, snow had mainly ended when I last posted (12 hours ago), we had some downslope wind off the Cheyenne ridge, with weak radar returns, so almost nothing happened beyond 10:00AM. This might be something like a 48-hour (near-blizzard?) storm for eastern South Dakota.

My area got 1-2" of snow today, with maybe some wind gusts to 20-25mph right now.

The GFS has 12" of snow for Akron CO (Washington County, CO) and the NAM has 1" and the NAM-3km has something like 2"-5" in the county. This is madness! This is mixed precipitation madness that has been happening today in KS and Nebraska:

A winter storm reaching from Mexico to Canada.

NWS-Cleveland posted these stats on twitter: #Toledo #Ohio broke a record high temperature today of at least 63°F (old record was 62°F back in 1888). #Youngstown has tied the record high temperature at 64°F (old record was 64°F set back in 2016/1982). I was just in Toledo a few days ago. Also, on Monday (Dec 23rd) I was at Cleveland Hopkins Airport and there was a high of 58, low of 36.

We should be close to the 500mb/700mb lows, but without a strong upslope component. So upward motion will not be concentrated on the foothills for very long. Then stronger lift will begin farther east as the surface-to-700mb low intensifies to the east, out near Goodland and into central Kansas. By the way, it looks like the Euro had another (minor) victory on this one, as the GFS had the snow to the east of us for several runs. NWS already has 8-10" for northern Nebraska through western Minnesota with this storm.

For Saturday-Sunday, the NWS is expecting 1.5"-3.9" of snow for the Front Range cities. There is a winter storm watch east of DIA. Heavier snow towards northeast Colorado and Nebraska, as well as southern Colorado and northern New Mexico.

Some ensemble members of the GFS and Euro show some hope for snow in Denver. These must have a bit of a different look at 500mb than the regular GFS at this time. Interesting fact: NWS-Fairbanks is forecasting -46F for the Tanana valley this week.

Today's Euro shows that the storm will provide about 2-3" of snowfall all over the plains of Colorado on 12/28 (96 hours) but this is somewhat of an outlier. I think it handles the 500mb low differently than the GFS and Candian.

I got back from my trip to Ohio. I was in the Akron/Canton area, and I drove to Toledo and back. We had 5 consecutive sunny days, with no low stratus clouds. (Thursday-Monday) There is a very low chance to have 5 sunny days in a row at this time of year, with no overcast stratus clouds at any time. Here's my thinking. The chance of having roughly 24 hours of clear(ish) skies is 20% or less. Weather tends to change in some predictable ways over the course of 5 days. But if you just think of this as a series of random events, then the chance of 5 sunny days is (0.2)^5 = 0.00032 = 0.032%

Euro/GFS/Canadian all have a closed 500mb low in AZ/NM on December 28th, so it's definitely something to watch for the southern Rockies and areas of the plains into Kansas.

Since November 25th, Fort Collins has been -2.2 F in temperature, with 294% of normal snow and 439% of normal precipitation, (393% of normal at my place) . Snow is still on the ground here in some of the areas that face the sun. So, December has felt snowy, even though little snow fell out of the sky. Not much will happen here soon, and temps will be 40's and possibly some 50's. But that's good for my trip. I will be flying out tomorrow, and there should be few weather problems anywhere before I get back.

Debris/ tornado report evident at Baldwyn and Guntown, Ms

tornado warning and tornado reports near/at Bogue Chitto, Mississippi.

Two tornado warned storms in the southwestern corner of Mississippi. I don't know if these are producing tornadoes, but it's worth mentioning.

Not sure if this was mentioned yet: 50 minutes ago, tornado(es) reported very near Edwards, MS

The Chiefs game should be in a lot of snow. There are heavy snow bands, with one location getting sleet, and, as you can see, 0.5-3.0" of snow measured recently. A couple places with rain and freezing rain just west of Joplin - rain at Pittsburg, KS.

We are getting a little snow in Larimer and Weld Counties.

00z Euro keeps the snow closer to southwest Missouri, with 7" north of Joplin (3.7" at Joplin) (10:1 snow ratio.)

I think this is a really snowy run of the GFS, compared to recent runs. Nevertheless, there could be greater snow amounts for the mountains, and possibly Denver and Colorado Springs,. Sometime soon, we'll see if the models are getting a better handle on the Midwest/Plains part of this snowy system. Northern mountains of Colorado above 9000 ft:

Composite radar from 1804z (1:04 PM) of the squall hitting the Buffalo shoreline

The Euro and Canadian show some light snow for northern Colorado Saturday to Sunday. Most models have some (heavy) snow for Colorado Springs out of the combination of events (into Monday.)

Our storm (Sunday to Monday) may be making a bit of a comeback, possibly for southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. The GFS and Euro have varied with this feature. I thought it might disappear. The Canadian was pretty insane with the snow, but it's not as accurate.

Impressive wintertime jet stream strength (GFS, 300mb)

Grand Forks ND weather: 1 degree, with light snow, 3/4 mile visibility, and a pretty good band of snow on radar. A winter storm warning is at Fargo, to the south of Grand Forks.