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Maestrobjwa

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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa

  1. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah I'll pick...none of 'em! One ready to screw up another
  2. Maestrobjwa
    I'm not looking for 100% probabilities, though...I think ya got that part wrong. I watch model runs like sports: A good model run is like when your team scores a touchdown. A bad one is like when your team throws a pick-6 or something. I feel good or bad about a run accordingly. And just like you try to discuss and figure out how your team can make a comeback, why is it any different, then...to do the same with model runs?
  3. Maestrobjwa
    Now hang on...this part here simply isn't true. I'm not looking for bs on here--just a better idea of what might happen, what we need to see for a better chance, and what went wrong in a particular scenario depicted on a model run. Not looking for anybody to sugar-coat anything. I have no idea of "iteration of the same general question" Like...when? I can understand last year--and I've tried to keep that in mind: don't ask hyper specifics. But this year? This past storm I did nothing but ask "What needs to happen here"? Not whether it absolutely will. I look for positive trends just like everybody else. Like who here doesn't? Lol So forgive me if I don't know the rules And dang it of course everybody would LIKE to know what's going to happen, even though we know weather is gonna weather. There's much I still don't understand and I'm trying to learn how stuff works. But yet where do ya learn...ain't no other forum that talks about any of this, and it ain't like there's a bunch of online lectures (if it is tell me). Now as for the other...yes I do get miserable when things don't turn out well--absolutely. But you cannot tell me I'm the only one here that does...are you kidding?
  4. Maestrobjwa
    Ah dang it what has Chill done...lol
  5. Maestrobjwa
    Not sure that boundary gets pushed far enough south...and the GFS is doing nothing of the kind. This winter if the GFS ain't doin' it it ain't happenin', lol
  6. Maestrobjwa
    Listen I'm learnin', alright? Ya kinda called me out on that last year and I heard ya...just taking a bit and I'm learning with some experience I'm slowly embracing the chaos of all this It's just my nature to wanna know what gives the best CHANCE of something happening, what helps and what can get in the way...what might go right, what may go wrong...why something is happening. I'm a big WHY person. So if we can't expect anything...what good are LR discussions, then? Good patterns can mean nothing, bad patterns can mean nothing...so what's the point?
  7. Maestrobjwa
    Don't claim that...PLEASE
  8. Maestrobjwa
    Dang I didn't know we had that problem in niños too...why is it then that they tend to work a bit better? And what effect does blocking have on muting our progressive tendencies?
  9. Maestrobjwa
    Ya talking about in regards to the nina state or just in general?
  10. Maestrobjwa
    When the snow looks like fog you know you're gettin' blitzed, lol
  11. Maestrobjwa
    About to go to bed...but everything covered now! Just inside the band here! Definitely some blowing snow from the coastal cranking up. Haven't measured, but eyeballing 1-1.5" so far.
  12. Maestrobjwa
    Hey look! Lol Baltimore on the right side of the fringe! Thought the snow looked kinda blowy...lol
  13. Maestrobjwa
    Funny story...I actually forgot more was coming tonight and was kinda surprised to look out my window and see some surfaces cave, lol Huh...
  14. Maestrobjwa
    Yeah definitely far from the rational side of the brain, lol No matter how much I try to tell myself that this doesn't have to matter so much...that less rational part of the brain still wants to throw a fit. And yeah, I'm like you--I'll take one big HECS all day because they are indeed special. And yeah, I've lived here all of my brief 31 years...but I've been actively tracking on here for about 7-8 years. Ignorance was bliss...the misses still hurt but at least I didn't know the model runs yet, lol But perhaps time will take some of the sting out of these misses (and thankfully you only hear about it for a couple days!) Anyway, thanks for your thoughts!
  15. Maestrobjwa
    Hey it's making a comeback on 18z
  16. Maestrobjwa
    Ya know, I think what other people get, and having to hear about it through various things (TV, phone notifications, etc) bothers me much more than if the whole thing had whiffed everybody. I swear everytime I see it I wanna throw something, seriously. So a month where I get 10-12" can be dampened if 3 storms that include a blizzard just missed while I sit down here with consolation flakes. That is where the ROI is terrible...yet I feel like I have no choice because I need it to snow and, even more so, need to not see storms just miss...for such impacts mental health either way. Nothing worse than the emotional hangover from misses like this one. I know there will always be places that get more in any given season...but when you're sitting in your own 6-year "bigger one" drought, it sucks to keep watching the big ones miss. But I hear ya both though...finding ways to be grateful for what we DO get. As someone said, if we didn't know what was going on elsewhere, we'd be happy with a 10-12" January, lol
  17. Maestrobjwa
    Got some nice SN falling now. Trying to enjoy it...
  18. Maestrobjwa
    Lol And not just the TV...now I see the dang news notifications about it, smh VigIrously swiping away!
  19. Maestrobjwa
    Marcus would be proud Who? Lol
  20. Maestrobjwa
    I thought the ICON started to show something like that at the end of it's run.
  21. Maestrobjwa
    Listen, my expectations are based on what I've grown with. I don't expect snow to work out every year...it was never like that. But what DID happen? We'd get a foot every 3-4 years, and 2 feet every 6-7. And then you might get a 6-8 incher somewhere in between. So the bad years were a bit more tolerable because they would have a good year in between. No stretch had been this bad. So,;as both you and psu said, this stretch is a bit worse than usual--thus the reason for my frustration.
  22. Maestrobjwa
    One thing I have considered about the last 6 years: 4 of the 6 have been ninas, if I'm not mistaken. (2016-17 & 2017-18 were ninas, right?) Now maybe that's just a random fluke that would explain our recent struggles. Now the 2018-19 weak Nino that wasn't...I'm not sure we can count that. It was so weak that it never "coupled" per se. I am kinda keyed to see if next year is a legit Niño. But like you said, if that won't do it I don't know what will!
  23. Maestrobjwa
    Just want this weekend to be over with...I'll restrain myself from throwing something at the TV if I hear about the bomb cyclone pummeling other places, smh This is absolutely awful
  24. Maestrobjwa
    I had already given up on this winter before it started. I almost wanted to start a Winter 2022/23 thread, in fact (almost did) I wanted to completely skip over this winter. But then the January "nina with an stj" pulled me in because I thought the lack of stj was a mian problem in ninas. But no...we had one but the ninas is still Nina-ing. But man, even if you know it's coming, it still sucks to live through weekends like this. And it's been SIX years, dang it...SIX years. Worst lack of deep snow stretch we've been in in years...I can't get a dang warning level event in my yard. This is 6 years of pent up depression and frustration...if it can't happen this year, I sure as heck hope it happens next year.
  25. Maestrobjwa
    Oh for real? Nice! Which pieces?
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