roardog

We had 2.2 inches yesterday and 1.25 inches last week so all grass is green and happy again.

We got a good region wide soaker over here this evening after some downpours late this morning/early afternoon too.

Yeah. It’s getting crispy around here now too. We’ve definitely had more rain than you’ve had this summer but with these slow/nearly stationary storms, it almost has to develop over top of you or it rains itself out before it moves 5 miles. lol

People forget that 2012 fell off a cliff in August. Prior to that it wasn’t that low relatively speaking. Also when a graph only has this year and 2012 on it, it’s hard to get a visual on how it compares to other years since then.

I was hoping the SW flow later this week would push the smoke out. Maybe not if it’s way down there. lol

Then on top of that, if the ONI ends up cold neutral but RONI is into Nina, does the ACE rule apply then? Neutral and weak are tough because there’s just so many competing influences on the pattern.

It’s even raining here. I don’t think any of the models had the rain even close to getting this far north. The forecast still only has a 40 percent chance here. lol

Sunny with highs in the low 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. Boring as ever but you can’t really beat it comfortable wise in late July. Already down to the low 60s and most likely headed to the 40s tonight. Who says we can’t get low dewpoints in the summer anymore? lol

Yeah. I said that last winter. Some of the air masses last winter were very cold. We had a couple of mornings here that were below zero with strong winds. It takes a very cold airmass to achieve that around here with the warming influence of the Great Lakes. Below zero temps are much more common here in clear, calm nights. If we would have had any clear and calm nights when those air masses were overhead, there would have easily been some -20s in some spots. The center of those Arctic highs were generally south of here so the atmosphere always stayed well mixed

Mid 40s here this morning. Feels refreshing.

Nice cool day today. Only in the mid 60s with lots of clouds. Feels nice.

They are but what I'm saying is we often see H5 forecasts that don't make sense with 2m temp forecasts. You'll see a forecast in the medium range for a massive ridge over Alaska in January with a flow directly from the north pole into the northern plains and the 2m temp anomalies will show normal or barely below normal. This is where you look at that map and realize it would be frigid in that location if that actual H5 forecast verified.

Quite Frankly, models suck with 2m temp anomalies in the medium range, never mind a seasonal forecast. It's pretty much useless to look at IMO. They are a little better with 850 temp anomalies but not much. It's best to just look at their 500mb anomaly forecasts and that will give you an idea on what temp anomalies would be if that particular map was to come to fruition.

We really need an almost perfect setup to beat that 2012 record. The cool June and continued strong +AO and cool isn't going to cut it regardless of the May melt pond data IMO.

It looks like GAWX posted that it peaked at +1.95. I thought it peaked at +2.0. Maybe what I saw was rounded up? I guess 1.95 isn’t technically super.

This is off topic but I have memories of a hot June in the mid 1990s and I always feel like I’m remembering 1995 because it was a hot summer. However, I don’t think June of 1995 was actually warm. I wonder if I’m remembering 1994.

Two of those years on that composite are super Nino(23-24 and 82-83) so that probably skews it some.

I think the overall point of posting that map was to show that despite being hot in the Midwest and northeast, the country had a lot of well below normal temperatures in the western half on Sunday. There was some impressive chill out there even if the daily departures weren’t -30.

If I’m reading that map correctly, it looks like those are temp departures at 21Z Jun 22nd. What don’t you believe about that map? I looked up Cut Bank, Montana for example and they were in the mid 40s at 21Z Sunday and their normal temps are in the low 70s. So that looks pretty accurate to me.

The lower dewpoints today allowed the temps to get higher. I see Oscoda had a 98.6F reading today. I’m not sure what the official high was there. They’re helped by downsloping though.

Yeah. The dewpoints fell into the mid to upper 60s today. I think the sky was literally cloud free today. It must be very strongly capped.

The impressive part of this heat wave is just the atmosphere staying well mixed during the night causing such high minimums. The fact that we're so close to the most daylight of the year probably helps too. The high temps haven't been anything special at all around here.

Another thing is when the dewpoints get that high, there’s usually a lot of cumulus development even with a capped atmosphere which also helps limit the highs. Some of the hottest actual temps I can remember come with dewpoints at or below 60. I think that also helps to limit the cumulus development leading to higher temps. It’s just really hard to get extreme highs with dewpoints well into the 70s. Just look at Florida all summer.

How many times have we seen a MCS two hundred miles to the north send a lake enhanced outflow down the lake causing a NE wind and big drop in temps? It happens over here with Lake Huron too. You guys should be in the clear from that by Sunday though.

Yeah. If dewpoints really are in the mid 70s, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a lot of low 90s for highs. Nights on the other hand are going to be awful.