roardog
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Everything posted by roardog
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Nino 4 up to +1.5 today.
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Has Paul Roundy said anything recently about believing it will go super?
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He goes from making snow to painting grass.
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Aren’t you the person that used to make snow to cover your yard?
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They haven’t been above freezing in at least the last 3 days and the highest forecasted temp there this week is 33. Their normal high is 28, so it only has to be 5 degrees above normal to be above freezing.
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Yeah but the point is that December, January and February could all be record warm months overall in Milwaukee and it could and probably would snow some in all 3 of those months. So, it’s impossible for Brian to answer your original question.
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The month could be +15 and there could still be a blizzard. All it takes is a cold day or two in a “warm” month of December to get snow.
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There seems to be pretty good agreement right now among the euro, Canadian and GFS ensembles of quite a cold shot between day 10 and day 15. Meanwhile the next 10 days aren’t exactly going to be warm either.
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The way I look at it is unless you’re really struggling with money, there’s no reason to be uncomfortable in your home.
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There are some posters in this sub forum that seem to be delusional about their climo and you win top prize for that. Actually I’m sure your act is more about trying to get people riled up than not understanding climo. The hard work it would take to grow palm trees in Wisconsin does make me wonder though. lol
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I'm starting to think the cold eastern US October that you're hoping for is a possibility.
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Your house must get full sun exposure along with you cooking in it to have it that warm because regardless of how well it’s insulated, a house will not stay that warm for that long from last week’s warm weather. If you subtracted the cooking and sun, your house wouldn’t be 70-74 degrees so you really can’t compare your situation to Michsnowfreak.
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There’s no way a house will stay above 68 when the air temp outside is as cool as it’s been with wind for this many days unless you’re doing something inside the house that warms it up.
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Considering 1.2 was over +3.6 in August, I would say there's been a huge drop.
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This is getting off topic but the recent global spike in temps has to be originating from something other than the underlying warming trend. It’s such a sudden spike. I’d bet we will eventually regress back to the mean.
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The new run looks like it would have colder air available for the country overall even if the east is warmer.
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The 2M anomaly maps on the seasonal models are terrible. The cold anomalies are always way underdone for a cold pattern. For it to show such a large area of the country at normal or below for 2M temps tells me that it must have a darn cold pattern depicted for the country overall. We would need to see the 500 MB heights to see how it really looks.
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Alex forecasts WAD every winter. lol
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The cool and windy August caused the buoy temps in Lake Huron to fall into the upper 50s due to the wind turning over the water. Now, it’s back up to the mid 60s because of the lack of wind recently. Once we get the wind this weekend, the buoy temps on all of the Great Lakes will probably drop a good bit.
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I’m just curious why you think that it will rebound that much from nearly record lows? Is it because you believe the Nino will force the change or are there other things that you’re seeing which will help force the change? It looks like the water off the west coast is cooling again starting to give it more of the classic -PDO look.
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We should let everyone that does the extremely hard work of putting togethet a winter forecast know that as long as this person is in their pool in October the temps the following winter will be mild. Throw everything else you thought you knew about seasonal forecasting out the window.
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It is but I think Nino 4 is the most impressive all things considered. The Nino 4 anomaly is almost as high as 3.4.
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Nino 4 up to 1.31 today. What was the highest anomaly Nino 4 had in ‘15-‘16?
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I can’t disagree with anything you wrote but at the end of the day, the official CPC numbers will be what goes into the record books. So posting the warm Coral Reef Watch to prove your point is irrelevant imo. If you’re posting it just for the sake of discussion, that’s one thing but posting it to prove the Nino is heading to super status when that’s not even the source used doesn’t make any sense.
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He keeps showing Coral Reef which is warmer than OISST even though it’s as irrelevant as CDAS for the official numbers.
