roardog

The southern part of the sub will probably for sure, maybe even 60. I could just see this being reminiscent to an April type set up where the warm front will struggle to move too far north. It will be mild either way but some sun and 60 versus low clouds and upper 30s.

Yeah but you gotta worry about sun angle and warm ground.

Those crazy abnormal heights in Canada are probably going to kind of act like a block which might keep it from getting too warm or cold. Days and days of low clouds and fog with easterly flow at the surface?

A lot of people on this board would hate that type of winter. I would probably get tired of the extreme cold with hardly any precip though too. From what I've read, it actually started to get milder in February then there was an early Spring which turned into a very mild Spring. So there was definitely some balancing that went on after the cold fall and winter.

It won’t take long in January to get air cold enough to snow if the flow is from northern Canada regardless of how much pacific air Canada gets filled with.

I think I speak for most here when I say I would love to read your winter forecast if you are willing to post it.

We all know what JB is but his call this time around wasn't bad. I have Weatherbell so I read all of them guys that post on there. JB has been saying since early Fall that his hurricane analog showed cold in the east between Thanksgiving and Christmas but it isn't useful beyond that time frame. So it's actually going to end up being a decent call that he made before the models were ever showing any sign of cold in the east in December.

You’re not wrong but since we just saw this happen recently and it could be at least partially responsible for our current pattern maybe it will cause more competing influences and we’ll go back to the pattern we have now. Maybe we should think about that instead of looking at it from the negative point of view and saying west based Nina pattern when we really don’t know.

You guys that complain about the cold and dry pattern should want the -PNA/SE ridge pattern. That’s what will open the Gulf of Mexico to Chicago. It could also bring 50 degrees and rain too but that’s the chance you have to take if you only want big storms.

It seems like the models have been trying to lower the heights in Alaska and western Canada after day 10 for awhile now but as we get closer in time more ridging keeps showing up. The forecasted cold in the east next week that wasn’t showing up even a couple of days ago is a good example of this.

I know we talk about RONI and how warm the oceans are and everything but it wasn’t that long ago that 3.4 was actually at a warm neutral level and the SOI was barely positive. We seem to finally be getting some strengthening of the cold waters in that region along with the recent big jump in the SOI. I kind of wonder if the atmosphere is still responding to the warm enso waters we just had. It wouldn’t surprise me if we start to see a more Nina like pattern as we head into January in response to what’s happening right now.

None of this means anything if the pattern is going to look like a Nino. Mild weather is coming but it’s not really because of a Nina look. It’s more strong Nino looking than anything.

The earlier discussion was about sea surface anomalies. Coral reef, OISST, CDAS are all at the lowest they have been in a long time.

There’s actually been a lot of cooling globally for whatever reason. The global anomalies are the lowest they’ve been in a long time.

I don't know. I mean if the atmosphere is classic Nina, wouldn't the global pattern reflect that? It looks nothing like Nina now and if the ensembles are correct with the Aleutian low in the medium range, that's about as opposite of Nina as you can get.