Maestrobjwa

Welp, if that was the tipping point, at least it went out with one big blizzard, lol

Given the GEFS runs today, the subjects overlapped. That's gonna happen sometimes. Ensemble runs are long range: but the 12z and 18z gefs showed (or burped) something comparable to the previous years, raising the questions.

Please don't tell me how to use my app...Now, I may not need it if things go to crap...I'll just lose interest on tracking like I did last February and won't have a desire to be on here or TT, lol

So basically, the pattern progression the next few weeks is gonna have huge implications for the future. Will be watching ensembles closely (and a bit nervously given what it could mean). Man I hope the GEFS is wrong!

But wait...how does that compare to this? It was an epic outlier--but it didn't exactly set off a 7-year heater (though 2009-2016 did have some great years obviously). This is different: 2016 happened, the boom: a precipitous drop. Not gradual...but sharp!

If things don't work out and this is it (we don't know that yet of course), I wanna know why it happened so quickly. Like something just flips on a dime in 2016...that doesn't make sense to me. Somebody needs to study that year...To see such a precipitous drop, it had to be a catalyst somewhere, right?

Yeah even from a layman perspective, I'm not sure why some are comparing the two as if they're similar. Wouldn't any comparison to ash/sulfur eruptions of the past be irrelevant because we're dealing with water vapor instead?

Simply (or maybe not so simply)...I think those that have such responses, and snow lovers in general, don't want to admit it's a possibility (not 100% certain but possible) that the snow climo could be permanently altered. I don't think any of us WANT that to be true...so is the resistance/cognitive dissonance really such a surprise? And of course there are those that don't want to be wrong anyway, lol I think we need to be real about where things may be, yet understanding of how we're feeling about the POSSIBILITY of a new reality. No matter what, anybody that loves snow may have to adjust if it's true because it would potentially suck for everybody...so let's just be patient with each other as we grapple with that possibility.

So like...are we in a climate where Ninas couple really well but niños have trouble? Is that where we are now? Smh (The 2018-19 barely coupled at all)

I can't believe how folks are still ungrateful for that storm...I mean, look how the winters since that one have looked! Be grateful for crying out loud!

The fact that El Niños are mostly backloaded is reason for more optimism...or at least middling expectations, lol This is not the first above average niño to look like this on December 27th. So looking forward to mid/late January isn't unreasonable given the history.

Not a SE ridge. Look at the 500 mb panels. A SE ridge is usually that orange blob that comes out of the southeast...but that isn't there now.

Might I suggest the Site blocker app? It will prevent you from coming on here, TT, Weatherbell, or any other weather site for however long you want. I've started using it to limit my time on here...Less exposure will be better for ya--trust me, lol

You also can't be picky either. If 2009-10 or 95-96 was your minimum, you won't be happy even if we get an epic storm that gives us more than we've gotten in a storm since 2016. I'd suggest considering the last 7 years and adjust your gratitude for what we get accordingly.

We don't know. Better to just watch and not assume the worst. (Or better yet maybe not watch too closely until mid Jan). The better thing about this year as opposed to last is that this is a Niño. So we can't just say it won't work out because of what happened last year. Niños past have taken time (usually to mid-Jan at the earliest) to flip more favorable. So we legit just don't know what it's gonna look like...so may as well just watch, lol

Indeed--!lways has been! All but maybe 4 of our biggest storms have fallen in that time frame.

And relocating well inland if what he says is indeed happening. That's the craziest part to me. I'm seeing this model run demonstrating his point...and I see rain even in Boston!! I guess if you're further up 95 like Boston you have to go west, down here north AND west? Lol

It's not a "weenie hive-mind" when you carefully make a forecast based on multiple factors that have worked before (Nino, blocking, etc). That's actually a tad insulting (even if you didn't mean it that way) If any warming effects have actually sped up and that's the reason it doesn't work out, you cannot blame anybody for not seeing that. There is no way to know if it were to happen that fast. But let's not talk about something that hasn't happened and just wait and see. To my brain, I have both the great outcome and the other outcome as legit possibilities. Fact of the matter is...we just don't know yet, and all we can do is sit back and watch!

Why do folks kinda bristled at the term base state, though? I mean...if you start seeing things you can't quite explain...wouldn't that mean some kind of pre-existing state may be to blame? Like if it worked 10 years ago but doesn't now...isn't that something to be considered?

If it's any comfort...if we are closer to "that day"...so is the entire east coast up 95. Like even up in Boston that's not snow. So whatever it is...at least it's not just down here while north is still cold enough, lol (Would the old joke of "just move north" Turn into "Just move north AND inland"?) That would be a crazy implication for it to happen to everybody at once, and seemingly flip on a dime like that!

Statement game by the Ravens tonight. A literal "Our goal is the Superbowl but put some respect on our name" kind of night! Heck yeah they felt dissed (as they should have--I mean 4 or 5 point underdogs? Seriously? Lol)--and they went and took care of business. Proud of the way they are playing--and now, they are FINISHING games, and actually getting stronger in the 2nd half as opposed to fading. Beautiful to see--this is how you potentially start peaking at just the right time. On to the potential No. 1 seed decider next week! GO RAVENS!!

Yes indeed. And yeah, I think Lamar is a little annoyed at that too...tonight he literally called it "noise", lol

Also, Merry Christmas to you all (didn't chime in earlier because I wanted to keep my focus on Christmas...but I did peek, lol). Hope everyone has had a blessed day!

Woooooowee!!! Man this Ravens D is showing Purdy some stuff tonight, lolol

I start Chapter 33 today: Thankful for another year! And another chance to get it right, lol 32 was rocky...esepcially professionally/emotionally. Yet somehow...said rockiness could serve to cultivate my growth for the future. Here's to being better at age 33! Merry Christmas everyone!