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WVclimo

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Everything posted by WVclimo

  1. WVclimo
    MRB finished December -0.4 with above normal precip.
  2. WVclimo
    ^ This 100%. 4” in Hagerstown and 8” in Martinsburg is a great storm at the front end of a cold wave. I would sign for this in a heartbeat. The previous runs of the ECMWF showed so much more QPF than all the other models. I expected a correction.
  3. WVclimo
    After all the advancement in numerical simulations of the atmosphere, AI comes along and uses the same forecasting method as Weather53. Except his database goes back farther.
  4. WVclimo
    MRB was -2.7 through the first 27 days of the month. Then a +14, a +22 and a +14 knocked that back to -0.7. The month looks to finish just BN at -0.2 or -0.3
  5. WVclimo
    Snow reaches our area 18 hours later on the 06Z GFS (and the 00Z CMC) than the snowier EC/ UKMET runs. I guess we’re rooting for the quicker solution ?
  6. WVclimo
    12Z Euro had snow moving in Sunday evening. The 00Z suite so far has this as a Monday afternoon “event.”
  7. WVclimo
    We usually get at least some snow showers/squalls with the arrival of a true cA air mass. GFS sorts of hints at it with the snows along the boundary as it drops through the Midwest, but the model doesn’t think the moisture survives the mountains. I would think you’re correct that if heights crash that much, something would generate on the lee side of the Appalachians.
  8. WVclimo
    Sure would be nice to have some snow cover to see what kind of temps this could produce.
  9. WVclimo
    127 yards rushing for Daniels
  10. WVclimo
    What kind of weathermen schedule a conference in the heart of snow climo ?
  11. WVclimo
    The model has 3 consecutive nights of below zero weather here N/W of the metros. Probably have to go back quite a ways to find the last time that happened.
  12. WVclimo
    Only 0.18” here this week. Hoping today produces.
  13. WVclimo
    The temps are the weeniest part of that depiction. Colder than Feb 2003. Colder than the second storm in Jan 1987. Almost on par with the blizzard at the end of Jan 1966.
  14. WVclimo
    Philly got another 3” on the 12th, after the blizzard. I visited the city a week or so later when the flooding happened. Can still recall seeing the Schuylkill River at bank full. What an extreme month that was !
  15. WVclimo
    After the main course on 1/7-8, we picked up another 4-6” event on the 12th. It was actually forecasted to be 8-12” but was still a great “dessert.”
  16. WVclimo
    Can we please get a 1/12/96 repeat right after this ?
  17. WVclimo
    Some of the remarks in that PNS are great. 5-6’ drifts across northern MD, 40 mph winds in Loudoun County, and 46” on the ground in Mt Storm, WV.
  18. WVclimo
    Made it to 44° this afternoon. MRB was -2.8 for the month before today. That negative departure is gonna take a beating the last 4 days of the month, but we should end up -0.5 to -1.0.
  19. WVclimo
    Snowfall in January is a pretty good bet. IAD has had 1 season in the past 50 years without measurable snow in January (2023). At BWI it has happened twice (2006, 2023). Even DCA has had some kind of accumulation in 45 of the past 50 years.
  20. WVclimo
    12Z GFS loses the -NAO post-200 hrs. Then comes up with a snowstorm for the beaches on 1/9.
  21. WVclimo
    I mentioned it the other day, but that early January 1970 cold snap was really frigid. I have some great memories of sledding on snow as hard as concrete. Here was the peak of it at BWI December 1963 is on that list too and finished around -10 for the month.
  22. WVclimo
    Fantasy-range GFS disagrees
  23. WVclimo
    Recent runs of the globals say those historically cold analogs like Jan 1977 may have been on to something.
  24. WVclimo
    IAD picked up another 6.3” on 1/30, after the surprise snow the previous week.
  25. WVclimo
    Dulles has had 18 January storms of 6”+ since 1964. Eight of those came in 4 winters (2 each in 1966, 1987, 1996 and 2000.)
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