Maestrobjwa

Cuba used LAND ATTACK! It's not very effective...

I was gonna say...unlike some of the other long-trackers...not like they have a ton of time to wait!

Now see I thought the acronym was for polar vortex...but I assumed it meant something else here, lol

Too much sugar in the golf, obviously

I don't know much about tropical, but...I can't imagine there's a definitive answer for that right now. Just gotta watch and wait!

Of course this is just a model run, but my goodness...to hit that same area again would just be cruel. Like why that particular spot?? I mean it's like there's a giant hurricane magnet at Port Charles, smh

Interestingly enough...I'm not fretting so much about this winter in particular (kinda already written it off since it's a nina, lol)...It's the winters AFTER it that I'm more worried about. I just hope the 75% doesn't turn into 80 or 85% or worse...I can live with 75% because that's what we've kinda known--that translates to every 3-4 winters!

Tbh I do hope that's all it is...what worries me is the warming. The PAC jet has never been this warm this many years in a row, correct? What if that's the one factor (or if there are others) that's different than the snowless periods of the past? We don't know that... And again...how do we know this period that stinks isn't different from the other ones over the years? We got warming and maybe a climate we've never had in recorded history. Can we really know this isn't a permanent state? I've lived through our sucky periods...but being just 30, none of them have been this long (at least for "bigger" snow). We'd go 3-4 years...then we'd see a bigger event again. I'm used to that....this? Not so much. Particularly...given the unprecedented background state we might be in. We're working on 7 years (in Baltimore, anyway). And it's a Nina so it might end up going another year. Even the 70s corrected themselves after 7 years...but what if today is different: we got this PAC jet and Hadley cells and other crap I keep hearing about the last 5-6 winters. Can we really know this time isn't different, again, given the climate? Given that...why is it illogical for me to wonder if this period of suck is different from the rest? I'm just going off of what some of you and other Mets have been saying about the "maybes" of a changing climate!!! @psuhoffman was the one indicating that things might be different last winter (the "It can't even get cold enough with THIS setup?? C'mon!" posts). Unless I misread it...hearing that and Hadely and the PAC...is what kinda made me start giving up on bigger snows because the background state might be different from before... I'd like to hear an alternative scenario about how this isn't a concern...but as PSU said, it is chaos and we really can't know for sure.

What?

And if that's the case...it's hard to imagine there being any good changes. Like...unless the warming suddenly changes a previously unproductive ENSO state like a Nina to something that can work, OR if the warming enhances a nino's positive effects on snow (kinda hard to believe), how can this go anyway but bad? (Seriously I'd like to know a scenario that could still work) And if it gets to the point where our climo becomes like the south...I'm not sure what the point of following things is. If the best we can manage is what we've gotten 2 of the last 3 years...and that even somewhat deep snow is no longer possible...why follow? I mean I get that some do it for the fun of it (but if you love snow I don't know how it doesn't make ya miserable, lol) But snow is what brought me to this in the first place, actually...8 I started a bit of a 5-phases process over this potential already. As I shoveled the few inches of snow we got back once back in Feb, I was sad lamenting that this may be as good as it gets now. I'm gonna miss having the occasional chance of a winter storm warning. Yes, scenery snows have their value (my appreciation grows looking at this reality)...but I'm gonna miss getting even 6-10 inches...as well as the less often (but still used to be every few years) 12"+. There's no way to dress it up. Guess we gotta wait and see...but I'm preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

Oof...makes my lament look tame! (Insert "That's rough buddy" meme)

These showers from Henri?

To this day I'm still kinda ticked I missed out on it...I mean JUST missed! A 4 minute drive to the bank...and it happened--but I couldn't feel it because I was driving, smh. Missed out on that memory! May not have something like that again...

I remember being quite disappointed because I didn't feel it since I was driving...(still kinda am...rare event! That was really something else!)

That is very true! A simple yet enlightening point...

That sounds about right. Yeah one of those years was the bomb cyclone, lol In Ninas, everything is too far east or northeast!

Wait hang on...95-96 was the only above median snowfall in the bunch. The rest didn't work well here. (and what's 20-22? We ain't there yet, lol) 84-85 10.3 inches 10-11 14.4 inches (We lucked up with the 2010-11 late January storm...but missed Boxing day in the most nina way possible). More El niños than la ninas have worked. Some neutrals have worked. But the least likely enso state for decent snowfall has been la nina. 95-96 I think we can agree is an anomaly.

I do that because trying to guess what happens next and finding patterns in things to try to guess what happens is just in my nature. Not so easily satisfied just not knowing or having stuff have no rhyme or reason when it comes to desirable outcomes. Now I'm slowly coming around to the reality of chaos in weather, however...but I still would like to know if we see warning level snow again. Because if that is no longer possible I won't pay much attention to any seasonal anything or track any winter on this board. But we don't know yet...and I don't like that we do not know, lol It's like...I'd rather know now (and bemoan and vent out the disappointment over not seeing it again), instead of having to have wait to find out later. But again.....we simply can't know...yet

C'mon...you can't tell me it wouldn't fry your circuits and everybody else's circuits too! I'd like to know who here legit wouldn't be surprised at that!

Disagree on one point of that--we still have not had the one ENSO state that has payed off the most: moderate nino. Think about it...we haven't had one since 2009-10! 2016 was strong and gave us out last blizzard, but outside of that? Haven't seen it! I'd like to see if that ENSO state will still work today.

So tell me simply: if the pac will be bad every year from now on...would it only be during El niños that we can snow? Trying to get an idea of what setup we'd need (I'm sure whatever it is won't come as often as we'd like...but I'm still curious)

Hasn't it been that way since 2016? Lol

Ha...so Henri VIII (named storm) threatens New England? Haha...

Pouring once again here! But I think I see a few peaks of sun too

Now what exactly is a training event? (Google yielded irrelevant results, lol)