Maestrobjwa

Ya know, I really wish snowfall maps didn't go beyond like, 84 hours...lol

If F stand for frontogenesis...then yes!

So all of you have concluded that certainly this Day 6/7 solution clearly must be the accurate one...No matter that it was suppressed for three runs and jumped...no matter that it's just one run in an unresolved setup. My goodness, people. Taking a break from here until 0z...lol

Right...Never a good idea to live run to run on something like this (particularly at Day 7 still)

And quite frankly I have to wonder if it might be going come next run...A jump like that ain't a cave. That's a "I don't know what the heck is gonna happen" jump...lol

I hear ya (and I figured I was walking very close to the line with that post, lol) And tbh, I was just about to give up on 3-4 year thing because of how hostile the pattern has been...but then this threat pops up (and on a spot on the calendar where we have done pretty good at times!). Kinda hard not to get sucked in. As I said the other day...it's gonna be history vs the hostile pattern. Who shall be victorious? Stay tuned!

I wanted to say that for north and west of the corridor...but I resisted, lol

Oh yes...that is indeed why I said IF, haha But I believe in history...history doesn't have to repeat, but I find with our weather...particularly with snow...sometimes it does. It has been on a clock for 27 years when it comes to 1 and 2 foot snows. Sure, it could end at anytime...but here we are looking at a threat in a small window during an otherwise hostile pattern. And it takes place on a weekend where we've gotten snowfall before (but not in the last several years, though) Doesn't have to, though...this could go poof for all we know, lol But I'm saying... for the last several years, not much that we have gotten (at least in the corridor, and minus DC's foot last year) has been in between--it either does a little bit/nothing (that is <5 inches) or snows a lot (10 or more). OR...Perhaps a March storm would give us the every 3-4 year footer--but I have my doubts about that. Next weekend seems like the one window, but we'll see...

Something tells me that if this comes together right, the corridor might get a foot or perhaps a bit more. But of course I'm just basing it on history...lol VD/PD weekend...every 3-4 year streak...etc (and the fact that QPF hasn't been an issue this year) But, it's still early...so we shall see!

And it seems like if EURO is gonna make a change inside 7-8 days...it usually steps to it as opposed to huge jumps, lol

Well the fact that the op didn't quite make it all the way up this run...perhaps that's not so surprising. Still 7 days away...

Thought somebody else said that the 12z GEFS had the whole mix of solutions in there?

You sound like you've done this before, lolol

But the 12z ICON still showed at hit this time, did it not?

Even though we'd have to give up a winter if that were to occur...if it could setup the next couple of winters afterward, I could take it (kind of...we had enough NS heartbreak a couple years ago, lol)

And now I just saw a flash of lightning and a bonafide thunder role here in the city

Just popping in to see if thunder was heard...because, ya know...winter folklore and all that

The power of the tongue, Ji...you spoke this model run into existence, lol Yeah that's odd that it wouldn't be anywhere close in temperatures or otherwise...(and you'd think with the Ukie even showing what it did...this would be different)

Ohhhh no! No deal, Luigi! Unless you're gonna get us a double HECS next winter in exchange...we ain't givin' up what may be our only window of potential, lol

Ya we cant waste this....may be our only chance this season. I bet sometime screws us and it would be something ironic like too much blocking lol.. I agree that this may be our only shot...just gotta hope we have PD weekend history on our side! (I don't even wanna think about "too much blocking"...the fact that that is even on the table of outcomes is truly ironic. But in a regime like this, you'd think it would be hard for that to get "too much", lol We shall see...)

Personally I've been eyeing next weekend based on history alone, lol PD weekend...4 years since the last footer...ya never know. (so I wouldn't be entirely shocked if this one found a way to work out--but it would be pretty funny considering what we've been through so far, lol)

Man ya really can't say for sure how long it's gonna be It's not always a "decadal pattern" per se (except for the NAO, perhaps...lol)...just look at our history. We have gone through stretches like this before...and each one varied in length. If you haven't already, I'd take a look at our total snowfall history here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiDic26wr7nAhW0HDQIHW2nC-AQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo You'll find a lot of boom and bust all throughout with little degree of consistency...lol But the point is...this ain't the first time. And I'm not sure we can predict what effects a changing climate may or may not have on our snow chances here (but I understand your worry about it being negative...we'll just have to see)

I'd say...the overall look alone is enough to keep at least one eye on it!

I'd revise that to say the every 6-7 year snowstorms (or at least it has been...for again, 27 years, lol)

I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen in years. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough...