Maestrobjwa

Shoot...since storm 1 seems to have limited moisture potential, if it can't get us at least a modest 3-6", I'd rather that fizzle to leave room for storm 2, tbh

Yeah I understand that...but what he was saying about the issue of moisture though...it seems like guidance is all dry despite improving at H5.

A met in my sub had an idea:

Hm...so are we kinda looking at a ceiling of the moisture potential with this one in general? And secondly...how unusual is this?

But if it follows other guidance...watch it be dry at the surface, lol

Sounds like this is a good study for ya

Came back to find this, hahaha

Nothing is ever guaranteed. I'm just saying I don't know if it'll be the usual Nina February monster SE ridge--because with that you have ZERO chance. Better to have A chance

A couple weeks ago I woulda spit at that idea. But this time around I'm wondering if we have a chance with the MJO in a favorable phase as well as a -AO...

Now see...I get storm 1 failing--it's messy. But c'mon man I hope we can get something off off storm 2. If we get zilch from both, that will be annoying even with lowered expectations!

Right--very few big hits come outside of the weekend...I don't know why--it just doesn't seem to work, lol

I find that our beloved forum is deaf to these warnings despite them being absolutely spot on (I guess it's not wanting to acknowledge fail probability when the models seem to "lock in"). We need to view this like it's still in fantasy range! I feel like wave 2 would be simpler...

Fwiw 18z ICON did that too and I wondered about that as a possible outcome. And we could say GFS kinda came north with the low passage too, right?

That is becoming a question I ask when we see models spit out these kind solutions: Like in court..."Is there precedent?"

That was the first one I thought of. I remember watching the rain hitting the window quickly turning into snow...Commutagedon! (can't remember exactly what happened in the forecasting that made that sneak up on people)