Maestrobjwa

Nah one nina coming in and doing that doesn't make Nina's awesome--especially given the highly anomalous set of circumstances that led to that one. No nina before that one or since has ever done anything remotely close...so logic says: Nina's=snow chances practically over before winter starts, lol

I hope not...I guess the only way it can be worse is if we draw a bad enso state (that is, la nina or a super nino). And it's a shame...I had a little more hope for next week...but now the models are trying to show cutter. If they were to lock into this solution, that would be yet another kick in the nads (and we're still crawling from the last one, lol)

@frd You actually counted how many time the ICON and CMC failed? Hahaha Impressive

Man the ice under your feet lacks depth at the moment..

See, I am trying to hold back the gloom and doom...but as my brain often does, it worries about disaster scenarios in the future. My biggest worry is that, in the event we don't produce this year, we are unlucky enough to get a la nina again next winter. See, we always role dice on the ENSO state...but landing on a la nina would all but certainly guarantee a 5th consecutive year of futility. I mean literally not worth tracking anything during a la nina. (I know some of you don't count the last two years as futile...but for warning level events? Absolutely. Personally, I have yet to crack 5" since the 2016 blizzard). I am hoping this second neutral/weak nino we're in can give us something in case that happens...be it February or early March.

Oh that dang Walker cell structure...I don't fully understand what it is, but...didn't something about that screw us over last winter too?

So like...is everybody just completely baffled about this NAO no longer being negative in the winter? Has anybody offered any actual explanation? And agreed...we may have to get something in a tiny passing window. (To me, next weekend would be the chance for that...at least we got a LITTLE more cold air to work with...)

It's not a bad look on the GFS for next weekend I don't think...aside from the verbatim solution on an OP 9-10 days out, lol

Man I hope not....I mean I think we'd all be about ready to jump off a cliff! It would be crappy even by our standards to get two coastal two weeks in a row during prime climo to not produce. C'mon, we deserve for this next one to work out, lol

While it is obviously wayyyyyy too early to even think about temperature specifics on an op run...just the mere image of that kinda ticks ya off knowing this is the reality of THIS weekend, lol But for now...good to see the models picking up a storm for that time period...hopefully we have a better source of cold air that time.

Ehhh I wouldn't say forget about it just yet...there are some years where it can be crappy...but then we do get that one. But perhaps just casually look for now, lol Another resource to refer back to is the BWI snowfall history: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiHlciuv6nnAhUTNn0KHRBcDpoQFjADegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo Just one look at that will give you an idea of how wild the swings in snowfall can be around here (now of course that list doesn't account for n & w of the cities, but you'll still get a pretty good idea). The only decade where it snowed consistently year-to-year is the 60s (man that must've been awesome!) But then early to mid-70s? Futility, lol (but then we get two boom winters of 1977-78 and 1978-79).

Ohhhhh I LOVE that part...It almost gives you chills (but can you imagine the shock of people back then? Lol And this wasn't the only work on that program that night). It is so suspenseful (and of course we know where it's about to go). It's a slowly rising phoenix that erupts into a blaze of glory! (and of course such a transitional part was one of Beethoven's many glass-shattering innovations that others would follow)

Ya know I have to wonder...If you're a meteorologist, does loving snow serve as a hindrance or a help? I mean, I suppose if you love it and your a bonafide met, ya gotta be extra conscientious about putting it on the shelf in favor of making an unbiased forecast.

But overall...would you say this would be at least a slightly better scenario than what we have this week? (i.e. more cold air around)

My goodness...glad to hear that he survivex! And you're right...there are indeed greater worries in life. Why we get like this on here is baffling...but my thinking of it is: sometimes, we look to snow as the "happiness". The exciting thing to look forward to...And while enjoying snow is what we all do here, the problem comes in wrapping up that "joy" in getting snow--instead of letting ourselves be fulfilled by other, much more dependable things (and outside of winter, I'm sure we find them, lol). But during winter, it's like...."ah, this is gonna make me happy!" and ya start following every model run looking for a promise of "joy" in the immediate future. So, when it doesn't come...folks can be depressing on here since it can feel like something is being stolen or away, or happiness denied. And it doesn't matter how realistic the chances are of a particular event...no snow can still be depressing even if you expect it. But it's a flawed thought pattern, though... (A bit of a ramble, but I suppose this is just an observation of my own psychology and other's, lol)

I didn't think they were that bad for that. (I mean, no degradation of the look of a southern wave and colder air in place than this week) But I'll defer to the more experienced posters in case I'm not looking at it right...lol)

Correct Probably the most famous 4-note motif in the history of music, lol (Have you ever listened to the entire symphony? If you haven't...DO IT!!! Haha You will discover just how many different ways he incorporates that same "short-short-short-looooong" pattern throughout the whole work!

Lol Perfect! (are you a musician?)

I've been curious about the first of the two...Now I'm not clear on the whole cutter setting up a transient 50/50 thing. Is this the kind of setup where that can happen?

Dang it man what did you just do

What do ya mean...ya get a thrill off of the borderline storms? You sadist...lol But I'm kinda split on the wet vs cold thing...but wet is pretty exciting! The only downside is...it's more back-breaking to shovel it! But hey--I'll take it anyway we can get it, lol

Yep--that would be almost right for our every 3-4 year footer! But seriously, I do hope we still see this potential by the end of the week...if we do, it might turn into the best chance we've had in four years, lol

Now, I was actually talking about like the actual map that shows the rain/snow. Like when it looks like this:

Question...now when you look at ops past like 200 hrs...why is it all the precipitation look like huge swaths of moisture? (like somebody took a butter knife and slathered streaks of graphics on the map,l Is that basically the computer saying "eh, it might be precip between here and here" or is it because resolution is weaker at that range?

I'll hold on to this trend to the bitter end...lol We're just in February, so that one footer could still happen!