
roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Most people would like a sunny and mild Spring but I would rather have lots of storms with gulf moisture even if it means it’s 40F and raining here while it’s 75F in Toledo. There’s plenty of time for sunny, pleasant and boring days in the summer. -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
What exactly are you hoping for in a Chicago winter? Just snow? It’s obviously already been much colder than Atlanta. lol -
Nothing about the upcoming pattern would indicate that areas north of DC wouldn’t be below average. I mean the great ensemble agreement could be wrong but they show a flow direct from the North Pole into the east. The lowest heights in the hemisphere are in eastern Canada and the eastern US.
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If I was betting, I would certainly bet against the Nino look sticking around the entire winter. However, that being said, it’s looking like we are essentially going to have this Nino like pattern for at least half of this met winter. For the people who like cold and snow chances in the east, you can’t ask for more than that with what everyone expected going into this winter.
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I'm also still impressed with the continuation of the nose dive in global SST anomalies to levels not seen in years on all sources.
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There was about 4 inches here. Really snowed hard for awhile.
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Although there’s been warm ups mixed in, at least December has felt like a winter month this year. Winter feels short when December is an extension of November.
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All snow here. I see Flint has been reporting freezing rain for awhile. How much did you get?
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
The southern part of the sub will probably for sure, maybe even 60. I could just see this being reminiscent to an April type set up where the warm front will struggle to move too far north. It will be mild either way but some sun and 60 versus low clouds and upper 30s. -
Yeah but you gotta worry about sun angle and warm ground.
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface? -
Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
A lot of people on this board would hate that type of winter. I would probably get tired of the extreme cold with hardly any precip though too. From what I've read, it actually started to get milder in February then there was an early Spring which turned into a very mild Spring. So there was definitely some balancing that went on after the cold fall and winter. -
It won’t take long in January to get air cold enough to snow if the flow is from northern Canada regardless of how much pacific air Canada gets filled with.
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I think I speak for most here when I say I would love to read your winter forecast if you are willing to post it.
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We all know what JB is but his call this time around wasn't bad. I have Weatherbell so I read all of them guys that post on there. JB has been saying since early Fall that his hurricane analog showed cold in the east between Thanksgiving and Christmas but it isn't useful beyond that time frame. So it's actually going to end up being a decent call that he made before the models were ever showing any sign of cold in the east in December.
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You’re not wrong but since we just saw this happen recently and it could be at least partially responsible for our current pattern maybe it will cause more competing influences and we’ll go back to the pattern we have now. Maybe we should think about that instead of looking at it from the negative point of view and saying west based Nina pattern when we really don’t know.
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Winter 2024-25 Medium/Long Range Discussion
roardog replied to michsnowfreak's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
You guys that complain about the cold and dry pattern should want the -PNA/SE ridge pattern. That’s what will open the Gulf of Mexico to Chicago. It could also bring 50 degrees and rain too but that’s the chance you have to take if you only want big storms. -
It seems like the models have been trying to lower the heights in Alaska and western Canada after day 10 for awhile now but as we get closer in time more ridging keeps showing up. The forecasted cold in the east next week that wasn’t showing up even a couple of days ago is a good example of this.
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I know we talk about RONI and how warm the oceans are and everything but it wasn’t that long ago that 3.4 was actually at a warm neutral level and the SOI was barely positive. We seem to finally be getting some strengthening of the cold waters in that region along with the recent big jump in the SOI. I kind of wonder if the atmosphere is still responding to the warm enso waters we just had. It wouldn’t surprise me if we start to see a more Nina like pattern as we head into January in response to what’s happening right now.
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None of this means anything if the pattern is going to look like a Nino. Mild weather is coming but it’s not really because of a Nina look. It’s more strong Nino looking than anything.
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The earlier discussion was about sea surface anomalies. Coral reef, OISST, CDAS are all at the lowest they have been in a long time.
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There’s actually been a lot of cooling globally for whatever reason. The global anomalies are the lowest they’ve been in a long time.
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I don't know. I mean if the atmosphere is classic Nina, wouldn't the global pattern reflect that? It looks nothing like Nina now and if the ensembles are correct with the Aleutian low in the medium range, that's about as opposite of Nina as you can get.
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It's because he isn't using the real definition of major stratwarm. He's said before in posts on Weatherbell that he's calling it that even if it doesn't technically fit the definition. It's like when he calls any El Nino with warmer anomalies in 4 than in 1.2 a Modoki El Nino even though that is not actually the true definition of it.
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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!
roardog replied to FXWX's topic in New England
The models are really fighting any kind of persistent western trough. They keep trying to go back to a more Nino type look with some semblance of an Aleutian low and ridging across western North America.