At the risk of semantics...SO perhaps not "simple" but rather simplER? That is if you were to compare overruning to a phase event which is easiER? @CAPE or anybody else have thoughts on that?
Overrunning is the simplest way outside of a classic Miller A. You aren't worrying about any messy wave interactions--just moisture into cold air. And I believe we had that happen a time or two in 2014.
The troll job last February was just another indictment of angst against it. Gonna be the good news model for a change show folks for 2 days and then say oops sowwwy--it invented a new way to troll!!
With the other models they all backed off of Saturday and got better for Sunday. If the Euro backed off of Saturday here...it can either stay exactly in this spot or get better from here. We'll see...
Well at least it did tick the right way at 18z...now we'll see if that's all we get for the day or if we can get even a tick or two better. Or maybe I'm just a lunatick