roardog

I think the biggest problems with this month prior to this week are: A lack of precip(extremely boring) The outrageous cold and snow in November which caused December to feel warmer than it really was so far.

I like the long range discussions you have in this sub forum even if I don’t live in it. Anyway, the pattern on the EPS and GEFS toward day 15 look more “Niña” to me. I wonder if we will start to see a rise in the SOI coming up. If we do start to see a rise in the SOI , I bet the MJO will come out of the COD too. It could also be that the day 15 look is completely wrong. lol I think watching this evolve is really interesting and also shows the limitations of both humans and models with forecasting even only two weeks out.

The current look toward day 15 on both the GEFS and EPS looks kind of “Nina” to me. It looks like it would be stormy in this sub forum if that look became reality.

Everyone in this subforum would love the current Weatherbell winter forecast.

Major ridging near Alaska seems to be the new thing the last few years. At least it helps the cold lovers in the lower 48 during the cold season.

5 months from now it will be October. Everything in your post will be happening well before then. Lol

Isn’t it unusual though for a second year El Niño to just keep strengthening through Spring right into Summer and Autumn? Doesn’t it usually dissipate a bit during the Spring before re-organizing during the Summer and Autumn?

Looking at these maps you would never guess this was an El Nino winter.

Do you think Nino again next Winter?

I like how that tree still has leaves hanging on.

It's looking like this month could really turn cold so I'm betting that you'll get dumped on this month. If it does turn really cold, you might be up to 100 inches by the end of the month.

It basically has your entire area colder than 3 degrees below normal and over 167 percent of normal snowfall. A small area around northern GA is 5 degrees below normal.

The winter outlook is already out on their premium site. You guys in the SE will love it. lol

Must be an offshore wind lol. The current observation is 62/59. I see they had temps in the upper 60s with the dewpoints in the upper 50s yesterday. That must feel so warm to the residents there. It looks like rain and snow showers in the forecast in a couple of days though.

Yes and I 100% guarantee that it will not be that warm.

Once we get into winter, is there a point where a blocky pattern can favor sea ice development? Wouldn't that correlate to lighter winds and less ice being flushed out?