Maestrobjwa

Afk?

Do positive analogs even exist anymore? Like frickin' bad news bears nina and nino...not one positive comparison! Incredible, lol Now...83 and 98 were super niños, right? So of course we don't have that...unless the pattern does indeed resemble a niño? Now of course 1992 ya had the Pinatubo effect (now ironically we're almost a year removed from the Hunga Tunga eruption--the effects of which are yet to be determined?) Overall yes it does make sense we want more modoki to not flood too much mild air East (thanks for the clarification there). So then...how does the niño-like look we got now mix with the nina? I'm not sure we have the final outcome on that...but is the torch for Jan really lookin' that bad, tho?

Foggy indeed...kinda cool actually Don't get fog into the noonday too often here! (although I think it did happen earlier this year)

Man is that it's bias after it's upgrade? Coastal action outta nowhere? Lol

Not sure if you've put me on ignore or not (I am getting better, btw), but I was gonna say...Is it wrong to suppose that it looks a little more split-flowy (i.e more nino-ish) past next weekend? Or something that doesn't look nina-like, lol

I'm using the 5 day rule from now on...if it's still there on Monday then let the reeling in begin, lol

You're a mean one, psu You're heart's a snowless hole You've got bad stats at every turn You want to watch the forum burn Psuuuuuuu-U! You're a super nina SE ridge and pac puke sandwich... With +AO saaaauuuuuce!

Lol That would be tbe biggest joke ever if we go from raging negative to raging positive in the same dang season

I'm telling ya there's a lot riding on that mod niño next year, lol

Now that too would be the second time in 3 years...have we ever seen 2 raging +AO seasons in such a short span?

And to think we just had a 1.8" winter 3 years ago...if that happens again do soon that would be so bad all you could do is laugh at it, lol

Well technically for OUR peak climo that's just at the start of it. I always view our peak window from mid-Jan through President's Day.

The more seasons I track the more that rings true, lol (What was the configuration of the jet last week?)

Ah...And I'm guessing with last week's cutter it wasn't extended enough? Lol

Is counting on a pac jet relaxing in a nina something to bet on? (or am I confusing that with the -PNA?)

That's kinda how 2017/18 went...MJO and ens staring while we nickle and dimed our way to 18", lol Honestly I've started tuning out the MJO and strat discussion...because that usually means the pattern ain't great! P.S. Ya really think something pops up in the mid range during a torch? Or were you just talking in general?

It's would be even more horrendous if this year were to follow the trend psu mentioned and end up in the single digits...because that would mean 5 of the last 10 seasons were single digits! Yeah we gotta break the trend this year somehow! But if not this year...the mod niño is our last snow hope, lol

Today there seems to be just one poster in particular instigating the discourse (and he won't quit either. I get the feeling this goes beyond just snow to the whole subject of warming in general)

Yeah it's kind of a virtual tick I have...(kinda like my parentheses...lol Dang it!)

Man what? Forgive me for not having a photographic memory to remember every snow total over last decade from an area that's not even mine, and somehow pick out all said totals by memory from 1000s of post. Shame on me! All I remember is your 30-something inches last year. Stray snark detected...lol

I'd like to see your snowfall numbers for the last decade...I'm curious, lol

I'm sure there's some denial here...and I totally get it. Nobody here likes to see these stats....but I mean, you can't dispute the incremental drop in average. Like I said, we had 3 consecutive decades have 4 single digit snow seasons...I mean that's the simplest way to see it. I mean yeah it's depressing, but what can ya do? All the more reason to enjoy the heck out of the big ones (and DON'T complain when we get them)

For us Baltimore folks...do ya have one for BWI?

Even without doing any math...all ya gotta do is eyeball the snow totals from 1940 onward. Prior to the 90s, you'd never see anymore than 1 or 2 single digit snowfalls at BWI in a decade. But then ya get to the 90s...you have 4. The 00s you had 4. And the 2010s you had 4! So yeah...feels like we've been suffering from this for awhile...with a memory skewed by the big snows, lol

Not sure if this means much coming from me, but what I'm learning is...Not a good idea to looking for any specific "trends" on a specific threat this far out. Way, way too early for discreet threats...For those, the 5 day rule really is better (see last week, lol).