Maestrobjwa

Ha...this is gonna be fun. Let's see how many rain/snow flip flops we get over the next 8 days...lol

Hm...but with a track like that...can ya trust it? I could see if it was a difference like 18z with where the dividing line was...but in this case it was a completely different look. Strengthens a case for tossing it, imo...

Why do you say that? Dude...it's just Day 8, lol If this comes down to an exact track, ain't now way this is gonna be figured out right now (remember last run when it cut the storm? Lol) But yes, as psu said, we could very well need a perfect track...and if that be the case, keep expecting model swings till err, is don't know...next Thursday? I'm not even sure the "setup" is in stone yet!

And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something. The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen). P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather.

Yeah I mean...and perhaps this is overly simplistic...but I see all those waves as dice. So say there's like 5 waves...if we can't get at least 1/5, then that's bad even for us, lol You'd have to imagine something would time up somewhere...but we shall see.

Ya I dont get this dude. We might on the average get 4 days a year where heavy snow falls. He might need to move Alright, alright...I know that was in response to what I said yesterday...so I can respect the counter-jab...lol Hello pot, I'm kettle

Exactly (same up here! At least DC was thrown a bone last year with the January snow, lol)

Nah wasn't your fault, I wasn't specific, lol

Yeah I was

Ah, my apologies: I meant to say we only got 4.8 from that January system that gave DC a foot. 18.3" for the year is correct.

I'm not trying to "convince" myself of anything...stop accusing me of denying reality. I've said over and over again that the trend could break anytime. Yes I'm hoping it doesn't...sure I guess we've been fortunate to be able to time it with a watch the last 27 years. But I am NOT trying to deny reality. And no, I cannot move somewhere else...that option isn't possible or feasible at this juncture. I was just making a general wish that we find a way to make it work...not because of numerics or reality denial, but because 4 years in a row would just be awful. (And I'm dreading the drought going longer. We've gotten away from la nina, but still ain't been able to get things right or get a mod nino (mercy how rare are those anyway? Once a decade???)

Up here we only got 4.8 inches...that was basically a dc/nova jackpot. I mean, we had some nice "scenery" snow...but the fact remains for all of us that we've only gotten to pull out a shovel one time since 2016 (so far)

And yet when we had cold air masses during the two dreadful la nina years....suppression and snowhole, smh Mercy...I'm telling ya, if we cannot overcome this this year (or get lucky with a perfect track coastal bomb) and score at least once, this will go down as the worst 4-year stretch of winter we've had since that period between 1988 and 1992, smh We don't have to snow every year...but in a 4 year span we always manage to score at least once or twice among all the chaos. We have got to find a way this year...

You're on a roll today!

By far, lolol

How many waves are we lookin' at here?

I'd wait to see what happens the next 10-12 days. If we still manage to whiff even after all that activity...then bring out the teardrop, lol (so let's hope ya keep it on the shelf!)

I'm not, but...I just don't understand that dude, lol Anyway...it seems like we haven't had to deal with "strung out" since the awful la Nina's a couple years ago. And this year everything has been kinda juiced...but cutters. If we now finally have a chance at a southern system...and cold in place before it...ya never know! Just glad to see us back in the game again!

Yeah we ain't had suppression all winter...if it were to suddenly be an issue that would just be a case of MAI (mid-atlantic-itis)

Why are you living model run to model run this far out? Thus is madness, brother....I'd suggest stepping away for a day. Emotional (I'm contemplating the same thing...temptation will be hard to resist, lol) Emotional model watching in the LR=bad!

Man I hope so...otherwise that's gonna be a real knife in the heart after what we've been through with snow the last few years (especially to happen right at the end of what's supposed to be the coldest part of the year!)... C'mon...we oughta be due, lol

Nooooooo buddy...besides, Bob had this one first, lol

Of all the things that we haven't been able to get to trend our way in the medium range...I'd take my chances for a trend to a colder solution (and only needing small shifts for such). Here's hoping it's still there next Tuesday!

Yes that is the chill storm...the feb 1 bomb is still unnamed Wondering if the first cuts...could it serve as a 50/50 for the second?...

Yeah I'm starting to think long range looks are getting pointless to look at, lol It's becoming increasingly clear that we are gonna have to pray for a bit of fortune in perfect timing during a very transient window...obviously the looks up top ain't wanting to change anytime soon, smh