Maestrobjwa

Hopefully another neutral + minimum could be better...If you wanna look at history, I'd lean more towards average snowfall...all the minimum years hit that or better within a year...But of course, climate...so who knows.

Yeah you don't know my brain, lol Suckage is suckage...living through it is not easier. Just like we knew the +AO would suck...doesn't make it any better. Coming on here, having all the negative emotion reinforced...hearing forecasts of mild records everywhere...how the heck does expecting less make that better? Heck, I dread this for next year, and it will still suck if it happens. I don't think the "abandon hope" option works for everybody. For example: I will never trust a nina again and will always expect the worst. But that doesn't mean that all the crap that usually comes with a nina (close misses, perpetual snowhole, beaches clobbered, n + e cashing in) still isn't gonna be depressing. Low expectations don't equal things being pleasant.

So what is it leaning towards? Another neutral? (or nina?) And punting another winter?...Mercy...I'm hoping the solar minimum saves us next year. All the other ones on record seem to have given us average or better.

I'm actually starting to worry about next winter. Same... Expecting suckage doesn't make any suckage suck less...Just like you can expect your team to lose a big game...but it still sucks anyway. I know for me...lowered expectations doesn't always translate to lowered disappointment when it doesn't work out.

For me, the only "torture" of 55 degree temps with blocking in April is more a torture of regret and frustration--because you are reminded of how you DIDN'T get that blocking and/or -NAO when you needed it in winter. Call it...the torture of weather unfairness, lol

If we are now at the point where neutral ensos are no longer 50/50 and more likely to be bad than good, and we can only score in ninos...that's a sad reality. Seeing as we may only get like what...1-2 ninos per decade? That would mean we'd only hit above average 2 out of 10 years. Man I hope that's not the reality we're looking at...(and why does it seem like ninas happen more times in a decade than ninos?)

Isn't this the essence of why Ninas don't work here? If you're more likely to have a stronger NS wave...and have to rely more on that, aren't those kind of scenarios gonna be more likely overall? (Now I don't understand why it is that in Ninas, everything seems to want to shift east or northeast, smh) And that particular storm you're referencing...was that that one where the GL low screwed everything up? Or are you referring to the 2017 one when we ended up with two inches of sleet? Lol

Gettin' diggy with it?

Which day was that? Lol

If we're talking about historical trends...there does not appear to be one that offers hope for a better season than that: the solar minimum. I looked through BWI records and compared them with the estimated years that the minimum "bottomed out". There hasn't been a time where one of the two years surrounding the minimum didn't give us a decent (at least average) winter. And from what I can see...all but one time actually had above average snow (and the exception--the minimum of the 40s, still had a winter that logged 18 inches). So it doesn't appear that we've ever gone without the minimum giving us some kind of benefit...so we shall see.

I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, lol (I meant to add that I was excluding that year) Yeah but look how anomalous that is. I have trouble factoring that into what I'd expect from a nina because that happened just one time in 130+ years--so probably not a good idea to count on that. Safer to bet on what they've normally done aside from that one data point!

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

Will we ever forget the infamous Cantore out in the rain photo? Lol

And here we have our region failing at failing...had to ruin the shutout historical record, lol

Man NO!!!!! La nothin'! If I had to choose between a nina like 2016/17 or 2017/18...and a winter like this, I'm tempted to pick this winter. See low snow totals + folks just east/northeast of ya cashing in feels worse than low snow totals and everybody getting screwed. The close misses are the heartbreakers...and la ninas, by nature, seem to have more of those than the other ENSO states. Best place in MD to be during a la nina is the beaches (or perhaps Northeast MD). Otherwise, heartbreak...

Man, no!! Now look, if we are gonna fail, then fail properly...just go for the historical record (or at least not such an occurrence recorded since 1882). of not even a trace of snow recorded in February. But of course...I could see us finding a way to fail at failing, lol

Dang, it hailed here in the city too? Around what time?

What in the world? Ya know, something told me they were gonna come back...lol (but I turned it off because I had to do a couple things!). Just watched the highlights...that was truly clutch! Could this team finally be the one that can make a deep run?...

Was thinking something along those lines...lol That we may have to follow the yellow brine road to find some snow!

Do you notice that you sometimes write 0z like "Oz"? Lol

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=3056561437689538&id=100000071343185&_rdr To lighten the mood...I came across a story about this video. This lady is many of us here if we reach that age, lolol (oh, and she's still alive--and now 105!)

Layin the troll jelly on thick today, aren't ya? Lol

One thing to add a bit of hope for our snow future...Looking through our history of solar minimums and the winters around them, it appears there has only been one minimum on record (that is, back to 1883) where we didn't get above average snow either the winter of the minimum or the winter after...and that was 1954. (And even then we did get 19 inches in 55/56). All the rest had an above average winter within 1-2 years after the minimum. I think I like that trend

I hope you're right...because this has been a bit of a rough run even by our standards. Barring any March miracles, one warning event in 4 years is rough even for us, I'd imagine... (this is when you pull out data to show that this isn't unusual, lol). But being just 29, I guess most of my lifetime we have gotten a good punch every few years...and have not had a dry spell without a warning event (at BWI, that is...not including DCA's footer last year, lol) last longer than 4 years. So perhaps it seems worse because of that!

So would it be better to look at the raging +++++AO winters and the winters that followed?...