Maestrobjwa

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/411/20200531-have-we-passed-solar-minimum Well...this article offers the theory that we may have hit the solar minimum back in December, saying: "What can we take away from this? First of all if we take a look at the smoothed sunspot number, we first have to take a look at the sunspot number for each individual month. We can see here and on the image below that we had very low sunspot numbers between June and December of 2019. In January and April of this year the sunspot numbers were considerably higher. Based on the data available right now, we can estimate that December 2019 could have been the month of solar minimum. The graph of the Sun's polar magnetic field strength only fuels this theory as we could see earlier in this post how the sun's polar magnetic field strength has been dropping during the past few months indicating Solar Cycle 25 like already has begun"

Yeah it's up there with the worst...Prior to this year I had 1968 as being our worst year since modern times...I mean, seemingly the ONLY saving grace of that year was the Apollo launch (but perhaps there were some other positives, but from the perspective of this 29 year old...that year was just awful!

Whoops! Missed a word...But still--I've never heard out that happening! Wow, hahaha

Wait WHAT? They melted the windshield? How? Lolol

Yeah it's like it's working extra hard to troll us this year...mercy

No kidding...And yeah think of nina as nada too, lol Man I hope we ain't headed there...that would truly suck after what we've been through post January 2016! You just gotta hope it's weak or fizzles out...But it will be interesting to see what if any effect this deep minimum will have...

Did you mean la nina? (I thought la nada meant neutral...which doesn't seem to work well either, lol)

I'm not sure you can call that a "fluke" per se...it was a pretty classic setup, if memory serves.

Alright, so I'm confused...if we had this low of a sun activity last year...and we have a possible "lag" effect...when do we get the winter benefit? This year? Or do we start the clock on the lag this year and have to wait ANOTHER year? (I hope it's the former...because having to wait until winter 2021-22 is gonna kinda suck). I guess we can only wait and see...

Now I'm wondering about this...Are we heading out of the minimum, or does this year mark the official "start"? I'm a bit confused about how they measure it. Because if we get a "lag" effect, I don't know where the clock would start from, so to speak, lol

Now that's an idea...may look at that tomorrow!

But why would that invalidate it?...Are there not enough repetitions with the same variable (the solar minimum) present? Sure, any two year period could repeat a pattern, but it wouldn't be with any consistency. Whereas here...there seems to be at least a degree of consistency when one variable (the minimum) is present.

Maybe maybe not....I just thought by the numbers there seemed to be an either or pattern. Sometimes in those next two winters was always either average or above average. Don't know why or if it's just a statistical blip...but there does seem to be repeated with the exception of 1996 (where it happened just before)

So here are a list of solar minimums--counted here as the start of a new solar cycle--and the two consecutive winters that followed each one. I used approximate months for the start of new solar cycles that I found on wiki (yeah I know, lol That's why I just put the season, as opposed to the individual months--except for the winter months). Solar Minimum: January 1902 1902-1903: 19.8" 1903-1904: 25.9" SM: Summer 1913 1913-14: 23.0" 1914-15: 16.0" SM: Summer 1923 1923-24: 33.6" 1924-25: 19.2" SM: Fall 1933 1933-34: 47.9" 1934-35: 29.2" SM: Winter 1944 1944-45: 17.3" 1945-46: 26.1" SM: Spring 1954 1954-55: 10.1" 1955-56: 19.1: SM: Fall 1964 1964-65: 18.6" 1965-66: 32.8" SM: Late Winter 1976 1976-77: 11.1" 1977-78: 34.3" SM: Fall 1986 1986-87: 35.2" 1987-88: 20.4" SM: Summer 1996 1996-97: 15.3" 1997-98: 3.2" *****Now this was a bit of an anomaly...of course we all know what happened BEFORE this minimum, lol SM: Dec 2008 2008-09: 9.1" 2009-10 77.0" So I'll let the experienced minds weigh in here...but there seems to be a trend of either one winter or the other seeing average or above average snow. I don't know what that would mean for this year. Do we know where we are with our solar status? Did we hit the minimum sometime last year, or this year? I've read that nailing down the cycles precisely can be a challenge. But nevertheless...this is what I observed just by looking at the record.

Tbh, I can't salivate about anything after the last three winters...it's like crap has been broken up there in the atmosphere for winter, lol BUT...when looking back at all our winters surrounding a solar minimum on record, we never had a complete dud. In fact, all but 2 solar minimums produced a winter with above average snow. So I looked at two consecutive winters that fell either during or after the minimums (due to the suspected "lag effect" that's been discussed here) The lowest total was the 40s at 18"...which isn't a dud but exactly our average. Now I don't know how to make a chart showing all this...but I can post a list of the winters sometime soon (too lazy to do it right now, lol) But you'd think...that if we saw zero solar minimum effect last year...we'd have to see some kind of effect this year, right? (What are the odds we see no effect in the atmosphere?)

Of course my brain has been wondering if this has anything to do with it...but I'm sure it's not that simple, lol (Although the day with the coldest high temperature and the record low we broke on the 9tb did come at the end of solar cycles...but of course, tiny sample size, I guess!)

@Mrs.J You're about to be drafted as the sole caterer of the next forum meet-up...lol (if you haven't been already!)

Happy Mother's Day to all of the mothers here! And especially Mother @mappy I always view you as the somewhat mother of our forum...giving us firm scoldings and timeouts when we need them

So did I really see a few scattered flurries about an hour ago? Hahahaha That is fantastic!! Love it, lol

Epic for OC perhaps...lol See that winter, despite snowfall being around average at BWI...the near misses really stung. (To me those can be worse than getting nothing sometimes, lol)

You just said a bad word (nina)...Don't tell me they think we'll get one this winter

Agree. I was certainly getting some value out of it and some of the information shared by others. Was a nice place to kinda discuss the virus in a smaller forum than Facebook. But alas...all it took is for a few to derail it, smh

Yeah it's really sad...After seeing a political polarization even in THIS, I'm concerned that this may be evidence that such polarization has poisoned every square inch of our American existence, smh I mean I'm only 29, but...I don't remember another time where every little thing is polarized (even the dang weather last year, lol). But so it goes...It pretty much started off like this--with the whole "serious concern vs media hysteria=not that bad" debate. That was also somehow, some way, along party lines, smh

I strain to understand arguments made for "intellectualism" when made by those who choose to ignore even the experts in the field in favor of their own, uneducated knowledge (not talking about you, specifically...just to some folks I've seen and heard doing this.). I think mistrust of government unfairly gets cast on the experts officials listen to.

I think we have to give some leeway here when it comes to understanding this virus: it's a new virus, and even the best minds are still learning as we go. It's unrealistic to think information and advice won't change as things progress and we learn more about it. We simply don't know everything about this virus yet...so of course guidance is gonna change as new information is learned! Kinda like the weather, you adjust how you prepare and respond as you get more info. Now, that's for the virus...I won't speak to other reason for government distrust and such (rabbit hole, lol)