roardog

That would the worst. You would get dry slotted so you wouldn’t even get ice storm warning criteria freezing rain. Boring. lol

That’s too warm for me in July.

Nam changes Detroit to Port Huron to plain rain as the low goes over/just slightly east of Detroit. Brings the sleet to just south of here for a bit.

18Z Euro continues to move north. Ice storm for Michsnowfreak. lol

I guess there’s still a cutoff but it’s a cutoff from snow to some other form of precip instead of snow to nothing.

Yeah. The rivers have a lot of ice too. It seems ripe for ice jams this year if it warms up too fast with rain.

At least this one would be the classic moisture laden storm that covers a large area and isn’t reliant on a narrow dynamic band of snow with a razor sharp cut off that can make or break a forecast hours before it starts. I’m tired of those. lol

I think the past two winters being so mild for most of the Great Lakes( I know 22-23 wasn't mild from Minnesota on west though)along with such a warm Fall last year might have allowed the warmer water to get a little deeper in the lakes. It hasn't been a warm winter at all but it seems like it's taking extra long for the lakes to cool down with the exception of Erie but that's a shallow lake. I mean, December was right around normal here with some very cold balanced out by a few very mild days at the end of the month, January had below normal temperatures with definitely some very extreme cold mixed in that you don't see every winter, yet Lake Huron still has some 40 degree water temps in the deep part. I can't remember seeing that happen when it hasn't been a mild winter.

Euro has been moving north the last couple of runs, at least over here. The 12Z run brings an ice storm to Toledo(around .4 inches of ice)and the far SE corner of Michigan, where as that area was mostly snow on the last run and all snow on the run before that.

Over performer here. Ended up with about 6 inches. We have about 11 inches on the ground now.

Brutal cutoff with this thing. I thought I might be on the wrong side of that cutoff with the way the short term models were looking but it's been snowing here since about 1:30, sometimes pretty hard. If you go about 20 miles south of here, there's been pretty much nothing.

I like when you come in with accurate information that goes back further than the “cold” ‘60s and ‘70s.

It looks like about a half inch of snow here. A real whopper of a storm.

Yeah. A stronger and more organized storm would have given both of us freezing rain changing to rain. There was never really much chance of snow for either of us with this one.

The 18z euro is the driest run yet here. It has .02 total precip for this “storm”. lol

What’s worse to you, a winter like this one that has had its share of winter like cold but dry or a mild winter with the same amount of snow but not dry with a lot of cold rain?

It only made it to 33 here. The snow cover remains. There has really only been a couple of small periods when there hasn’t been some snow cover here this winter. The longest being a few days at the end of last year/very beginning of this year.

The second half of the month is starting to look like we could have some pretty strong high latitude blocking. So maybe we go back to cold and dry again?

The entire east coast is warm on the Weatherbell February forecast. The cold is all in the western part of the country.

You can have that garbage. lol. No rain up here and we still have a few inches of snow on the ground. I don’t think it’s made it any higher than the upper 30s here during the warm up.

Yeah. I don’t know about calling snow in southern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio in January rare. lol

Remember too we’re talking tenths of a degree with global temps. The planet isn’t so warm that you’re not going to get extreme cold in places. If the average was that warm, we would all be in big trouble.

Those amounts are anomalies not actual amounts.

The winter up to this point has reminded me of a weak Nino type of pattern where you get the cold air but it’s dry. We’ve also had the southern snow like a Nino and when the warmth comes, it comes from westerly flow from a folding over PNA ridge. Obviously this is all about to change in the coming days

It’s crazy how windy it’s been here today. Usually we need some kind of decent storm to get 50+ gusts. It’s even more unusual to get that with warm air advection.