Chinook

I recently looked at the SREF on the SPC web site, like last week or something. There is a big thing that said the SREF will be discontinued later in 2026. After posting this on a different weather discussion forum, I've been informed that the NAM is going to be discontinued at some time. Here is a statement released in 2025. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-41_RRFS_legacy_model_cessation.pdf other information from 2025 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/pns25-73_Proposed_Termination_NAM_MOS.pdf I thought the NAM would keep going forever, as it has been known as the premiere mesoscale model for the USA. I was thinking that it feeds the 3-km NAM with boundary data and/or some other important data. Apparently not. I'm a little confused as to what convection-allowing model(s), other than the NAM, might disappear and appear in the PivotalWeather and other web sites. A little piece of me says, yeah when the GFS says of 500 J/kg of CAPE at the location of the next big severe weather outbreak, then you turn to a model that will actually calculate the CAPE. (Am I crazy?)

Chance of rain? What insanity is this?

my loops for January 25, 2026 storm and the most recent blizzard https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_23_2026_GFS_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_21_2026_GFS_500mb_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_21_2026_GFS_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_22_2026_surface_loop.html

almost 100% sunny and in the 50's here

This one is really cool, too

Glacier NP Yellowstone Mammoth Hot Springs (Travertine Terraces)

This is directly from the SPC. They are going to use this new, potentially confusing, system for the SPC outlooks in about a week. Hopefully it's not terribly confusing. The chance for EF2+ tornadoes goes way with the hatching groups. The values are 7% of tornadoes are EF2+ at "no hatching," increasing to a value of 40% at CIG-3. There are two levels for hail. That's slightly confusing. Probability values of 75% and 90% for wind probability outlooks have been added. I am going to call these, little dashies, northwest-leaning lines, and hatching. (I made that up.)

Maybe the NY Jets front office is in charge of snow measurement.

why does Toledo average 1-2 degrees warmer than Fort Wayne when it is more north? The difference is shown to be 1 degree in October and 1.5 degree in July. I think it's bad data.

EF2 tornado close to Bloomington IN (damage path is at the airport)

There are going to be some Low CAPE/high shear showers and thunderstorms for N. Illinois to N. Ohio. The SPC has a slight risk of tornadoes for the lower Ohio Valley, which is south of the areas just mentioned. Convection-allowing models vary on coverage and placement of rain showers.

Earlier today, this wide-ranging storm system was strung out WNW-ESE across the continent. It's pulling itself apart. Strange U-shaped snow forecast coming up for tomorrow. Also note: the Sierra Nevada is going to get a precipitation total of about 6" (60"+ of snowfall) out of this multi-day weather event.

The storm report says 66mph off the lake, there's got to be a blizzard with that, considering the snow. Superior Wisconsin airport has wind gusts to 53, which also is a high wind. Duluth, max wind gust of 61mph with 1/4 mile visibilty.

There's snow in Fort Collins now. Look how many NWS watches/warnings/advisories there are in the West! There's a fire warning in Kansas. I got a new placefile to put on GRlevel3.

The NWS says generally 12"-18" of snow for the San Juans, and some central areas west of the Sawatch Range. Here is a current picture of Frisco. It looks like summer!