Maestrobjwa

I guess you'd expect to see more tucked members overall?

Yeah I'm not sure they do it EVERY time...I mean the 2017-18 nina didn't, and instead we got a weak niño instead. But double dipping does seem to happen more overall, smh

Pulling away? So you're NOT gonna be back next year to remind us about how poor they're doing?

Well, that would be the next test. I mean last year was so insanely negative I wonder if that would've worked with any niño in the past (anybody have any analogs). You'd HOPE a modoki with a +PDO would yield a better result...but as with everything else ya still have to see what still works and how.

Didn't that torch in February, though?

Brief, muted warm-ups followed by a quick return to cold has probably been THE most refreshing tendency of this season. I mean how often have we had to deal with the polar opposite the last several years? Lol

This is why I couldn't go any lower than a B- even with another winter below the median for my yard. We all expected it to be crappy coming in, and instead...the "feel" was wall-to-wall winter! A very pleasant surprise--really enjoyed January in particular...haven't had an almost month-long snowpack since what...2014? Now, we don't talk about models (no, no, no)...

This part. I think avoiding this emotional pitfall is key to ingesting these snowmaps in a healthy way. Don't start fantasizing when ya see them at 120+ hours--nip that in the bud and toss the pretty pinks aside as a non-reality. Otherwise...you WILL start to get attached subconsciously even when you logically know it's far from bejng set in stone. So I guess it's a bit of a mental discipline thing, lol

I stand corrected, lol And you're right--that buried in a sea of pink Euro snowmaps...

Never hold back your alarm bells, Bob! I think it would go a long way in setting more realistic expectations around here--seriously!

Whoa...wasn't expecting that lecture. I never meant that you should sugarcoat anything. You keep things realistic and we need that. And I'm not telling YOU how to post, per se. That was just MY opinion on the "what if" part of this we don't know yet. That unknown is also part of the reality. We don't know--You could be right, or perhaps it could be better. We can choose which one we focus on in the midst of any disappointment over this winter. Funny...one poster skewered me terribly for debbing on his unlimited optimism about a winter (and folks in general when I'd say in the Fall I doubted the winter results) And now I counter with a positive spin and get this. Ah, well...can't please everybody

So...what are the early thoughts on ENSO next year?

It might be healthier if we don't go there, lol And actually...here's another plot turn: The first year in awhile (9 years?) that we didn't have a deeply negative PDO (but rather slightly negative) we also had our best opportunities...so maybe that means we'll have more opportunities if it is indeed flipping?

I feel like they all crapped the bed in the midrange with this one.

Shoulda spaced that out more for full effect, lol

And in turn did a number on the forum, lol

Really putting it on the line aren't you? Lol

Welp, I guess that's that for this winter barring a miracle comeback. This winter was a mixed bag for me. I am glad it looked and felt like winter most of the time. We had true cold air to work with all season, and warm-ups were the exception not the rule. You'd have cold, brief warm intrusion, then cold--polar opposite of years like 22-23, lol After all the "too warm" discussions we've had...this time winter felt like winter. I mean we actually had a snowpack for almost the entire month of January--when's the last time that happened? This winter was no where near as hopelessly nina as any of us thought it would be. Even February wasn't a complete torch, lol That too warm thread was abandoned this year Now, while this winter gets an A+ for a winter atmosphere with consistent cold and snowpack, the results were downright mediocre for my yard. Fringed over and over again, smh I was hoping this would be the year I finally broke the streak of not getting at least a 6" snowfall. But alas...Baltimore's rough stretch continues. If this week's threat doesn't come back, this would be the 6th year in a row I didn't even get to median let alone average. The last 9 years have been below typical climo (so for those thinking my expectations are "unrealistic"...I'd like to think all of you would expect your climo. I do, and it just hasn't gotten there for quite awhile.) So, my overall grade: B-.

Now perhaps I can only speak for myself...Bob I'd much rather you DO post your opinion like that than not. It's just like last year: you said you saw something early on that didn't scream stable blocking to you but you stayed quiet. I was actually slightly annoyed and was thinking "Maaaann why didn't you say something earlier???" I value your opinion and other knowledgeable posters, and I kinda use those to get an idea on what to expect (and in last year's case I probably would've tempered expectations about said blocking as I don't know how this stuff works as a layman) So if that's where I'm art...I'm sure there are others here would much rather have your opinion than not

Wait how would that be good for the rest of the forum? Lol If ya go with that that would means central and n. MD would be, well ya know...

But in this case though...isn't the H5 setup different than the other mire sliderish waves we've had? Or...has there been something this winter that has caused said deamplification tendency?

I just wanna know a reason. If it's gonna fail at least make it make sense, lol

Why isn't this making sense? Have we ever had a potential fail like this before? Since I've been on this board (not long--11 years, lol), every storm that hasn't worked out has had a reason. This would be the first one that doesn't and that's even more annoying.

Got a cousin that lives 15 mins from St. Mary's College and I've been giving him virtual side eye all winter...this is gonna take it to a whole other level

Not talking about your opinion on whether it's over...ya just sound like you're yelling.