Maestrobjwa

So you're saying it doesn't look like we get that blocking in the foreseeable future, or?

Snow-lover's version of a Stephen King novel...smh I hope that could happen...at least give us something to offset that nightmare scenario!

And that would mean a little more time in the "warm" phases?

Thanks for sharing (although I couldn't read the study in it's entirety because of the paywall). But what would you say the consequences of that expanding warm pool would be? (or is that the unknown part? Lol Sounds like it's saying that it's hard to tell what exactly it will do to the MJO. But what about other things?)

Now, correct me if I'm overgenaralizing...and perhaps my worry isn't too rational...But I've always had a nagging fear of this being the new normal (that is, that we'll start seeing this every single year). I mean, I guess 2 years in a row doesn't mean much statistically, but...I'm just wondering (maybe this is more for the global warming thread...where I hesitate to traverse, lol)

Now think about it...can we really afford to be picky in our region? Especially if a) the only way we can score comes via rogue event, )sure happened like that in 2006...although I don't remember how long that one stayed around), and... b) we only get the 12-16 inchers every 3-4 years anyway? Gotta take it however we can get it, lol

I'm still hoping for a one-footer this year...even if it comes via fluke! C'mon, every 3-4 year trend...don't stop now, lol

@psuhoffman Yeah man you don't have to sugarcoat anything...just calling it as you see it. Yes, it sucks that things are setting up this way...but there's no need to shoot the messenger. I mean...personally, if we gotta punt half or more of winter away I'd much rather know it now and just snow-grieve the loss than have the heightened expectations we had going into last year. Will be nice to just be surprised in a good way.

I believe you mean Feb 9-10 (and the flowing Wednesday) 2010?

I personally don't have a problem punting the first or second week of winter...For me, since most of our major snowfalls historically don't come until after that, that's fine. But if this +AO malady eats into the prime period...that WILL be crappy. (man, I hope we can benefit from the solar minimum next year if we can't this year...provided something else in the atmosphere doesn't screw that up too) That being said, I'm still hangin' on the every 3-4 year trend for one-footers at BWI--I'll ride that horse till' the streak breaks! It'll be 4 years since 2016...(hey, we got a fluke in 2006 to keep the streak goin, right? )

Actually HM did make a vague mention about something in the pattern looking "sorta like"the "transitions" at the end of Dec 1986 and Dec 1982 for the Januaries that followed...lol (of course I could be reading a bit too much into it)

@psuhoffman I sent ya a DM a couple days ago...lol (was askin' something about the map from Feb 2006 you posted the other day)

Is this similar what we know it will look like for this current stretch? (also, I sent ya a DM)

I see...so in that winter we managed to take a swing during that tiny window and just happened to hit a homerun, lol I mean, I'd call that thread the needle in a more general sense of getting a good swing during a very brief favorable period! And what do ya know...that one time was all it took for the "1 foot storm every 3-4 years" trend to continue (otherwise we would've had a drought of footers until 2009-10!) Hopefully we can get at least one swing like that this winter...even if things don't get more favorable overall (but hopefully they do)

Random question: Now I see back in 2005/06 we got that one storm that dumped about a foot at BWI and then not much the rest of the winter (I don't know why I don't remember that one, lol)...Now was that one of those situations where we lucked into something during a variable pattern (with hostile periods, I'm guessing)?

Now...I'm wondering if that means this ends up like the 2005/06 winter when got a single 1 footer and not much else, lol (I'm still bettin' on that 1 footer because of our recent every 3-4 year cycle for those!)

Next 8-10 days or beyond that?

Except just now!

This statement has more truth than you realize...lol

So what was it about that day (other than the epic snow? Lol)

Yep we wasted opportunities. Boston has one of their snowiest Decembers and we got jack. Weve had 6 weeks of decent cold anomalies . And everytime we needed one Break in our favor we broke the other way. Last winter I got 30 inches lol and it was still painful Whoa, whoa backup...you got that much (probably the most of the subforum)? I know it was a rather frustrating winter, but...dude, lol

And for our most significant snows...mid Jan-Feb (but not the last week of Feb for whatever reason, lol) and early March has been the general strike zone even in previous decades (but if you include the 1-4" storms, I guess we did use to have a better chance in late Dec/early Jan. But these days we don't get much in that time period...so it's not as disappointing to me when it doesn't happen then. I just look ahead to the prime climo time!

Why should it when punting the last week of Dec and the first of Jan has become the norm? (Maybe I'm over-generalizing too much, so correct me if I'm wrong). I've come to not expect any notable snow between Christmas and mid-Jan (biggest ones don't happen until mid-Jan and Feb 20th)...So as long as this crap don't start eating into the middle of Jan...I can deal with that

Got some somewhat steady light flurries here in Balt. City as well! Temp around 37.

Yeah that too, lol But just overall...what purpose to the weather community are they serving? (just for weenie runs? Lol)