roardog

We’ve had a lot of frost and a few freezes here too. Even though October was above normal, I think all of the dryness helped with colder nights.

That look is the result of all of the low pressure/below normal heights happening now and for the next couple of weeks in Alaska and western Canada. Pacific air is very mild this time of year for Canada and the northern US. Watch the end of the ensembles today, especially the Euro. There are big changes around Alaska. It doesn't mean it's correct but that's what you want to look for. It may still have some level of trough in the west but if arctic air gets involved, a nice gradient pattern could develop later in November.

I'd be stunned if the northern plains were the center of warmth this winter. If the northern plains is the center of warmth this winter during a Nina, then we're probably all screwed.

Verbatim it has a varying depth of trough west/ridge east pattern but it also has ridging into Alaska for most of the run. So regardless of what the useless 2M temp anomalies show, there would be arctic air in Canada in that situation which could at least make things interesting for northerners like me. It actually has some very cold 850 anomalies in the western half of the US.

It’s been so boring that I’m hoping with a more active pattern that we can get some dense fog. lol

This is a great thread but it’s funny at times. The stronger MJO rotation through 4,5 and 6 in October was talked about as a positive a couple of months ago for the East Coast in December. Now that it’s happened, the talk is how the seasonal models show nothing like the good December pattern those rotations have brought in the past. However, whenever the seasonal models show a good or decent East Coast pattern, it’s always repeated about how unreliable seasonal models are. I guess you guys just can’t win.lol

Ensembles have kind of moved toward a +PNA look in the 10-15 day. With the vortex over Alaska, there wouldn’t be any Arctic air but it probably wouldn’t be “golf weather” either.

I had nearly a foot of snow in late April 2005. This was after highs in the 80s the week before. This is the equivalent of a mid August sun angle. I don’t think a late Feb sun angle is going to inhibit accumulation in Philadelphia if the snow is coming down at a decent clip.

I wasn’t talking about what someone said years ago. Nzucker hasn’t been alive for a few years now and I don’t think Raindance has posted in this thread in several years either.

I think you might have said this before too but that winter with a less amplified trough west/ridge east would actually be a very interesting winter here and possibly for you too.

Yes. Why would you want to take the chance of playing the biggest games of the season in a northern climate in November? That’s not good for the players or fans.

Remember when the Super Bowl used to be in January? Pretty soon there won’t be anymore Super Bowl snowstorms because it’ll be in April. lol Then people will talk about how cold and snowy it used to be during the Super Bowl back in the day. lol

The actual weather around here reminds me of 2017. I know August of 2017 was much cooler overall than this past August but it was similar in the sense that there was some bonified cool air around later in the month this year and in 2017, plus the beginning of September stayed cool in both years. After that, there was an extended period of unseasonable warmth just like this year. It was also a late developing Nina.

It looks like it didn't make it below 4 million this year.

Good job Cathy Smith for answering Americanwx questions this morning. lol

lol. I’m not sure there’s a single person on here that said that.

A “good” Nino around here can actually make for a long winter. When you get the early cold snaps in the Fall then keep that going right into Winter, it can make it feel like a long Winter. 2014-2015 almost had that except for the mild December but even that wasn’t an extreme torch. To the average person, I’m sure that felt like a long, cold Winter.

It’s not just in the enso regions either, there’s a big difference globally now it seems.

Wasn’t it Raindance that showed previously how a Modoki Nina is actually correlated to a cold December in the US?

I’ve always felt that the water temps out there are more a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of the pattern.

Reminds me of the old days when the NWS zone forecast would say unseasonably cold on a cold January day or unseasonably warm on a hot July day. I would always think, if this isn't the season to be warm/cold what season is? lol

What do you guys think about this post from Joe Daleo regarding QBO and solar max? The QBO influences what that means in the winter for solar max and solar min years. At solar max the west QBO favors lower than normal heights in low latitudes and higher heights in higher latitudes - with STRATWARM events (bottom right). If the La Nina persists we should expect the the opposite pattern (bottom right below). Does that imply wild swings? If La Nina fades, the opposite bottom right in the 4 pattern image would be more favored/more dominant.

I agree with you but I guess to be fair to Joshua Hawkins, how often are climate related articles written by someone that has any background on the subject? On the other hand, those articles usually at least have quotes or reference research done by someone in climate science. This article seems to have none of that.

https://bgr.com/science/no-one-can-figure-out-why-the-atlantic-ocean-is-cooling-at-record-speed/ Recently he’s been referencing this article.

For some reason I remember it being opposite and there being disagreement with it. But again, I’m talking early 00’s during the Wright Weather days. His stance could easily be different now 20+ years later.