roardog

Who knows, maybe the MJO will do something this time but it feels like we’ve been down this road every month since Spring. It’s always the CFS or BOM that forecasts a strong MJO and it never materializes but twitter and snowman go crazy over it. Like I said, maybe it’ll be different this time.

I don’t have any evidence to back this up but I feel like the temperature in August plays a role. We had a cool August this year and I was seeing more color than usual already at the end of August. I remember in 2017 after the cool August, we had quite a bit of early color showing up until the 90F temperatures in the second half of September seemed to slow it down.

The water along the west coast of the US is really cooling down too, going back to more of the classic -PDO look. Mixed signals everywhere right now.

lol. You keep repeating this as if this is something I said would happen. I made a comment awhile back that said the CFS was forecasting 1.2 to decrease. 1.2 has decreased. The CFS shows it between 1.0-1.5 for the winter. Although the CFS is generally an inferior model, I could see 1.2 continuing to decrease on average over the next few months.

I’ve been waiting 5 months for the big MJO wave that’s always going to develop in a couple of weeks.

Some of these indexes are derived from such a small area that it doesn’t always tell the whole story.

Honest question because I really have never paid much attention. What does a +IOD usually mean for the North American pattern?

Must be heading below the neckline now.

Maybe we’ve peaked?

Or it could be that the models are confused by the competing influences and therefore the mean is depicted the way it is. I guess we would have to see individual members to determine that.

The winter of 13-14 was a very cold winter over here in the Midwest. I believe northern Minnesota ended up colder than 76-77. Although this was 10 years ago, I think it shows that if you get the pattern to support it, it will still get very cold. Even last winter, parts of North Dakota were several degrees below normal for the winter. That’s a bitter cold winter for an area that’s already cold on average. The issue in recent years around here and east to where you guys are is really all about the tropical forcing. Is that due to climate change, a natural cycle or a combination of both? It makes you feel like the WPAC warm pool is due to climate change but it also wouldn’t completely surprise me if it reverses in some fashion at some point.

I mean region 4 is something like +1.1 or +1.2. How can this not be considered a basin wide Nino right now?

A little off topic but when I visited Key West years ago the traffic was horrendous. I don’t know if it was because it was the middle of winter so there were more people there or if it’s always like that.

Snowman19’s head will explode if we peak at 2.0 and have an outcome like the models are suggesting. He’ll have to quickly move on to forecasting a super Nina next year. lol

You keep talking about the -SOI but in reality it’s only -9 on the 30 day and -6 on the 90 day. That’s not exactly an indication of a super Nino. It’s barely even in “Nino” territory. I would say those numbers represent a weak Nino more than anything. This along with the MEI and RONI is showing how our warmed planet is making it more difficult than it already was to forecast long range imo.

Wasn’t 18-19 a Nino? The two previous winters were Nina I believe.

1+2 under 3.0 for the first time since June I believe

Yeah but you wouldn’t expect that type of pattern in an east based Nino in December. If it was due to the strong -PDO, should we take that into consideration this year?

What caused the unusual December of ‘72 pattern? It didn’t look anything like a Nino let alone a super Nino.

It’s been pretty much the same story most of the year.

But yet you use it for MJO forecasts. Hmm.

That’s it. It’s over. Time for you to start looking forward to longer days and warmer temps. Only 6 months till spring.

Why do you believe the MJO wave is going to strongly propagate into the Pacific?

I don’t know. If we’re relying on the CFS to tell us a strong MJO is coming later in September, I’d be putting up caution flags. We’ve been down that road and it isn’t a great road to be down. JB kept using the CFS MJO forecast last winter to show the MJO was going to move strongly into 8 and 1. We all know how that turned out. The euro has it going back into the circle after coming out in 4 for awhile.

Is it going to stay that far east though? The pattern coming up for the first half of September seems to indicate the forcing will be more to the west with the Nina like pattern.