Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Don't pay attention to modeled details of any specific threat beyond 7 days, man. You look for larger scale things not specifics. I find that watching a model run requires a certain level of emotional discipline...you can't go flying off at some discreet modeled threat changing/disappearing at D11, lol Yeah digital snow is fun to look at, but it's not to be taken literally at that range. Yeah I know if it disappears it "feels" like you've somehow "lost" it...but not so. You look more broadly at the pattern...there's a reason the more experienced posters here look at longwave patterns and such at Day 10 instead of an op run of a specific thing!
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Fixed
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And in this case that would do what to the MJO in terms of phases?
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Could you explain what/where the "Dateline bulge" is?
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Yes - forgot to respond my bad. Will look at it in a bit
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Maybe a little bit easier to share it straight from Twitter:
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I'd argue the Pacific has been more consistently hostile during that 7-year stretch than is was before (or so it seems). Like I said that pac might just be different now, who knows?
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Yes but did we not get the -NAO last December only to have the Pacific crap all over it? Or is something different this time?
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Wait are you really descended from Eskimos?
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Oh wow...that foliage! You can't get more picture-perfect than that. Certainly Vivaldi worthy That color is richer than any other that I've seen this Fall. (Do you think it's because they're a different type of tree?) And the National Cathedral...gonna make my first visit there for the Messiah in a couple weeks! Looking forward to seeing how it looks in person (they kinda became a second church of sorts as we started watching the services during the pandemic!)
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Oh yeah I wasn't blaming ya for skepticism...I totally get it. Just used your comments as an example to show said "scars" many of us are carrying, lol For me, I try not to go there (easier said than done sometimes, lol) and just live in the now of what models are showing...and finally having a legit niño. So if anything I'm happy that it appears we could get our best swing in...but do we connect? Stay tuned
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See this? The scars are real y'all, lol
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Ya sure thar didn't miss South because of the PDO? Lol (only half-joking because I don't have a visual of what a -PDO does to storm tracks for us) And come to think of it...how is it we only got 1.2 inches of snow yet the winter was near-normal temp wise? I mean I get a fluke miss, but where were the rest of the flakes? Lol
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@psuhoffman @Terpeast (and whoever else wants to weigh in) Been reading about the PDO this evening...when you made your outlooks, what were your thoughts about about it still being so negative yet with a nino that's strong but not super? Another poster aptly named it a potential "battle royale"...I'm wondering if a weird in between solution is on the table as well...
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I'm wondering if the apparent extinction of the Alberta Clipper is a microcosm of this.
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I'm trying not to ask too many questions, but I'm trying to conceptualize how all this fits together, lol So you have a strong niño, a -PDO (with a coolness you usually see in ninas, right?). How does the WPAC warm pool fit into all this? Overall...sounds like competing forces...
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Sheesh...you weren't kidding, lol And none of the strong ones came close! Wonder what the potential implications would be?
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Which El ninos of the past were -PDO dominated?
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We have ourselves a new good poster If you haven't been here before welcome aboard!
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Oops...Ravens in the No. 1 seed spot for now! (As long as we don't stay there...after 2006 and 2019 I do NOT want us to win that top seed! Let the Chiefs have it, lol)
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All we can look at at this stage (that and PSU's inch, that is)
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*puts on @ravensrule mask* If you don't know where you're peeing at I think you have bigger problems.
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As it has been since that update last year. Is it too early to say it just can't be trusted as much? Even in last year's mediocrity it seemed like it was off the rails on several occasions...
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Bringing this here to not clutter up further. I guess...I was just trying to get folks to understand the why of my reaction and others. Some of you seem to be mystified as to why. I mean I get what you're saying though...just made sure there was understanding of why. Some of ya don't seem to understand what it's like, tbh...
