Maestrobjwa

Hey I'm with ya on this one...that period of time has always interested me more than this weekend...albeit perhaps this weekend can still get a little something!

Not sure you can call that a "hit' per se...cold chasing precip and all, lol BUT, it does continue to look stormy around that period but way too far out to know how

Sometimes, I'll check the models first, then decide if I wanna come on here, lol

Either that or I'd settle for that turning into a nice 50/50!

This. That's what was frustrating as heck last year. I think one storm that January we even had the low tucked in at the coast but it was just too warm! (And PSU was using his exclamation points, lol)

So you're saying that an NS dominant pattern doesn't have much to do with our struggles? Forgive me, but after being on here as we've had 4 ninas in the last 6 years...and the problem I repeatedly see IS that ns dominance making things more difficult (and yes spinning more you-know-whats), it's hard not to draw thar conclusion. And I'm not saying other enso states can't fail. But it seems to me that the ninas have the most junk to deal with. But that's another debate, I guess: Which ENSO state is the most hostile?

I never mentioned Miller B in my original comment... @WinterWxLuvr responded with that! I was thinking more about the NS dominance of Ninas and all the vorts screaming across and such. Now one thing I have learned that an stj in a nina doesn't mean too much without blocking...and also that it can be interfered with in a NS dominant

Man y'all ain't puttin' this on me...I ain't start the Miller B thing...I just said nina, lol

Yeah but if it's a better pattern is it really the same odds? If you're in a pattern (i.e LA nina) that has more misses than hits, I'd argue your odds are better just by having less junk against ya. No guarantees...just better odds. Just like if you have a block your chances are better without one. So if ya have SS dominance your odds are better than NS...

I ain't start that, though @WinterWxLuvrbrought it up. I was talking more about the NS dominance messing stuff up. I see that there's more to it, though.

Hey I do the WDI around here My WDI says we are indeed due for a big one...but not sure if this month or next year...

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

Sounds about Nina!

The ns could phase into it if the ss stream wasnt so far ahead of it so you need a bit more west dig . Was close to being a monster. Also February storms seem to not be suppressed as much typically Ah so the ss is actually ahead the ns, eh? Would be a more interesting wrinkle since all we saw last month was the reverse, lol

Color me skeptical...feels like we've said that a lot this year with these kind of sloppy phase jobs too dependent on the NS not messing something up, smh

I'm already ignoring the V-Day threat...lol Not saying something happens on PD weekend but it does look stromyish way out there...

Did you mean well north? Lol

A KU for who though? Lol

That's been the running theme this season, lol But I'm guessing that's normal in a nina?

HA...well that was a doosey of a euphemism, lol Hadn't heard that one!

I always like a pattern change window better for a storm than the middle of one...I'm more interested in that period (but of course we're still a good 6-7 days away from even considering it, lol)

We actually had a -AO/-NAO for a good part of last winter, if I'm not mistaken. Just not enough cold air (and the tpv splitting into an unfortunate position).

Good sir remember how much runs that far out change. It's useless to get hung up on every one that far out. All you can look are the larger scale, pattern features...Not that all us fully understand those things, lol And sure it's easier to look at the precip maps--but nevertheless these computers are gonna jump around with "details" (it's so scattershot you can barely call it that) even more at this range!

Yes they are...one lesson I learned from the 2018-19 season!