WVclimo

3k NAM agrees with this same snowfall axis. Has areas of western Allegany County Md nearing 18” on the ground by tomorrow morning.

12Z NAM 12k with a QPF max from Cumberland to Martinsburg through hour 18. 0.75”+ liquid equivalent.

Awesome. Reading your post made me want to do the same thing. But chili is already on the stove so will probably have to be indoors once in a while today. Enjoy!

Light snow. All surfaces covered. 27.7 degrees.

34/10 cirrostratus in the southwest sky. 30.28” and slowly falling

Hoping the next few cycles can settle on a solution for the coastal. It's my call whether or not to open up for business in Winchester Monday morning. And then communicate that decision to ~25 people at some point Sunday afternoon. If the bulk of the accumulation happens Sunday, and Monday morning through 5:00 p.m. looks like nothing more than snow showers, we can operate. Worst case though is if my home 35 miles north stays in the comma head all day on Monday and I'm at work missing it. I've seen several models showing just that scenario.

44 hours now with wind chills in the single digits and teens. Less than 36 hours to go to see snow.

Speaking of localized excitement: 18Z GFS gives me 45 hours of snow.

Its interesting that early this morning LWX had an accumulation forecast on their Winter Hazards page that ran through Monday evening at 7:00 p.m. Went back to check for an update and it now only runs through Monday at 7:00 a.m. Guessing they are waiting on 12Z data ?

Looked up Marlinton to see where it was, and saw this on the Wikipedia page: Marlinton is named for Jacob Marlin, who, along with Stephen Sewell, became the first non-native settlers west of the Allegheny Mountains, in the Greenbrier Valley in 1749. New Englanders Marlin and Sewell built a cabin in what would become Marlinton, but after various religious disputes, Sewell moved into a nearby hollowed-out sycamore tree.

Comparing the QPF map and the Kuchera snowfall map above, Euro has 15:1 ratios for HGR, MRB and OKV. (Didn't look at any other sites.)

NWS forecast runs through 7:00 p.m. Monday now:

I feel ya. I am further north than your location and a lot farther from the coast. But I'll be pretty satisfied with a snowy day on Sunday and hope for a chance to add some on Monday.

Man, look at those sites in northern PA that 18 hours ago were modeled to get 12-15" and are now progged under an inch. The weenies there have a legit reason to complain.

Part of the final episode is on Youtube, with the February '95 snowstorm bearing down on us: Final A.M. Weather (Part 1) - YouTube

GFS gives me twice as much precip as you. I'm not buying that.

Sounds good. Biggest concern out this way is that the precip with the WAA fades as the primary dies and then the coastal is too far east. So far, models haven't been hinting at that so good to see that nice moisture on Sunday continue on the ECMWF.

Thanks Mike. I appreciate it.

Can anyone show how the WAA piece looks on 6Z Euro ? Curious how much of that total shown above comes Sunday.

Euro gave me ~0.70” on the 12Z Monday run and I got 0.20”. I’m not buying any big QPF until it’s falling on my yard.

Looked at local climate data today and saw that the record daily snowfall at Martinsburg for 2/1 is only 2.0". That's the lowest total of any day in January or February there. Hopefully that record falls on Monday.

And PD II in 2003. Probably the greatest analog list ever, lol.

This is QPF on the GGEM after the coastal takes over. For us “westerners” this is all snow.

One of my favorite Ryan moments: first season the O's played at Camden Yards. Early season series with Texas was disrupted by rain and in an effort to get in a second game of the series, the two teams played a 12:35 matinee on what would have been the travel day. Not many knew the game was being played and I showed up to a crowd of 1,200 people. Got to sit right behind home plate. Ryan started, but seemed like he was having trouble getting loose. Couple of walks and a few hits later and the Orioles had touched him up for a couple of early runs. #10 Mike Devereaux stepped to the plate and came out of his shoes swinging at a high fastball on the first pitch. The big swing pissed Ryan off. The next pitch stuck Devereaux right between the 1 and the 0 on his back. From my seat I could see the smile on Ryan's face, even as Devereaux groaned in pain.

First Topps card collection I worked on was 1971. They had photos of the players on the back of the card as well, which greatly reduced the space available for stats. That kinda sucked.