Maestrobjwa

In Ninas we're always "almost" getting good things. But we're always too far north/wrong side of the bay. And the same people (the south and east part of the forum) get good events in ninas. And yes, has my yard had some bad fortune? Yes. A couple times a few ticks north and it's 6+...so maybe I am a bit sour. Even so...to go this long without one that Central MD can cash in on is kinda bad. I do agree that we've got unlucky with blocking and temperatures the last two years...2020-21 good blocking bad temps, last winter good temps no blocking, smh And to your point about base climo...When was the last time we went 7 years without a warning event? Last 30 years that has not happened. You'd have your poor years then a boom year (a year where you get something 6+ inches, or a foot) a couple more lean years, a boom, etc...But the last in the last 7 not one that produced more than a few inches at a time. My idea of our base climo is the last 30 years. You got a good one every 3-4 years...I'm used to that. These last 7 have broken the pattern big time--and included more ninas than any 7-year stretch we've had since the 70s (those who were around know how mediocre those years were)That's worse than our base climo!

Trying not to be upset about our winters anymore...but I swear everytime I see a tweet about the frickin' long Nina still going strong...it's dang depressing, I'm telling ya. It kinda dampens whatever great mood I'm in, and I hate that it has that much power. Ya know I read something the other day about Ninas potentially becoming more prevalent? (Just a theory, but still). And thinking about last winter looking just like the last two is crap. But maybe just not tracking will make it a bit better. I know it's just June but my brain keeps going to next winter imagining what's gonna happen. Ya wish it were different, nut...I have control over it. Ya just wish it were different...but it ain't. It's not right, but And I don't travel great right now...but eventually when I'm in a better life position I may just have to take the advice and make a trip north (or heck, drive down to s/se Maryland in January) to see some good snow. Meanwhile, just gotta find a way to suck it up and not dwell on it (not easy to do, lol)

Wooooooooweeee!!!! That ought go up for severe photo of the year so far!!

The summer version of the winter shaft, lol So. MD has been the place to be for snow AND severe!

Dang streetlights...guessing I won't see too much!

Lol For the record I've never seen a tornado...kinda want to see one, but also kinda not for the damage! Fascinating phenomenon

Yeah it's a tough pill to swallow after the frustrating winter some of us had...it just sucks!

Sure that ain't wishful thinking? Lol Wondering if we oughta just resign ourselves to nina part 3

Frickin' awesome!!!

Not a drop...nice severe cloud day, lol Is southern MD/Nova a better spot for severe than north? Or do I just have a recency bias?

Frickin' awesome! (Although I'm sorry if your roof has damage)

Shoot...looks like Baltimore missed this one to the south. Dark skies though, lol

BOOOOOOOOOO....dag nabbit son of a frickle! Man I might not sniff more than advisory snow for another two years, smh Well, at least YOU'LL have another great winter. Otherwise...coastal scrapers, no southern stream, GL lows yanking storms nothwest, being caught in between bands, and overall mentally exhausting tracking...It's like frickin' groundhog day and I'm so tired of it. (I'm sure my posts may feel the same...lol) And yes, I know we'll always struggle any any non- modoki enso, but to keep getting stuck with the enso state that gives us the most trouble out of all of them outright sucks. And while I agree with PSU about the totals for those season, the snowfall numbers don't really tell the whole story: HOW we got there. Ninas are good at ending up with median or even average...but they get there by mainly advisory events. 2 inches here, 2 inches there. There's little "punch" (live 6"+) for places other than the beaches and occasionally the higher elevations when we get to March. Ninas are the only enso state where we can't really get a good track for that kind of thing other than the beaches. At least the other enso states are more of a coin flip and we don't have so much working against us for a decent storm. Ninas remain the most difficult to get anything more than a few inches at a time--no big hits (12+) or even moderate hits (6+) have happened in my yard for well over a decade. I would like to see a chart of how many warning events happened at BWI during ninas vs other enso states. I'll bet the other states have more...lol If I'm wrong about this...why shouldn't I put a ton of weight on what I've seen since 2016? Too small of a sample size? I mean I've tracked 4 and not 5 Ninas and honestly I haven't seen any difference in how they've behaved! I also have a bias...my yard has largely missed the last 7 years, so maybe I'm a bit salty about that...

Happy Mother's Day to all of the mothers--biological, adoptive, or even in this forum (that's you Mother @mappy ) You all are a blessing, and us men folk could never do what you do the way you do it--have a blessed day all!

Sorry a bit late with the response here. Now, in regards to the Nina hate being overblown: Now from my eyes, the ninas seem like the most frustrating in which to track things? I think of all the futile tracking 2016-17, 2017-18, 2020-21, and 2021-22. Thinkjng the myriad ways the NS got in the way...that happen in neutral or niño? GL lows, NS dominance, (and little to know SS) are fails specific to ninas are they not? Perhaps the Nina hate comes from the way (which is often the same) that we fail as opposed to a statistical coin flip of above or below average.

True?

Man what the frickle they talkin' about? Unpleasant for who?? Lol

Niiiiice!! That's pretty awesome! And I'm sure this has been discussed and debated much lately, but...man I still don't remember mid-Arpil/early Mays being as cold as the last 4-5 years! But perhaps it's just recency bias? (Not that I'm complaining...heat and especially humidity can wait however long, lol)

Nah I ain't startin' it for the same reason I didn't last year: Just in case I'm wrong, lol Now if I had last year I woulda won that gamble!

I'm sure you do, lolol Ninas are the best thing to happen to your yard!!

I'm tryin' not to doom next winter already, but everytime I look up ENSO everything says "La Nina restrengthening" and "triple dip la nina" and has la nina year analogs...not encouraging in the least. One thing last winter taught me is that they all behave in a similar msnner--last winter went just as the other la ninas: nickle and dime, coastal scrapers that only hit thr beaches, and too much NS interference...same. dang. Thing. (Yes I know, 2000, 2006...but we ain't had anything good happen in one since that fluke in 2006.) And here we are again. This is terrible...life is to short to be losing so many winters in an 8-year span. How long we gotta wait? This is bad even by our standards. Awful.

Dang it all, I tell ya... https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cooling-warm-cold-season-forecast-fa/ Top line: "La Nina has defied its breakdown in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Cold anomalies are for now stable, extending their weather influence into the Summer season. Changing patterns in the tropics are also hinting at a possible La Nina influence for the cold season of 2022/2023." Man that's a gut punch...mercy. I mean I guess there's a chance it weakens during the winter, but who the heck knows?

Sorry I'm gonna try...just seeing that deep blue still there kinda got on my nerves, man. We shall see how it looks in July/August...

I'm telling ya if we get a 3rd consecutive nina...it might be the longest big snow drought since the 70s. Well, for my yard anyway....Some of you tried to tell me before this winter began that I was jumping the gun...but lo and behold look what happened! Busy NS train of vorts with no space, coastal scraper benefiting CAPE and other beaches...textbook. Exactly the kind of thing I expected going in. Forgive me if I'm not convinced ninas won't behave differently. But I suppose it's still better than no snow at all...not many ninas are complete shutouts. It's just...ya still want a little more SOMETIME.

I mean that would be kind of anomalous, no? When's the last time that happened?