Maestrobjwa

Now this I'm genuinely curious about (NOT with any expectation it'll do one thing or another, so don't say that, lol) but legit wondering what it'll look like. Strong volcanic eruptions and the weird weather effects I find kinda fascinating (especially after learning about Tambora...man that was something else!) And now this time instead of ash we have...water vapor? Hmm

Listen man I'm sorry--I was way too harsh with my last post. That wasn't fair to come after ya like that--that was completely wrong. Be optimistic, it's a good thing. I respect that and I respect what ya know and I respect you--you're a good 20-25 years older and I oughta be a little more respectful of your insight/wisdom. Ya helped me out with the H5 map last winter and I appreciated that. I'm naturally a little more cynical by nature to a fault...But if ya need to put me on ignore, so be it. I'm kinda done with me too, tbh. I won't be posting much this winter anyway unless it surprises (and even then just straight questions about...whatever is happening on models. I know the deal here now. I'm kinda complained out even if the suck is still gonna be crappy--it happens). 7 years has taught me a lot, and after all my venting...I'm kinda okay with things now--even if in the moment whatever fails we may get will still be disappointing. It kinda is what it is...Besides, all the fails I've seen have shown me how hard it is. Just be happy with what you receive...one of these days I'll learn that. I'll try to be better.

I think history can't be ignored either

Appreciate the sentiment!

Something to consider, sir: Ya ever consider that some of this is not looking to be "talked off the ledge" per se, but merely venting? Think about it: Where else can any of us blow off this particular brand of steam and people actually know what the heck we're talking about (or the obtuse emotions involved, lol). There's literally nowhere else! Now, I get it: you and others may be at a point of acceptance...but, we ain't all there yet. Nor are we all of the "complaining won't change it" mindset either. Mind you those are probably healthier mindsets to some degree...but all the ranting is just a processing of emotion--not hoping somebody says otherwise. I mean we're all lookin' at the same regions, ain't we? Lol But I also get the annoyance with it at times for some...don't wanna hear that all the time. It's a balance... Now personally, believe it or not I'm closer to your position when it comes to this winter at least: get what we get, very low bar (in my case I'll barely track unless things look legit different...which is hard to believe, lol).

Funny thing is, you guys have out-snowed Baltimore since 2016, believe it or not! Lol

I actually cannot at this point...for various reasons I'd rather not go into here. I'm sure saying "just move" is well intentioned, but...everybody's situation is different. So...no choice but to hope for a change...or at least an improvement back to some level of what we used to have!

Did it ever suck this many years, though? I hear the refrain "the city sucks for snow", but I've been living here the entire time and have never seen it be this bad. I mean we always had a good year every 3-4 years or so! What changed? And yes if I could...I kinda like the Cockeysville area. Wouldn't want to be that far from the folks in their later years...but yeah I'd go there or maybe a tad north.

Either that or ignore it altogether, lol The suckage may feel better if we don't track it for days at a time! Hey, maybe we shouldn't even call them "threats" anymore...but "hopes", lol

I see...well, that's unfortunate news, but it helps to hear about this now so I know what to expect. Oof...

Little bit of snow can indeed make nice scenery...and I'm learning to appreciate said scenery snow a bit more. But man...I just feel like the occasional bigger snow we used to get is just being taken away, man. Like just once to have stuff to actually shovel...my 20s and younger had those moments interspersed between the mediocre snows. But it's just all light now, and I miss the warning snows so much, man...snows you could feel to your ankles or higher, steps blanketed, piles on the grass, right now all I got is memories, lol Don't tell me nobody else feels the same?

Lol I'll admit his post made me a bit sad. It would be awful, awful snow luck and a slap in the face after what we've dealt with lately. But listen...if we get to this time next year and it looks like that's happening, I may just quit tracking altogether. Now perhaps in 2024-25 we can try our hand with niño leftovers a la 78-79...if another la nina doesn't form al la 2011...oof. Glad he brought this up...expectations lowered!

Are you both referring to the volcanic eruption? If so...I mean I think I heard that a 1992 nino was ruined by Pinatubo...and if that happens again, that would be horrible snow luck...my goodness. Was the strength of this year's eruption that powerful, though?

I do kinda marvel at those that just enjoy tracking no matter what the final result is! I guess there's the enjoyment of the science/hobby side of it, eh? I know for me if it ain't got a shot at much, chasing the week-to-week, Z to Z model runs don't yield much ROI...in these instances the snow is all a ghost, we know that in our logical brains. Yet in some of our subconscious, we see a pink clown map and say "Hey look we've got snow! Yeeeeee....". Then you're exhausted...then repeat with the next threat, lol

Yeah it ain't worth it, y'all! I'm telling ya, lolol Every year I say I won't track as much...but this year may finally be the one where I actually don't! It is just not worth it unless you enjoy the science of it

So, hear me out...Wouldn't a Nina producing anything beyond like...last year, be considered a bit of a random anomaly? Given all I read on here about all the various teleconnections, I'm trying to pull myself away from thinking ninas are indeed a predictable sure hand. It's just that I look at the last 5...and going back to the ones over the last 50 years, and they all (except 1995/96 of course) produced the same results! At least...the same snow results in terms of the totals and type of snowfall. Now...am I putting too much stock in that? Hard to look at something repeat with a specific ENSO and not think it's more of a sure thing. But I'm trying to have a more open mind, lol

What/where do you teach?

Nice!!! Yep it worked

That is frickin' hilarious, lolol

Wait Feb 2021 wasn't a -NAO?

I'd like to discuss what fantasy range (or even 150 hr range) model runs and snowmaps do to our psyches...lol *waits for someone to retort "I'd like to discuss you not posting" or something of the sort*

Now see, what makes me pull my stubs of hair out is how we completely wasted all the low solar we had 3 years ago. Oh sure the -AO/-NAO seemed to respond in 2020-21...but whoops, not enough cold air, and the PV split in the wrong spot and went into TX, smh Mercy

Ain't nobody told you to come in here, lol

Yep. If we can get that or close...that at least will be a winter worth tracking. That's a historically more favorable setup. No 100% guarantees...but it's much better to track when ya got more in your favor. I do hope it happens!

Yeah there's another choice...ignore it entirely and track ENSO status for 2023-24, lolol You tell me why is it so bad to say when things aren’t close to being aligned...that the winter isn't worth tracking? I'll say that and people will act like it's illogical. It's one thing if it was a couple years ago and it looked like we'd have the AO/NAO on our side...at least there was a chance. Now it didn't work out that great, but it was worth looking at where we might have a chance. So now here we are this year, another nina, and no indices in our favor to help...why is it bad/illogical to just write it off, ignore it and track enso for next winter? Other than being optimistic just to be optimistic...in that case we can do that any year no matter what, lol