CTP’s disco for Monday
SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Some fog may again form early tonight. But the invading and
thickening clouds and showers/storms due to the first of a few
pre-frontal troughs will probably preclude it from getting
thick, and the precip may actually bring the visby back up if it
does go down. The forcing tonight likely makes a long band of
showers/storms cross the area from SW-NE in the evening and
first half of the night. More nebulous forcing then exists for
3-6hrs before the next wave of forcing moves in from the west.
late night timing is against much thunder with the second batch
of precip. That precip will still be crossing the eastern half
of the area in the morning/daylight hours. This could stabilize
things for the first part of the afternoon there. But, the west
will likely have enough breaks in the clouds and moisture to be
able to cook up good CAPE for the early aftn, and TSRA will pop
up. This third batch of storms is the most likely to produce
some severe wx. The SPC SLGT risk covers all the srn half of
the CWA for Day2, and CAPE may be <=2000J. Main threat is wind,
but 1" hail also a threat. The tor threat is mainly along the MD
border where the hodographs get fattest and high mstr will keep
the LCLs lowest. PWAT goes above 1.5" (approaching 2") in the
eastern half of the area in the late morning and aftn hours. The
repeated shots of rain will lead to a risk of flash flooding
over much of the area on Monday, but mainly in the east in the
aftn. The strong surface low will move northeast across the
Upper Great Lakes and into ONT. Two pushes of drier air and a
gradual veer to the wind is expected in the evening and
overnight. So, some SHRA may linger into the first part of the
night, mainly in the far eastern zones.