Maestrobjwa

Maybe not so much you...but the rest if the board trolling me for being pessimistic about future snow prospects as if it's not logical. I don't get that...My opinions are largely goin' off of what I hear from y'all!! (particularly the more knowledgeable posters). That and my own eyes from what's happened post 2016.

So...tell me again why my snow pessimism is illogical, lol

You're saying cold air is becoming a problem that might be more long-term. I mean ya don't have to hold back, lol (watch out when PSU starts using exclamation points, folks) Your warnings last year are part of the reason why I've gone more doom and gloom for future snow. Yet somehow...that's not a logical reaction?

Watch out for those Ara-rats left behind...

LLJ?

Don't all ninas not named 95/96 pretty much turn out the same around here? (With 2017-18 nickel and dimed 18" total being the high end). See the other ENSO states have more "chaos"...but Ninas are, historically, frustratingly consistent. I don't think any other ENSO has a greater proportion of fails than ninas, lol

I'm seriously thinking about it (as long as the mods don't mind!) Not making it to say 2022-23 is definitely the year...just to say 1) How sure I am about this winter being over (for anything above advisory event(s) and that I'd bet the house (if I were a gambler) we get no warning level event this winter...and 2) holding out a glimmer of hope to see if the whole every 6-7 year thing still works, lol And to see if we can still get something going in a non-nina state.

Because I don't see much sense looking past that...we don't know what ENSO we're gonna spin (or if even a Niño will still do any good). And also for the historical reason...another egg laid would match our longest drought (1970 through the 77-78 winter) without a warning level event at BWI.

Yes indeed he has--keep learning and growing, Cobalt!

I'm ready to start a Winter 2022-23 thread. I will completely own it for better or worse, lol

Very true.

Ugh...Today's Nor'easter is a gut punch...because you know it's coming this winter (if we get a storm like this) This is where Philly/NJ and north have it really good in Ninas! I'm already dreading it...eh, just gotta take the punches and stagger on (and not listen to weather news during the event)

Man IF/when we get a heavy snow again, if I hear one complaint about 20 vs 30 inches or so help me, lol

So...when do these weeklies get thrown in the trash heap? Lol I mean seriously, these things look absolutely useless to me (a more experienced mind can correct me here)...I mean are they just used to try and sniff out very general trends, or?

Can't remember hearing thunder this late in October...but perhaps I just never noticed, lol

Woooowee Quite a deluge moving through here now! Cats and dogs

You know it won't...do things EVER track a little closer in a Nina? Lol

So tell me again why predicting mediocrity this winter is unreasonable? Lol This is typical nina!

I actually feel unusually good after this loss...why? 1) This team will be better served by a loss heading into the bye week than a win. We got 5 straight, now we needed to be knocked down a peg or two so that we don't peak too soon. 2) History! In 2012, Week 7 (same week)...we got our butts kicked 43-13 by the Texans before we headed into a Week 8 bye! We all know what happened that season *I see other paralells...In 2012 we were hit hard with injuries that year too (like Suggs tearing his Achilles that summer), the defense looked atrocious (especially in the first half of the season...sheesh), and we had a few miracle wins. (Like winning 9-6 on FGs vs. KC, and barely winning on a DAL missed FG, and of course 4th and 29 later on) So...you just never know!

Kinda where I'm at. Hoping for at least some legit cold and a few scenery WWA events (can we get a couple 2 inchers? Lol) if we can manage it. That actually wouldn't be terrible for a nina

It kinda has...it happened last year, 2017-18, 2016-17....(list other la ninas not named 95/96 here).

Who said anything about everytime? I'm under no such delusion. I'd be happy with intervals we got that between 1982-83 and 2015-+16. We'd go 3-4 years, then get a 20 inch winter--and in between that was kinda mediocre. That's fine--it's what my generation grew up with--and thus it's what I'd come to expect out of this region. But this stretch we're in now goes beyond that, and is the longest since the 70s. Now maybe this will even out I don't know...but with all the climate talk I'm not so sure. So in summary...this is a longer interval than some of us born post 70s have seen in our lifetime. (I think between 1987-1993 may have been about this long)

Wider shot here. I read this as saying that 70% of la ninas have below normal snow, and 60% were warmer than normal.

What's the rub on him?

Now someone explain to me...how the "It's only October" response works when folks start writing off this winter...when the la nina statistics look like this: (this is from the last 10 la ninas) I mean...isn't this like a slam dunk seasonal forecast given that only one aberration is 95/96?...I mean ya barely have to track because you know what it's gonna look like pretty much, lol Now the other ENSO states seem to be less predictable around here...