Maestrobjwa

Been wondering about that period...man I hope this can be a small kink in the +AO armor...that would be a small step towards a miracle, lol

While my first reaction to that was a primal scream, I do wonder if the cold would be enough to setup an overrunning event or something...But, let's just see if that general look stays there or not.

See and that's what I'm wondering...is it anyway it could bend just enough and give us something if we luck up and time said "bend" with precip? I know it would be a lower percentage shot, of course...but can ya completely rule it out? (and I'm also wondering if we've ever gotten any storms in an AO pattern this hostile)

I hope so, man...and I'd be perfectly fine with a winter of snow in 10 days, lol But hopefully the clock resets to a more favorable regime...I mean it's been 10 years since our last legit mod nino! I wonder why those seem to be so rare, anyway? Yet la ninas seem to be less rare (of course, lol). I thought neutrals could be 50/50, but...obviously those may not work anymore. So hopefully...an actual nino next time...

Otherwise known as 2000 hr model runs...lol

Yeah that storm kinda broke our hearts up here...lol

That's why I'm not gonna close the blinds on the winter until we get past PD weekend...I guess I'm (somewhat foolishly) still holding out hope for that time period, lol

This one hurts....I'm tryin' to kinda go through the "5 stages" so to speak for this winter...but the futility is hitting me today (I guess a part of me was holding out a little hope a fluke.) Just depressing today...with the absence of the winter white, life turns grey. Even the remotest possibility of snow brightens life...but knowing we may have to give up that already? Yeah, that's pretty depressing...

Yeah seriously though.....it was funny for a nanosecond, but then cold because of the reality over there...

Welp, I was holding put hope for a PD weekend miracle, but.....if that is no longer possible...guess I gotta start grieving the winter (and the 3-4 year trend. What a way for it to end if that does indeed happen). And I'm already fearing for next year if we either get this same pattern, or even worse draw a la nina. Man if that happens next year, that's gonna be another gut punch. If we repeat this ENSO state for another year...that'll be another. This is absolutely the worst that could ever happen...and I am straight up depressed. I'll move on eventually...but just seeing the futility of this winter play out in real time makes it difficult because you're constantly reminded how bad it is...and it seriously dampens the days. Hard to get excited about things...winter ain't winter...it's just awful. Every morning I wake up to more bad news about the winter and it starts the day off terribly. Snow=some happiness (during JF in particular...) I can't move (for many reasons) and cannot make a trip, so I'm stuck. I don't care if I'm ranting...I've got every reason to, atm...I just want this month to be over already.

Yep, basically farted out the shortwave instead of blowing it out...ack. Man we can't even get a little shortwave to work right now! Man I hope we can get a V-Day or PD weekend miracle this year...would love to be looking at a Day 7 or less threat by Friday or Saturday!

Indeed...I still have some hope for that scenario! (it could be the only way we can score in this kind of pattern. We just need a little bit of fortune...)

Dude...the Wednesday system next week is still Day 9/10...there ain't no "trending" at that range! (Just jumping, lol)

Alright PSU if we actually get something to go the right way the same weekend you happen to be out of state...I'm afraid we will not be able to permit you to return until prime climo is over!

@Ji We oughta call the weekend the congregational attendance wrecker...cause you know how folk (particularly the older ones) get around here if there's anything frozen falling on Sunday morning, lol

Hope we can pull off a PD weekend miracle, then (or something that week because after Feb 20th or so that's it for Feb (sure we could squeeze out an inch or two, but nothing beyond that has ever happened between the 20th and the end of the month, lol) Don't wanna look to March to salvage something...

In forum motherly fashion, she corrects the children's spelling

So are you cancelling winter after this weekend? (I was holding out a little hope and watching to see if we'd be looking at anything for next week by the end of this week. But if you're saying it's pretty much impossible for anything to work...I guess anything we'd see show up by say, this Friday, for next week...we shouldn't give it any credence, or?) Any chance of a fluke? (I know you'll say there's always a chance of a fluke...lol)

Nevermind...forget I said it, smh (I blame Bob, lol I took what he said about this kind of event USUALLY working for us a bit to literally, lol)

I swear the GFS has it out for us this year...lol

And really, in this scenario, would there really be that much to worry about? You'd think this setup would be simpler than anything else we've had...

If we can't even get a little shortwave like this to work...C'MON!!!! That would road salt in the wound (or perhaps bread and melted butter, smh). It's gonna be really frustrating if this were to also trend warmer like everything else has this year.

I know that's where my head is at atm! Maybe I oughta be more cynical given the pattern, but...I wouldn't sleep on the following storm either! Still a long ways out, but...if we score anything in this awful pattern, wouldn't a potential setup like that be the way to do it? Again, it's easier to lean with the seasonal trend, but I don't recall seeing this look this year (of course, we gotta see if the general idea can stick on the guidance until at least Wednesday first, lol But maybe it's a tiny window...)

I have a bit of hope for next week too...Can't remember where I read it, but someone cited a met as saying that the only way we can get snow to work in a pattern like this would be an overrunning event. Now, the look we see Day 9/10...I wonder if that would fall under that category?

I wouldn't say that for mid-next week yet...that High to the north has been a persistent feature in the GFS even by Day 9/10 standards. I'm keeping an eye on it (be it out of sheer desperation or because this would be a look we haven't seen yet this year, lol)