Maestrobjwa

If you're a snowlover, wouldn't a warm Phase 4 MJO mess all of that up? Would hate to have all that blocking but too warm, smh

Good thing the long range doesn't actually look too crappy

Good to see ya post here again! On a comical note I case you missed it...someone mentioned you but accidentally spelled your username as "usedrobe" Lolol

Didn't the blocking in most of our best Niños come later (like after mid-Jan?) Edit: Like @CAPE's post, lol

BWI. (Perhaps this is less banter and more LR discussion, but I was about to share this list JB2 made several years ago) See what I mean? Lol The only outlier was January 1996...which I can imagine was a combination of ninas being front-loaded, and having that crazy anomalous blocking regime you and others have talked about.

Combination of the latest model runs suggest more rain for I-95 and more frozen n & w, do they not? Now you gave me a weenie emoji the other day when I said that even when model runs looked better...but here we are, lol It just smelled like that on Monday to me. This isn't a setup that has the snowiest of the three options, I don't think. Besides...it's maybe a week or two too early (I looked up past snowstorms and only one fell the first week of January. I'm not sure why that happens but that seems to be a historical trend!)

Yes I kinda knew it was a joke--but it certainly didn't feel like a harmless one but one meant to embarass/shame for the way I thought about something even after I explained the reason why (the proverbial being laughed at as opposed to laughed with) I was being genuine about my thought process I didn't take it too well when somebody makes light of it. If you didn't intend that...I apologize. Overreacted

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm, but in case it's not...I'll give you a hint: we are all familiar with Jay, lol

Was that really necessary? Some of you have no sensitivity for psychology whatsoever. I just explained my brain (or tried to) just as a way of getting folks to understand my thinking (as I often do)...but sheesh that was a tar and feathering! I KNOW I'm not the only one who worries about stuff sometimes...

Well I mean...it's been nothing but bad news and things going wrong the last 7 years, compounded by more bad news of a potential negative change in climo. I think I've been interpreting everything in that lense...Now to be fair, the main part of your post pointed out a speculative negative...so I kinda went "UGH" because again, we've had so many negatives over the last 7 years, and often your posts during that stretch (that are factual--not criticizing that or saying you shouldn't say something) have been bad news...I guess it's a bit of a learned reaction! You haven't been able to deliver much good news before now, so I assume it's gonna be bad, lol And anytime you post even a tiny concern, it seems magnified...but that part is a me problem so pay that no mind, lol

We can never go without SOMETHING to worry about, can we? So we're getting the GEFS full lat ridge idea out of the way (admittedly I zeroed in on watching that after you mentioned it)...but now here's something else, lol Ah well...life in our climo!

Have you looked at the history of our best Niños? Just take a look at our biggest snows and tell me when most of them fell. (Hint: Only one of them fell before mid-January)

Try not to fall into the trap of expect TOO much from NWP for some details from a certain range. Said details that make a big difference can't always be seen from 6 days out...Computers are way, way ahead of 1998, but still not at a place where they can say a week out what it will do when you have various shortwave interactions. I think we get starry eyed at a Day 6 bomb and subconsciously expect that to happen. But the change we saw with this storm is normal variability at this range as the models focus in. Rule of thumb for weekend threats: Don't let yourself get invested before Wednesday. I find that's always a line of demarcation for big shifts (and even then...weather still has chaos). That's how I look at it, anyway.

It shouldn't be if folks look at the pattern beyond this weekend. Sure you can't shovel pattern, but better pattern=better chances. And remember, we are just outside the sweet spot on the calendar for most niño succeses!

Yeah if we're looking at shortwave interactions...I do have to wonder how well the GFS is gonna handle that (no copium here, just wondering given it's jumpiness since the upgrade)

Dang pretty much all rain for the metros this run. Ah well, if this one doesn't work out, at least the upcoming pattern looks more promising!

Should we like...make Wednesday AM the checkpoint for making a thread for a weekend threat? Although it seems this time we may already be close to knowing that this will indeed affect some portion of the subforum at least!

But yet you said it...and I don't quite get that. If it is, it is...why don't we just enjoy tracking this, and if that happens, discuss it later? To me, sometimes it's not about whether something is true, but when ya say it....but this could be me overreacting.

It just amazes me that when we're tracking something, no matter what hour...those panels are missing, haha Reverse extrapolation ftw...

Dang it ICON...it's always the exact panels you need, lolol

Oh wow this is a site history gold mine, lol Thanks for sharing!

Why not just...stay in the present for a moment? No "if we didn't"...we DO have this storm to track. And the 12th/13th is almost 2 weeks away and we wouldn't be able to identify a specific threat right now anyway. Just enjoy now!

TUTTs?

Based on history...this sure smells like one of those 1-3" to rain in cities more n & w to me (not trying to be a Deb though). I mean, we are at the beginning of a favorable pattern change...I wonder it it's a tad early for I-95. But hey, maybe I'm just rambling, lol

How about...not worrying about anything and just watching, brother? Happy New Year