Do you think this is too soon as far as having enough cold air for something like a coastal? (Thinking about what a few others have said about the blocking not happening until the next week).
When it comes to ice, with me being in the city (northern portion of it), I never know how to guage an ice threat beforehand and whether it could actually be a problem even here.
That's what I thought! Seems they were conflating the two. I still feel like the dep -PDO ruined that. Are there any other analogs to -PDOs screwing with niños, btw?
I think it was the -PDO. Last year was a legit Niño so I don't recall a SER. But if someone has the plot @psuhoffman?)...Now the year BEFORE? Yes we had a full lat ridge most of that winter, smh Last year the -NAO wasn't even stable. Went deeeeep negative then shot way up.
This is gettin' old, man. I'd revise that to Baltimore north and east to Havre de Grace! Now, I'd like to believe Feb wavelengths are gonna be better for us (even more for you) than Jan, but that could just be logic, lol
It's funny how you can logically know it's fantasy range still...but yet seeing a run with one wave missing you south (again) and then the next being warm and north can still annoying the heck out of you because of recent history
So...do we look at the more snow south solutions the same way in February as we did in January? I'm also not entirely clear on what you all mean when you say "shorter wavelengths". Does that mean waves that make the weather, so to speak are literally shorter in length as winter goes on? Shorter and more dynamic?
Yeah I don't get that...I suppose we oughta just ignore it unless other guidance starts to show it. And besides, how often do we get ice when it hasn't been cold leading up to it? (Real question, actually...not entirely sure)
What do you mean "last bit of hope"? You're acting like we're heading into some total crap shutout pattern and didn't just have the coldest January in 11 years, lol