Maestrobjwa

Don't know the reason for the snark here as I just asked a layman question...but getting back to the point I get it. I was legit wondering--this is my first niño tracking since being on this board (I was here in 2016 but wasn't looking at things as closley), so I really haven't known what to expect on some things like that. How much NS we get in a niño, how it looks...etc.

Thought a flurry of NS vorts was usually a Nina problem?

That would be a birthday/Christmas wish for me, lol

Alright it's clear I'm gonna have to sue for copyright infringement....avocado be mine invention

Believe it or not, I'm just about there! For some reason, this year my tolerance level for it has taken a nosedive (ironic, I know lol). Wish folks would keep some stuff in the Panic Room...and stop overreacting to details of a fantasy range model output (I mean some of the worst posters have also been on this site awhile and oughta know better!) I'm just getting to a "I can't take it anymore" level with that kind of stuff.

What would this imply? (Forgive me...this layman is lost on the SSW discussion, lol)

Doesn't have to be. It's all in how you think about it

I actually didn't either until I think @SnowenOutThere told me about it (thank you!) There are actually a few apps you can choose from. It blocks sites and apps for whatever increments of time you choose. I only just started using it last week, but it already seems to be helping (I'm not touching the other part of your response, lolol)

This is why I'm glad I downloaded site blocker to limit my time on this site, lol All I need are the insights from the good posters after the models and ensembles run on the Zs...I can't keep dealing with this other stuff and all the swings...nor do I wanna get sucked back into that myself.

Huh...red flag? Like I said...such a rapid deterioration of snow climo even up to Boston would be crazy to see...like somebody just flipped a switch as opposed it happening gradually. Seeing this helps keep the expectations sober...

That would be my farewell to this forum--I'd put the site blocker on permanently, lol Like there would literally be no point to tracking snow anymore, then coming in here to be collaboratively miserable. I mean why do that? Quite frankly if this doesn't work this time, and you aren't in it for the enjoyment of the science, and are just here for the snow like many of us, you'd best sign off and not waste anymore time and emotional energy. Not to mention though...wouldn't that also show that the entire snow climo of entire I-95 corridor even up to Boston just deteriorated so rapidly? That would be pretty crazy to see. I mean mercy the blitz of 2013-2016 wasn't THAT long ago was it? Lol

Yeah and besides, if it's a good winter, AND one where we get a big one, as long as you don't travel from Jan 10th-Feb 20th, ya won't miss it most of the time (looking at the historical records, it's amazing how many fell in that date range, but there were a couple somewhat recent exceptions in 1993, 1996 & 2009 of course)

And quite frankly...I thought climate stuff was gradual? Could it have really just turned on a dime after 2016 and suddenly get drastically worse (as opposed to incremental changes) after one particular year? I've always been a bit skeptical of that...but hey, I'm just a layman here!

Why is that, anyway? And looking at our previous snows...I'm curious about what percentage came as the pattern broke down vs. the beginning of it.

I know for me, I'm not looking for distinct threats at hr 240...just whether the pattern is changing. And on that side of things...we've had a lot of positive moved on the ensembles the last several days, haven't we? Don't put the cart before the horse...getting the pattern to not look completely crappy going into January is step one, lol

Better than the opposite...lol Having the opposite issue blows games...I'll take this all the day!

That was an absolutely CRAZY throw and catch...that defender was just sitting on the ground like "Whhhhhyyyyyyy???" Lol

Yeeeeeaaaaah buddy!!! (If I wasn't on a partial fast from this forum I would've posted that first, lol) This is a global holiday as far as I am concerned

I think I'd be too ashamed to show up to a forum gathering...lol

Yeah I remember that year the Winter Olympics were in Canada and they were having a snow shortage, lol (remember laughing at that irony while we were buried deep here!) So yeah it was definitely warm! Wait so what was the mechanism that made the cold for those storms?

I actually wasn't sure it had something to do with that or not. I keep seeing folks say the artic air is "kicked" or "trapped" on the other side of the globe...Now from a layman perspective, I thought that implied there was another mechanism that did that. So you're saying all the pac air kicks the colder air to the other side of the hemisphere, or? And from that same perspective...I also don't get how "that" problem means warm or our side of the hemisphere but still cold there. May be a dumb question, but remember...non-scientifically oriented poster here. Sometimes we need a "for dummies" explanation of these things!

Anybody care to weigh in on why we've been seeing this more often lately?

To bad you got married on top of a winter unicorn...hard to recreate that one

Sure hope they're right. I would hate for something like a +NAO all winter to mess this up...because not only would it suck for this year, we still wouldn't know whether a Niño still works since we could point to that as a culprit. Like you said earlier...hopefully we won't have to do that analysis, lol

I'm almost sure getting moisture won't be an issue this year, lol This is why I feel like this winter is either gonna be above average or a complete ratter. If something cold-ruining were to lock in (let's hope not), then it'll be hard to get anything it seems...But all it takes is for the cold to be there even a few times to result in the many AN snowfall predictions to come true.