Maestrobjwa

Might be time to look to Thursday...

Fell on my face with this one...my apologies.

You're getting me confused with another...I was just too hasty and forgot to check the temps (no zr/sleet shown on ICON)

Tuesday was mostly plain rain, wasn't it? See I can't tell on the ICON...

ICON showing the fail scenario mentioned...cold air scoured out...as storm approaches. Dang it...

I hope not either...your post was the most bad news you've delivered since January last year, lol I mean to get nothing out of either southern wave next week because of something discreet and random would be a bit of a heartbreaker.....hope we can get something

Aw man...these random things messing stuff up are frustrating as heck...The heck is happening to the Saturday wave to make it weaken it, anyway? Dry air?

Have you ever considered that perhaps the reason why people focus too much on the precip panels is that the other panels aren't exactly the most understood by the casual observer? I know I open up those other panels and I don't know what the heck I'm looking at half the time (and don't want to bog folks down with questions here). So if the panels are akin to a foreign language, of course the precip colors would be the unfortunate default folks go to. Because it's like...blue, green, pink...what ya see on TV. Now...I'm not saying folks can't learn. But I'm not sure there have been any specific, layperson-friendly sources discussed in this forum that help break these things down a little more (like I said earlier, some of you are capable of putting together YouTube tutorials, lol)

Well let's hope that the NAM has the right idea on that wave being weaker...that's one of those annoying discreet details we can't see from range.

Oh great...and let's see where that NS junk is coming from....is that the Great Lakes?? If so, usual suspect...lol

Wait wut....lol What year is that from?

Well I think we know what tanked last winter...lol But it does seem that in ninas random little NS junk seems to be more of a risk

Yeah this is kinda wild...I'd love to know what the large scale cause of all this is that the models are spitting out such icy solutions. Something the the TPV? Another reason? Hm...

Yeah I'd think so too...One easy rule about our snow history: Southern moisture source>northern source, lol

So ya think a coastal is still in the range of possibilities for this one? And yes, a better run! At least it didn't cut much this time, lol

Ice/sleet storm idea still alive on the Euro...will see if the next NAM run still looks kinda lackluster, or if it was a blip!

I was just sharing a similar sentiment about reading models in the other thread. I had suggested somebody making a YouTube video or something, lol It's a bit difficult to find this stuff just by searching the internet. I know I'm a person who needs to see the pictures (and in motion, in some cases) so it can make sense how things move and interact.

So that being said...thinking about next week (Tues): I'm not sure what you can compare that to climo-wise. Because I mean...you have the tendency for low tracks to start being modeled as cutters and ending up under us (and the 12z suite so far has shown that same tendency). But now we got the modeled ice solution...where does that trend, I wonder? I mean, historically we don't get many ice storms...yet we haven't seen this kind of setup either. It would be tempting to say (with understandable cynicism) "eh, trends to rain" but then that butts heads with he seasonal trend of lows tracking under us, lol And it's not so warm that it turns to all rain, so perhaps that's less likely (more likely to get strung out or something than that, imo. But it is a strong wave, I think...so who knows?)

I see. Now admittedly I'm having trouble visualizing what's going on here and looking at the right maps...unclear on what you mean by "highways" (this is where an instructional vid would be helpful...heck maybe there is one on YouTube. If not, I'm sure one of you could make one!). Will do a bit more research...but I think I kinda get what you're saying.

I still don't get why p-type is an issue here...

Corruption! Corruption! *blows whistle*

Sure is...wow. Continuous silver dollar flakes...hey, we're getting rich!

Would be really funny if this is what breaks the Baltimore City warning drought, lol

Just came back in from a quick, untrained measuring...looks like we're closing in on 2 inches here! Temperature is around 30, big flakes still falling, snow sticking to everything: NICE. Wonder if we're in a boom scenario?

It would be funny if this time the Winter Weather ADVISORY busted low...lol