Maestrobjwa

A nice simple way to get something. Let's see if the general idea survives to Saturday

Yuck...you know, I'm not sure I like the idea of a KU in a nina UNLESS there's a way to avoid this outcome. Now I know he's in NJ so it's better for them, but...I don't know.

Someone got a KU in 2022?

Lol Listen everybody gotta do what's best for their mental health!

Alright so I didn't fully understand what you were saying after all, haha (layman fail, lol). I knew you meant it was gonna be colder but I didn't know about the nat gas terminology. Interesting that term means the inverse of what you'd assume!

Huge degree gain? Don't think we want that! (I know what you meant, lol Just busting ya about the warning)

A pattern at 14 days or less is not exactly fantasy. I know that the PNA which has been negative (not helpful) has crossed into positive territory for the first time this winter. That's current and could help. There are other details that @CAPE and others have highlighted here. But what I'm saying is analyzing the potential of a a pattern is different than trying to nail down a specific storm two weeks out. There are larger scale features ensembles can pick up on.

No way I could buy that those two waves don't destroy each other or do something else dumb like snow in the south, lol

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

I'm looking more at the pattern change/flow there....as someone else stated earlier maybe we can see how we do with more west-east as opposed to all the waves diving in.

GFS completely cuts off the SS interaction...mercy.

But it was never anything like the gfs though.

Icon looks like it has a lottle something with the CAPE storm...although the way the precip oriented hurt my feelings

I don't either. And to tell you the truth...the last two years have shown it can still be cold enough to snow. Our fails haven't been because it's too warm (or perhaps that's selective memory, lol). I mean even the threat this week isn't at risk of failing because it's too warm...just little moisture!

Exactly. DC having better snow than Baltimore north since 2019 makes no sense