roardog

The models are really fighting any kind of persistent western trough. They keep trying to go back to a more Nino type look with some semblance of an Aleutian low and ridging across western North America.

You don’t like it if it’s cold and you don’t like it if it’s warm. You only want a record breaking storm which is unrealistic. lol

The reality is that most of the people posting in this thread probably know what type of pattern the models are showing in the medium or long range before the natural gas market does. I don’t really think it’s telling us anything we don’t already know.

Yeah if you live in Dallas or Seattle. The more south and west you are in the sub, the more risk you're going to have of having some very mild days mixed in with cold ones. Maybe Chicago will be too far SW to get any of the clipper snows but on the other hand you need to be close to the mild air to get the good clipper snows so it's hard to say right now. If you're only goal is to get a major Gulf of Mexico moisture laden monster storm, the yes, this is an awful pattern. If you just want to experience some winter cold and clippers in December for a change and get the ground/lakes frozen then it doesn't look bad at all.

We are finally getting a sustained rise in the SOI. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see a little SE ridge start to show up in a week or so. I noticed the 6Z GEFS starting to hint at a SE ridge after day 10 with the coldest air moving to the upper Midwest/northern plains.

I guess if we are talking about the NE part of the country then I agree there won’t be any “extreme” cold for now since the coldest of the air is routed to the south and west of there. International Falls, Lacrosse, etc are some cities that could have “ extreme” cold for late November/early December. It will take a little bit of time to fill eastern Canada with Arctic air after this mild pacific flow we’ve had this fall across North America.

I’ve noticed that 2M temps anomalies are usually too warm on the models already by day 10 or so. Just look at the euro weeklies. By the time you get to week three they usually show no below normal 2M temps anywhere in the world. lol. I think we should see what verifies first. Detroit will have no shot to reach 2002 level cold due to the Great Lakes but I think Chicago or Indianapolis has a shot to get some real mid winter type cold.

I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate.

That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown.

Maybe the American models have just improved over the years.

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling.

You're absolutely correct and it wouldn't shock me if the models were wrong about the cold in the medium/long range just because as you said they are often wrong. However, if the models were showing a furnace over the US to end November/start December there would be 50 tweets and 10,000 word essays about why the models are correct.

Isn’t the pacific jet always strong to an extent this time of year? Just about all of the posters in here are very knowledgeable with great information. This is one of if not the best thread on this board every year. However, It’s hard not to see who has the “warm bias” as soon as models start to show cold. If there’s a strong Nina there won’t be any cold, the Nina is too weak so there won’t be any cold, the atmosphere is acting like a Nino so there won’t be any cold. lol

If we can keep a nice stout Aleutian ridge to keep the Arctic air coming into North America and the MJO actually does make it into the cold phases, you guys might have a nice window later in December with cold air already close by.

Then it’s useless since there’s a good portion of this country that gets a lot of their snow on either side of meteorological winter.

Yeah. The global SST anomalies are actually the lowest we’ve seen in quite sometime at least as of a couple of days ago when I last looked.

We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO. Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around.

Am I crazy or was this pic from 2018 not 2019?

I think it was Raindance that showed a cold Nino 4 usually has a cold December followed by a flip going into January while a cold 1&2 usually has December as the mildest month.

The ensembles went from a huge vortex over and around Alaska with a trough down the west coast to above normal heights in Alaska and the west coast. A huge change over a day or so.

I know I’ve said this a million times but there continues to be a huge over reaction to this -PDO trough west/ ridge east pattern we’ve been in since the late 2010s. People act like the planet is so warm now that the right pattern can’t even get us a “cold” winter anymore. The western half of this country had a very cold winter just two years ago.

Pretty tight rain gradient with this system. There’s been over an inch here. There’s even standing water in the fields today.

Yeah. The pattern coming up looks like a good recipe for one of those Colorado low bombs, especially once the Aleutian ridging goes up and allows Arctic air to clash with the already established warm air over the eastern half of the country. Plains blizzard and Midwest severe weather outbreak.

The maritime continent phases are the warm phases this time of year. It's pretty much the opposite of that right now.

If those are the metrics you're going for then good luck with December golfing. The grass growing part might be the toughest. lol