Maestrobjwa

I feel like ya wanted to trip me up here...but I concede. An overamplified result would be the SER-NAO thing. I actually hadn't put the two together in my mind for some reason. Alrighty then, lol

Dag nabbit...well, that was a nice little bonus we didn't even think we'd get. Actually looks pretty nice outside. Onto the next!

You think we can get to that if the rates stay where they are? I mean that would be a frickin' win after what I expected here in the city.

Lol Look at this... it looks like Baltimore City was able to sneak under the very edge of the deeper greens, haha Not sure what this will yield, but I'll take that as a win

Let me go on the record by saying I never worried about over amped. Just what you yourself laid out yesterday with the SER-NAO. Otherwise I liked how amped the wave was.

I'm sorry but I'm just not feeling the Orioles this year. That sorry display in the WC round gives me zero confidence in our bats. They were softer than bread pudding and had zero mental toughness. I feel better about our pitching (still need an ace though). They're gonna have to win me over this year...because right now I am not enthused.

Well, my street has fully caved, at least.

I'm not sure about anything...except that this kind of block isn't likely to show a cutter. Bluwaves post talked about not just cutters but suppressed storm tracks--and that's why I shared it because that's what we've seen lately. And this fantasy run showed more de-amped suppression like we've seen this winter. And btw...if I had a worry it was just the SER-NAO link you brought up as a red flag for the future. So I'm glad that's not showing today.

I would bet my next paycheck that that will be a solution that would NOT show up, lol

Here's my problem: The solution it showed is the same trend that has been going on all winter. Vorts aren't amped enough, and they often sit there spinning under the block, and then when they do make it over here it's weak and suppressed. If that wasn't the seasonal tendency it wouldn't bother me.

Rates seem to be moderate I think. A few sidewalks caving

Today's snow hole has just bummed me out and put a damper on the day for some reason...and this is while I'm sitting here watching snow fall! Everytime you think you're past the negative ya find yourself slipping backward. But it's still snow! *Strains to be grateful for it anyway*

It's absolutely awful. I don't understand why anybody pays any attention to it, lol

Bluewave mentioned this in the NYC thread earlier, and it got me wondering whether this ahs something to do with the weird snowhole that's plagued part of this forum...I mean that's when it started, isn't it? Lol

We haven't had that problem in 9 years...I'd love to see that argument happen. Shoot I'll take a 1 foot vs 2 feet debate...

Yes sir! Been waiting 9 years yo say that again! P.S. You responded earlier just after I went past your place of employment right around the corner from mine, lol I'm always thinking "Hey PSU!!" and how far down you drive to do that. Now THAT is dedication to snow AND profession

I like how you just drop that out there with reckless abandon, lol

Oh I'm not as worried about any other fail mechanisms--just that one because that nightmare scenario would be more "this storm and storms in the future" rather than just a fail this time. Yes the 9-year snowhole SUCKS and missing to the south again would kinda hurt. But at least we would still be in the game in a future winter. I think I'm slowly learning to shake off the fails a little more and just move on to the next threat and/or next winter. Fail happens, ya feel it a bit for a day, then the mental/spiritual reset.

I have no idea why I keep torturing myself by going in the obs thread, lol It might just be habit...I think part of my time on here is more addictive vs. keeping up with the model runs and such...

But that there would be more of a luck thing as opposed to "that" problem, correct?

So then what makes next week a favorable period in light of the block just getting established?

Hold on though...one thing to keep in mind is not everybody has the luxury of just up and moving. Some people are where they are because of other life circumstances! Just wanted to put that out there.

What song are you parodying? And...yeah that hurts my feelings. But at least that wouldn't be because of too warm. At least ya know with a stronger stj you could still score like that in the future.

If there would be a fail scenario, I would MUCH rather it be that one. The other would indicate a bigger problem as PSU explained.

Hey @psuhoffman how real is the risk of the SER this go around? To my amateur eyes that may be the only way this fails (or at least...doesn't snow as much as it could have). A post from the NYC forum: Now on the ensembles you don't see that linkage as of now...