Maestrobjwa

Nah that was punch in a turd bowl!

Now today for example, I have no idea what I did in the LR thread to warrant this reaction. I correctly identified a PNA ridge, discussed suppression and such, didnt whine...like what the frickle did I do this time that was "dumb"? Now if I make an error in analysis I always invite someone to tell me. I don't learn by just sitting back and reading. I gotta participate in the discussion to see if I'm seeing things right.

That's you being kind? Every time you hurl an insult (i.e. "dumb ***"). And then...you repeat it, calling me a turd in the punch bowl and all that crap. You sure have a harsh way of being kind, smh

Here you go startin' stuff. I don't know whether you're just a jerk in general or don't know how to be kind. This post right here isn't piling on? My goodness man you already did that 4 days ago. Put me on ignore or whatever if it bothers ya. Yeah I'm tryin' to change, but this ain't helpin' AT ALL. Yeah I still wanna talk weather I can't help that. I'm gonna modify where I put certain things. I still look at ops and ens and weigh in to see if I'm lookin' at things right. You made your point now leave me the heck alone if you ain't got nothin' positive to say. I'm sorry I've become the periah here but whatever...I'm gonna get better at my own pace not y'all's.

What'd I do this time? Like what did I do wrong today?

Better than measuring off the dang concrete like I'd been doin' till last year, lolol

Thanks for the write-up! Gives a great explanation of things to look for on future model runs. Even with all the imperfections, this chance still is better than what we've had (0, lol)

This is why I said I didn't believe in suppression this time, lol SE ridge will not be beaten down quietly...and we ain't had any weak waves (which would be the only likely suppresion scenario), and this one so far doesn't look weak on guidance. Still a long ways to go, actually...

Yeah you right...it's very early. So I'll just say suppression would be befuddling--because that SE ridge would have to be flattened even further down to an extent we haven't seen this year, right? But again, anything is possible at this range and it's not a good idea to take anything off the table. Got suspicions, but no certainties.

Even on there--that's just a regular cutter that run

I wouldn't call this a Miller B. This wave is coming straight from the south.

Yeah I'd pretty much bet the table against suppression. So this either hits us flush or cuts--a GFS would be befuddling after all the SE ridge this season

@Ralph Wiggum Lo and behold the EPS goes and pops a...PNA ridge (did I identify that right?)

Yeah I get ya. But yeah the pac doesn't appear that it wants to go hostile either as of now. But, still a way to go, and yes--I think at this juncture the Atl probably is more important since it's only been our biggest snow nemesis, lol

Yep...pretty much a run. Still Day 10 though--very general idea

Meanwhile Euro got a little slider at hr 156...

Hey look! A positive tick inside 200 hrs (and not on an off-hour run either) Not yet a trend, but...we ain't had even this much at this range yet, lol Let's see if it carries over the next couple Zs... @Ralph Wiggum Why sad emoji? SER looks a bit better here, no?

So basically a Cat 5 under each wing? Sounds a bit turbulent

Canadian tried to do the thing...a bit suppresed this run, but at least it ain't show another cutter (every model run that DOESN'T show a cutter for that time frame is good..no, GREAT run, haha)

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say if next week does indeed fail it won't be from suppresion...I'd bet my next paycheck on that too if I were a gambler, lol Ain't no way with that ridge being what it is that the moisture gets suppresed! Now interestingly only the 18z gfs has shown a cutter...everybody else has shown moisture south. Something to watch, I suppose...

Whoa!!! Congratulations man! Well that certainly trumps even snow--yeah it's not worth it to have any attention divided to what's been going on. P.S. If it snows after your child is born we will certainly need to give it (boy or girl?) a username already

Absolutely agree with your point about the op runs and such. But I will say though...if you indeed maintain general optimism for the season even in the face of this...sir that is commendable!

And you know what? Getting modoki niño next winter might not even matter dude...like our historically best enso state. I mean...ordinarily you'd be encouraged by it but I'm not so sure it even works. And the SER...do we even know if that calms down next year? Smh

Now in particular I was referring to the SER.