roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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4/2-4/3 Potential Major Severe WX Outbreak
roardog replied to Geoboy645's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It’s 32F with icicles hanging from everything right now. That’s usually not a good sign for severe storms. lol -
I know snow lovers in the Midwest generally hate an El Niño but a weaker Nino can be good, especially once you get to the eastern part of the sub including you and I.
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I would say there’s a reasonably good chance Enso will be weak either way.
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I’d estimate it was about 60MPH here briefly. I didn’t see any hail. Decent amount of lightning though. For some reason it’s not as exciting as summer storms IMO. There’s something about the constant lightning of a t-storm on an oppressive sunny 92F day that gives more satisfaction.
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I would think the areas north of the front that are in the 40s wouldn’t have much wind even though they issued warnings for those areas.
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Good thing there isn’t leaves on the trees.
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80MPH winds are interesting but I could also do without the mess that would cause. We are on the warm side of the front right now here with mid 60s so I guess severe isn’t out of the question even up here.
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That’s impressive.
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Garbage weather here today as expected. Damp and dreary and in the 30s. It must be pretty bad in the northeastern part of the state. Alpena has been about 30 degrees all day with freezing rain and more to come. Don’t we have a poster from that area?
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You guys can enjoy the warmth while I enjoy some cold NE winds with rain and fog this weekend. Maybe if I’m lucky the front will move north of here on Sunday like some of the models show but I would never count on that this time of year.
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Yeah. This warm March we are having is actually worse in some ways IMO.
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It really is the worst time of year. The period from about mid March to the end of April where most plant life is still dormant and you get a few tastes of warmth. Plus the days are long and the sun is warm so the cold is an annoyance.
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Too early in the year for wildfire smoke so we'll just get dust instead. lol
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Being on the west side of the Great Lakes is the worst. Hard to get good LES but spring cooling will never be denied.
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Come on. Don’t be that way. You know it’s going to be 89 everyday.
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I agree. The atmosphere is such a complex system. Humans adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere that wouldn’t otherwise be there obviously has to have some impact. I mean, that’s obvious, right? Would the 37 degrees outside where I am right now be a different temperature if not for the extra greenhouse gasses? Who knows. That’s why everyone disagrees on this subject.
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He’s been saying if his ideas are right it should warm up after that and lead to a warm May nationally and a hot summer.
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It wasn’t available on our cable until the late 80s. It must have been before 1988 though because I remember they had a special program weekdays at 8pm that summer called drought watch or something dramatic like that because of the hot and dry summer that was happening. It’s funny how that was 37 years ago and I can still remember the opening was some dramatic music with dry cracked ground. lol
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The local forecasts were generated from something the cable company had to buy I believe. So it took a long time around here to even upgrade from the 3000 to the 4000. I think it was well into the 1990s before that happened. Back then, we still had a small local cable company that probably didn’t have the resources to upgrade that stuff as readily.
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There was a Weatherstar 3000 before that. The 3000 was the one they had when we first got The Weather Channel in the ‘80s. I think that’s the one when there was a severe thunderstorm warning that it covered the whole screen with scrolling text so you couldn’t actually see a radar. lol
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These days, we all have access to the latest model forecasts. We can see trends or changes before the official forecast changes. I remember back in the day you knew a decent storm was possible in the coming days from either the met on your local news or from watching The Weather Channel. Then when the Winter Storm Watch was issued it was exciting because that was the next step toward seeing a big storm. Then you had to wait about 12 hours for the next update. How times have changed. lol
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It was a little below normal. It just felt colder because the last two winters were ridiculously warm.
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This is where luck comes in though. I get that the chance of phasing decreases with the strong jet but areas to your south had decent snow this winter. A little bit of a SE ridge or just any nuance in January could have brought that snow to NYC instead of Philadelphia/DC.
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It was basically Nina Feb climo vs an unusually negative AO. I feel like without the strongly -AO, the pattern could have ended up being a blowtorch for the entire eastern half of the country. The -AO really helped to keep the cold in southern Canada and the northern US.
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But isn’t it also unusual to have a -5 AO in a Nina February?
