Chinook

strange 850mb chart for the transition/landfall last night

Simple (Hurricane) Simon says: As I was going to St. Ives, I met a man with seven wives. Every wife had seven sacks, every sack had seven cats, every cat had seven kittens. Kittens, cats, sacks, and wives. How many were going to St. Ives? My phone number is 555 and the answer. Call me in 30 seconds or die. Hurricane Simon at 150mph winds at public advisory 12a on October 10th.

gust to 83mph at buoy PCBF1 near Panama City Beach FL

I'm seeing wind gusts to 61mph at Destin FL. The base velocity from radar has the winds at 104 kt (Northeast to southwest)

Pensacola Naval Air Station gust to 51mph

This buoy will get close to the eye

I think the GFS had a low pressure in a Gulf about a week ago, but there was nothing on the NHC outlook, and then.. nothing, and then.. this.

yes, current radars show 110 kt (126.5mph) wind in the clouds at the eyewall, above ground. That's some crazy stuff.

tornado warning Apalachicola FL, with larger tornadic supercell out over the open water, as I mentioned

tornado over the water, south of Crawfordsville FL

Now the NCEP systems have rolled out the RRFS ensemble members (I guess,) and the NAM, for now, has not disappeared.

surprise hailstorms in Iowa

Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level.

recent mountain web cams

strange Hurricane Nolo