Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Do ya think we first started to "lose on the margins" around in the 90s? Or perhaps just the last decade as psu alluded to?
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Perhaps when you have time you could put together some comparisons of particular storms before the last 10 years where a marginal setup worked as opposed to now (maybe such a comparison might be too tedious though, lol But I would love to see some type of comparison)
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And the PV is kinda like this jello where you smahs it and you can't quite predict which part of it is gonna split where? (Maybe not the best analogy, but ya probably get my drift). Noticed that when we got a little unlucky in 2020-21 when the dang thing split into Texas, lol
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Whoops. I think I tried to hard to say something productive just to say it...y'all got me wanting to prove myself now
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Nice article about the current nina and upcoming nino https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-season-cold-enso-2022-el-nino-event-2023-weather-forecast-united-states-canada-fa/ Basically saying while the Nina is still pretty healthy it likely has peaked. Also noted warming in the western region since October
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Hm...that -PNA persistence could explain why even the Euro/Eps aren't spitting out the pretty looks they were. So I could be wrong about what I posted earlier...still gotta wait and see in future runs if our favorite blue ball in the pac starts reappearing when the run gets to the week of the 11th. For the record: A productive post.
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Not the "only thing"...not even close. Did I not share things earlier? Talk about the what the ensembles were showing? Pattern change and such? I have been making the effort to be more productive and nobody is givin' me credit. But it's kinda whatever. For every nina post I'll make a productive one, how about that?
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Oh yes two winters ago that was just unlucky...that was our solar minimum blocking too, lol We just haven't been able to line up good blocking with other things. Man we better not finally get a modoki next year then have jack diddly for blocking...that would be just dumbdy-dumb
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If that's the case December is pretty much sunk again...unless we can get it to hover around neutral for a time. Crying shame we gotta waste all the blocking...but it is a nina. I don't understand why people give me grief in here for not liking thus enso state, lol This is what it does!
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Some seem to think there's been a can-kick, but I'm not seeing that. Mid-Dec was always the more favorable period, right? And today's runs are still showing the pattern change the week of the 11th, aren't they? Unless I'm not looking at it right, lol
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I just realized I shared the wrong image. I meant this one:
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Now, I'm still learning the colors here, but...If I ak reading this correctly, the end of the Euro looked pretty good to me (is it accurate to say the PNA improves that week and is neutral/slightly positive here?
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Donny on the spot! You're a roll today Interesting...looks like an example of what @Bob Chillhas mentioned about the big storms coming at the relaxation, lol
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Yes indeed. Another bullet point for the "Why ninas suck here" category, lol Overcoming a -PNA is tougher than I realized...and if that's the tendency with ninas...boo! Now I'm curious...what did the PNA look like in 1995-96?
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Thanks again for taking the time to make this--very, very helpful!
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Nah I don't want it going to far into Christmas week yo...don't let some big threat show up Christmas or boxing day again, lol Man I don't know what it is about that part of the calendar...but what December snow we have gotten in our history has almost never fallen there (what happened my birth year may have been the most with a few inches, lol) So...I'd prefer before the 25th
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Thank you so much for making that! A very good reference (Now don't be surprised if the DC folks ask for one next, lol Although I'm not sure how much different it would be for December)
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Baltimore
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Wow that is a great graph! Would love for someone to make that in my subforum as well (now there is a little bit of overlap with the Mid-Atl of course)
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If I were planning a Christmas trip hoping not to miss snow...that would be the time frame, lol For some strange non-meteorological reason, if it does snow in December, it only rarely happens then. Now the few times it has it's been a light event (a la 1990). So unless we make climo history for the timeframe...ya might be good for not missing a big one
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Now I'm guessing the time it takes for such relaxations varies?
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Shhhh!!!!! Stop embarrassing us
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Was just looking over that decade...I mean wow, to think the "runts" of that litter were 18" and 19", lol
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You know you want to Now what would will make ya push that button?
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Anybody else seeing this about the PNA trying to be more positive?
