roardog

I'd rather have a cold and dry pattern that at least gets arctic air established in the area so that when moisture does come back you have a good chance of something wintry as opposed to the garbage in recent winters where every system is thread the needle slush balls falling from the clouds that take an hour just to start to accumulate.

That medium range look on the ensembles are a cold but dry look that's ripe for clippers. That's a pattern we haven't seen in like 70 years. Ok, maybe that's an exaggeration but it's been a long time since we've seen a pattern like the one shown.

Maybe the American models have just improved over the years.

This is off topic of Enso but I’m not convinced that the SST anomalies that drive oscillations like the PDO aren’t more of a result of the pattern as opposed to a driver of it. While everyone is watching for those anomalies to start to change, maybe it’s the pattern that needs to change first to get those anomaly changes rolling.

You're absolutely correct and it wouldn't shock me if the models were wrong about the cold in the medium/long range just because as you said they are often wrong. However, if the models were showing a furnace over the US to end November/start December there would be 50 tweets and 10,000 word essays about why the models are correct.

Isn’t the pacific jet always strong to an extent this time of year? Just about all of the posters in here are very knowledgeable with great information. This is one of if not the best thread on this board every year. However, It’s hard not to see who has the “warm bias” as soon as models start to show cold. If there’s a strong Nina there won’t be any cold, the Nina is too weak so there won’t be any cold, the atmosphere is acting like a Nino so there won’t be any cold. lol

If we can keep a nice stout Aleutian ridge to keep the Arctic air coming into North America and the MJO actually does make it into the cold phases, you guys might have a nice window later in December with cold air already close by.

Then it’s useless since there’s a good portion of this country that gets a lot of their snow on either side of meteorological winter.

Yeah. The global SST anomalies are actually the lowest we’ve seen in quite sometime at least as of a couple of days ago when I last looked.

We’ve had a lot of good radiational cooling nights this fall. Around here, being in a rural area, there’s been more freezes with nights in the 20s so far this year than we’ve had in recent years up to this point. What we haven’t had are any air masses cold enough to bring a freezing night with wind. This is why some of the warm urban temperature records can be a bit deceiving IMO. Although car thermometers are far from official temperature they sure do show you what concrete and urban development does on radiational cooling nights when driving around.

Am I crazy or was this pic from 2018 not 2019?

I think it was Raindance that showed a cold Nino 4 usually has a cold December followed by a flip going into January while a cold 1&2 usually has December as the mildest month.

The ensembles went from a huge vortex over and around Alaska with a trough down the west coast to above normal heights in Alaska and the west coast. A huge change over a day or so.

I know I’ve said this a million times but there continues to be a huge over reaction to this -PDO trough west/ ridge east pattern we’ve been in since the late 2010s. People act like the planet is so warm now that the right pattern can’t even get us a “cold” winter anymore. The western half of this country had a very cold winter just two years ago.

Pretty tight rain gradient with this system. There’s been over an inch here. There’s even standing water in the fields today.